1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Time to short the Dow?

Discussion in 'Investment and Retirement Planning' started by av8tr1, Nov 30, 2017.

  1. ATN_Pilot

    ATN_Pilot Socialist Pig Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2005
    Messages:
    22,355
    Likes Received:
    13,964
    Certainly, but you also have to be rational about when you put your money into different investments. Just buying at any price because “it always goes up eventually” isn’t rational.
     
  2. ppragman

    ppragman Direct BOOKE

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2007
    Messages:
    9,888
    Likes Received:
    3,855
    Oh for sure on the probability argument.

    It just annoys me when people say, "there's nowhere to go but up in the long run" when that's impossible to know. It's also a bit disingenuous to say, "buy buy buy!!!" when we haven't had a major market correction in nigh on a decade. Yes, in the long run, dumping money into the market right now is probably a good investment, but that presupposes you'll be able to keep that money in the market and you won't have to yank it out to keep your house if you lose your job during a major market correction a year in,

    I'm inclined to say, "it'll go up until it doesn't any more." It doesn't even have to be a crazy catastrophic political thing to shake up the Dow crazily."

    The Dow is made of "components" - a major shakeup to several of them could damage the DJIA to make it a poor indicator of market performance.
     
  3. Lawman

    Lawman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2014
    Messages:
    3,437
    Likes Received:
    3,681
    I think it has to do with the audience of people you know.

    I’ve gotta spend a lot of time beating on 19-21 year olds about making good financial decisions. There are a number of people who think that the possibility of losing a couple grand of the full say 10 for several years at a time because of a correction is reason to not invest a dime. It’s a product of the pay check to pay check, ownership of possessions = wealth mentality. Same reason Americans don’t save (or save nearly enough) for retirement. We see more in the immediate and we spend that way too.

    People playing the day trader game ought to be tracking the market to the micro trends. People I’m dealing with making the decision to actually put away money vs spend the lot right now, need the emphasis that up or down, you should be putting money into a market because long term it’s a hell of a lot smarter than paying cash for “stuff” or buying scratchers.
     
    ATN_Pilot and ppragman like this.
  4. av8tr1

    av8tr1 "Never tell me the odds!"

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2014
    Messages:
    2,408
    Likes Received:
    1,817
    Being the redneck I am.......I've put my money where it makes the most sense to me.

    [​IMG]

    You can't win if you don't play. I've lost so much the next one has to be a winner!
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2017
    Stone Cold and alaskadrifter like this.
  5. Cessnaflyer

    Cessnaflyer Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2006
    Messages:
    8,384
    Likes Received:
    2,583
    And you missed out on a ton of profits!
    Capture2.JPG


    Not perfect but a better measurement would be the price per sq/ft. Right now we are getting to be pretty hot in my state.
    Capture.JPG
     
  6. ATN_Pilot

    ATN_Pilot Socialist Pig Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2005
    Messages:
    22,355
    Likes Received:
    13,964
    Trust me, I’m doing okay. :)

    More importantly, I’ll miss the crash. It’s coming.
     
    Stone Cold likes this.
  7. av8tr1

    av8tr1 "Never tell me the odds!"

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2014
    Messages:
    2,408
    Likes Received:
    1,817
    I think so too. There are a number of factors the country is facing that could lead to significant market correction.
     
    ppragman and ATN_Pilot like this.

Share This Page