Time to short the Dow?


I've been keeping my mouth shut (mostly), but I'm also a big fan of the Shiller P/E. Stocks are up 30% since the election. That means the market is pricing for earnings to justify that in the future. I still don't buy that happening. I've been 95% in cash for the last 6 weeks. We tested the low on the last correction and went below it today - enough for the quants to say Bye, Felica. I think the smart money used the last month as a chance to sell.

My crystal ball shows risk from trade wars and tariffs, rising interest rates, sketchy political leadership, and expensive everything relative to historical prices. I don't see much to justify great earnings numbers either.

That said, the hard part about being on the sidelines is knowing when to buy. All I know right now is that it is not Monday.
Not calling you out, just selecting your post because it had a wide range of issues we are all wondering about.

It's interesting going back 5 months and now seeing what has happened.

Shiller P/E is now at 33.47 and climbing.
S&P 500 was at 2588.26 now sitting at 2912.72
Trade War is ongoing with China, talks with Canada and Mexico continue

Will this mean an even larger drop when the inevitable happens?