Will we stop commercial flying?

Max Power

Well-Known Member
This one has largely been on everyone’s mind I imagine, it’s certainly been on mine. Will we stop flying in the US?

I have no crystal ball, no knowledge and no precedent besides 9/11. But on my last 3 day, I never had a load over 40 pax and that was day one. Yesterday was no flight over 30 pax out of 50 on normally full flights, with a bunch of nonrevs. I’m supposed to start a 6 day stretch ( 2 3 days) and my concern is on my MEM overnight, 800 miles from home, it’ll be “ No flying, good luck”

Not fear mongering, just looking for other insight. I think it will happen, personally
 

bike21

9-5 Ruins Lives
I'd honestly be surprised if we're still flying by this weekend. Finished a 4 day last night and Seatac was a ghost town at 7:30pm. Felt odd flying a trip when the world is basically on lock down and trying to be 'normal'.

Beginning to think a 3 week stand down is in order but don't have the slightest idea of the financial toll other than simply being big. Probably being negotiated as part of the bailout package is my guess.
 

BobDDuck

Island Bus Driver
and my concern is on my MEM overnight, 800 miles from home, it’ll be “ No flying, good luck”
This was the reality on 9/11. Crews spent up to a week in random places until recovery flights could be worked out. The good news (if you have CASS) is that I'm guessing the freight carriers will still be operating and getting home from MEM should be particularly easy. If they aren't flying either... ROAD TRIP!
 

Yakob

Grand Prognosticator Nominee
How much more of an economic impact will that have on airlines if they're flying 80%+ empty anyways? Seems like they are losing more by flying around right now.
I'm wondering that too. Certainly stopping all flights would damage the airlines but I wonder if it would be better than hemorrhaging money with every flight which I can only assume is happening now with loads what they are...
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
I'm wondering that too. Certainly stopping all flights would damage the airlines but I wonder if it would be better than hemorrhaging money with every flight which I can only assume is happening now with loads what they are...
I could see an announcement of "you have a couple days to get home and then air travel is suspended". At this point I don't know if that's good for me, bad for me, or if I'm screwed no matter what. I need to stay off the news it's making me massively paranoid.
 

Inverted25

Well-Known Member
I don’t see a wide spread forced stoppage. I could see the airlines doing it as a show of good will(they will get bailout money). Cargo and private operators will keep flying. Our schedule is packed with 91 and 135 trips over the next few weeks


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thevideographer

Well-Known Member
I'm wondering when the airlines will just have to call it because every state is going to have restaurant closures and major lockdowns soon. Crews are going to start calling out sick when a trip means you can't leave your hotel room and the only food option is Uber Eats (if the town you're overnighting in even has that).
 

Inverted25

Well-Known Member
Should’ve been shut down days ago. If they’re serious about stopping this, then transportation must be shut down. It’s terrible, but the economic damage is already happening. But maybe I’m in the minority.
There is no stopping it. That should be clear at this point. The goal now is simply to not overwhelm the healthcare system until they find a cure or vaccine. Good news is they are already doing human trials for the first vaccine in Seattle right now. In Australia they are doing a two drug trial in human now that in the lab eliminated the virus from blood samples. The other good news is that now that more people are getting tested we are seeing the fatality right is much lower then originally thought.


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Murdoughnut

Well sized member
How much more of an economic impact will that have on airlines if they're flying 80%+ empty anyways? Seems like they are losing more by flying around right now.
If they stopped flying right now they'd have to refund tickets of those not flying. At least by flying it, they can claim the pax missed it and keep the revenue.
 

Kingairer

'Tiger Team' Member
I wonder what the break even load factor now with gas prices allegedly much lower? Can an airline make money flying 60 people on a 150 seat airplane with cargo?
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
If they stopped flying right now they'd have to refund tickets of those not flying. At least by flying it, they can claim the pax missed it and keep the revenue.
Did not think of that, good point. So maybe it will hurt even worse.
 
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NovemberEcho

Dergs favorite member
I’m glad I never got around to booking my trip to Turkey in June yet. Hopefully by then this has passed and ticket prices are cheap.
 

FlyingAccountant

Well-Known Member
Should’ve been shut down days ago. If they’re serious about stopping this, then transportation must be shut down. It’s terrible, but the economic damage is already happening. But maybe I’m in the minority.
At some point, it makes sense to shut it down. If you're operating a 150 seat airplane with 30 people on it, you're obviously losing money by operating that flight. You'd rather it be parked on the ground losing no money in operation than having it fly around in the air hemorrhaging cash.
 
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