Time to short the Dow?

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Socialist Pig Member
Certainly, but you also have to be rational about when you put your money into different investments. Just buying at any price because “it always goes up eventually” isn’t rational.
 

ppragman

FLIPY FLAPS!
The scenario cases where investing in the Market don’t in a long term run continue to mean gains are the kind of scenarios where whether it’s long or short term nobody is gonna care about a market. That’s because we will all be to busy scrounging for food and water wishing for the lights to come back on.

I’ve got a crazy cousin that’s whole sold to that kind of scenario. He’s spending his money that could be otherwise invested and build wealth over time into a fallout shelter and defensible property with long term fuel and storage.... Me I’m maxing out my TSP and putting all my flight pay in a 401k and our mortgage. Guess we will see who gets to be right in the long run.

I agree with you there are infinite scenarios but let’s not pretend there are not severe differences in probability.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oh for sure on the probability argument.

It just annoys me when people say, "there's nowhere to go but up in the long run" when that's impossible to know. It's also a bit disingenuous to say, "buy buy buy!!!" when we haven't had a major market correction in nigh on a decade. Yes, in the long run, dumping money into the market right now is probably a good investment, but that presupposes you'll be able to keep that money in the market and you won't have to yank it out to keep your house if you lose your job during a major market correction a year in,

I'm inclined to say, "it'll go up until it doesn't any more." It doesn't even have to be a crazy catastrophic political thing to shake up the Dow crazily."

The Dow is made of "components" - a major shakeup to several of them could damage the DJIA to make it a poor indicator of market performance.
 

Lawman

Well-Known Member
I think it has to do with the audience of people you know.

I’ve gotta spend a lot of time beating on 19-21 year olds about making good financial decisions. There are a number of people who think that the possibility of losing a couple grand of the full say 10 for several years at a time because of a correction is reason to not invest a dime. It’s a product of the pay check to pay check, ownership of possessions = wealth mentality. Same reason Americans don’t save (or save nearly enough) for retirement. We see more in the immediate and we spend that way too.

People playing the day trader game ought to be tracking the market to the micro trends. People I’m dealing with making the decision to actually put away money vs spend the lot right now, need the emphasis that up or down, you should be putting money into a market because long term it’s a hell of a lot smarter than paying cash for “stuff” or buying scratchers.
 

Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I’m not a shorting man. But if I was, I’d be shorting now. Instead, I’m just mostly in cash.
And you missed out on a ton of profits!
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The average sale price of a house in Q4 2000 was $212,100. The average price today is $375,700. The only way is up!
Not perfect but a better measurement would be the price per sq/ft. Right now we are getting to be pretty hot in my state.
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Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Two days now.
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression. The market has a long ways to go down or earnings has a long ways to go up to get back into a better PE ratio. Also, watch out for the flattening of the yield curve to show times of recession. I am happy that it is going down because my weekly buys are going to net me more shares. If you are still at the beginning of your savings years these down times should be met with happiness because you are able to buy more shares.
 

av8tr1

"Never tell me the odds!"
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression. The market has a long ways to go down or earnings has a long ways to go up to get back into a better PE ratio. Also, watch out for the flattening of the yield curve to show times of recession. I am happy that it is going down because my weekly buys are going to net me more shares. If you are still at the beginning of your savings years these down times should be met with happiness because you are able to buy more shares.
Ironic that you point out two of the biggest declines of the stock market as having similar characteristics of the current market.
 

Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Ironic that you point out two of the biggest declines of the stock market as having similar characteristics of the current market.
Not ironic at all.

I am saying an investor that holds long, two days in many decades to come means very little. The market is going to come down, whether that be today or a year from now, no one knows.
 

drunkenbeagle

Gang Member
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression.
I've been keeping my mouth shut (mostly), but I'm also a big fan of the Shiller P/E. Stocks are up 30% since the election. That means the market is pricing for earnings to justify that in the future. I still don't buy that happening. I've been 95% in cash for the last 6 weeks. We tested the low on the last correction and went below it today - enough for the quants to say Bye, Felica. I think the smart money used the last month as a chance to sell.

My crystal ball shows risk from trade wars and tariffs, rising interest rates, sketchy political leadership, and expensive everything relative to historical prices. I don't see much to justify great earnings numbers either.

That said, the hard part about being on the sidelines is knowing when to buy. All I know right now is that it is not Monday.
 

Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I've been keeping my mouth shut (mostly), but I'm also a big fan of the Shiller P/E. Stocks are up 30% since the election. That means the market is pricing for earnings to justify that in the future. I still don't buy that happening. I've been 95% in cash for the last 6 weeks. We tested the low on the last correction and went below it today - enough for the quants to say Bye, Felica. I think the smart money used the last month as a chance to sell.

My crystal ball shows risk from trade wars and tariffs, rising interest rates, sketchy political leadership, and expensive everything relative to historical prices. I don't see much to justify great earnings numbers either.

That said, the hard part about being on the sidelines is knowing when to buy. All I know right now is that it is not Monday.
For sure we are at the end of this bull run so I'm not putting much extra into my taxable but I sure am limiting out my 401k and Roth. Those tax advantage accounts are too good to pass up.
 

NickH

Dank Meme
Yesterday marked a tipping point for me. I'm now down YTD. That said, I have one stock that's up about 35%, and the only thing I've sold so far was at a profit. (AAL, funnily enough). It's a time to buy.
 
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