Time to short the Dow?

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
#6
All bull markets come to an end. Could be 1 year, could be 10. Your guess is as good as the guys on Wall Street.
 

milleR

Well-Known Member
#9
The average sale price of a house in Q4 2000 was $212,100. The average price today is $375,700. The only way is up!
The average price of a gallon of gas in 2000 was $1.51. The average price today is $2.49. The only way is up!
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Socialist Pig Member
#11
The average sale price of a house in Q4 2000 was $212,100. The average price today is $375,700. The only way is up!
That’s a highly misleading statistic. The average price of a sale is a lot different than the average price of a given property. If I build ten houses today and sell them for $100k each, and then build ten houses next week and sell them for $200k, then the average sale price week to week has doubled! But wait! The houses sold the second week were twice as big with lots of upgrades. So has the value of the original houses gone up? Nope.

What’s going on in housing right now is that upper middle class and upper class buyers are driving up the price of homes in their price range, but less expensive homes for the middle and lower classes are frequently still not even back up to their 2007 levels. That skews a statistic like “average price of home sold,” because the cheaper houses just aren’t selling in the same numbers the more expensive ones are. Lower class buyers are sticking with renting.
 

JEP

Malko In Charge
Staff member
#18
That’s a highly misleading statistic. The average price of a sale is a lot different than the average price of a given property. If I build ten houses today and sell them for $100k each, and then build ten houses next week and sell them for $200k, then the average sale price week to week has doubled! But wait! The houses sold the second week were twice as big with lots of upgrades. So has the value of the original houses gone up? Nope.

What’s going on in housing right now is that upper middle class and upper class buyers are driving up the price of homes in their price range, but less expensive homes for the middle and lower classes are frequently still not even back up to their 2007 levels. That skews a statistic like “average price of home sold,” because the cheaper houses just aren’t selling in the same numbers the more expensive ones are. Lower class buyers are sticking with renting.
15 years into our mortgage and we have turned the corner.....no refi’s or anything and were no longer upside down like we were for awhile due to nothing other than the ‘market’....the first 7-10 years it would pretty much a wash for the rent/buy question......

No way i would move now.. We’re on the plus side.....
 

ppragman

Direct Yeska
#19
Er... No...

What goes up will, over time, always go up.
Unknown if this is true or not.

This is a logical fallacy, and prior performance is no guarantee of future returns.

The Dow could collapse, we could all loose our money then Canadian Communists could annex NYC and abolish the DJIA.


What you really mean is what you said with the additional caveat, "provided nothing major happens that undermines the reasons the Dow always goes up."
 

Lawman

Well-Known Member
#20
Unknown if this is true or not.

This is a logical fallacy, and prior performance is no guarantee of future returns.

The Dow could collapse, we could all loose our money then Canadian Communists could annex NYC and abolish the DJIA.


What you really mean is what you said with the additional caveat, "provided nothing major happens that undermines the reasons the Dow always goes up."
The scenario cases where investing in the Market don’t in a long term run continue to mean gains are the kind of scenarios where whether it’s long or short term nobody is gonna care about a market. That’s because we will all be to busy scrounging for food and water wishing for the lights to come back on.

I’ve got a crazy cousin that’s whole sold to that kind of scenario. He’s spending his money that could be otherwise invested and build wealth over time into a fallout shelter and defensible property with long term fuel and storage.... Me I’m maxing out my TSP and putting all my flight pay in a 401k and our mortgage. Guess we will see who gets to be right in the long run.

I agree with you there are infinite scenarios but let’s not pretend there are not severe differences in probability.





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