Time to short the Dow?

Ecl!pse

Well-Known Member
#44
Different market now, less competition. They are now “too big to fail”
I’m still not sure if I agree. But I know I won’t bet against the Oracle.
In a market that could be described as “frothy” (to say the least), the airlines represent a sector that is still very cheap on a relative basis and have a lot of value investment potential. Between the cheap industry valuation and the cash that carriers like DAL and LUV are throwing off, it’s easy to see what piqued Buffet’s interest. If you truly believe that the fundamentals of the business are fixed, then the sector will certainly re-rate in the future and investors will be rewarded many times over. It would be Benjamin Graham at its finest.

Personally, the jury is still out on whether or not we’ve fundamentally fixed the business. The next downturn will be telling, that’s for sure. IMHO getting through that unscathed, as an industry, will be the catalyst for the re-rating.
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Socialist Pig Member
#45
In a market that could be described as “frothy” (to say the least), the airlines represent a sector that is still very cheap on a relative basis and have a lot of value investment potential. Between the cheap industry valuation and the cash that carriers like DAL and LUV are throwing off, it’s easy to see what piqued Buffet’s interest. If you truly believe that the fundamentals of the business are fixed, then the sector will certainly re-rate in the future and investors will be rewarded many times over. It would be Benjamin Graham at its finest.

Personally, the jury is still out on whether or not we’ve fundamentally fixed the business. The next downturn will be telling, that’s for sure. IMHO getting through that unscathed, as an industry, will be the catalyst for the re-rating.
I just know airline management too well. They’ve still got a hankering for gutting more work rules and industry norms at the next opportunity. As long as Southwest is out there with their horrible work rules, legacy managements will be salivating at bringing the rest of the industry down to their level. I fully expect another trip through bankruptcy and 1113(c) next downturn.
 

Lawman

Well-Known Member
#47
Anyone still optimistic?
Markets best day since 2008. I think this is a great example of volatility we haven't seen in a long time.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...s-big-rebound-trade-war-fears-ease/458009002/
I think there is a good half bit of truth to the people saying we need to re-baseline what we describe as a wild day is.

500 points on the DOW when you’re running in the 22-25k range isn’t nearly as terrifying or dramatic as the same movement in the 16-18 range. The boat is still rocking to both sides with volatility vs a steady lean one way, but it’s not nearly as big a movement as the adjectives being used to describe it in financial news.


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Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
#48
molation
I think there is a good half bit of truth to the people saying we need to re-baseline what we describe as a wild day is.

500 points on the DOW when you’re running in the 22-25k range isn’t nearly as terrifying or dramatic as the same movement in the 16-18 range. The boat is still rocking to both sides with volatility vs a steady lean one way, but it’s not nearly as big a movement as the adjectives being used to describe it in financial news.


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Exactly there have been larger percentage swings.

I was watching a Mad Men episode last night and one of their news clips was from June 11, 1963, with Thích Quảng Đức self-immolation. The NYSE rose a whole 2 points for moderate gains. I had to laugh at 2 points being a moderate gain.

Today's closing is the 3rd largest in points for the Dow and 17th for percentage gain which is the most important metric.
 

Lawman

Well-Known Member
#49
molation
Exactly there have been larger percentage swings.

I was watching a Mad Men episode last night and one of their news clips was from June 11, 1963, with Thích Quảng Đức self-immolation. The NYSE rose a whole 2 points for moderate gains. I had to laugh at 2 points being a moderate gain.

Today's closing is the 3rd largest in points for the Dow and 17th for percentage gain which is the most important metric.
March 30, 1999 (not gonna lie had to google the exact date)

“OMG.... 10000 on the DOW!”

Now we are talking about daily/hourly changes of more than 1/20th that incredible number.
 

wheelsup

Well-Known Member
#50
March 30, 1999 (not gonna lie had to google the exact date)

“OMG.... 10000 on the DOW!”

Now we are talking about daily/hourly changes of more than 1/20th that incredible number.
The S&P 500 had zero gain for over a decade...now people are worried about a sideways market for a couple days or weeks.
 
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