Seattle Times Article on Horizon / Pilot Shortage

z987k

Well-Known Member
#22
I've been hearing about colleges now starting to fill their flight courses up as this pilot shortage word has gotten around. I wish the best for those people that are now getting 100k in debt because some college recruiter told them they would be able to sit in the left seat of a 777 within ten years, making more money than they know what to do with. Hopefully they have done their homework and realize that the first 4-5 years they may make <50k while paying off 1k a month in student loan debt.
10 years... in the aviation industry. lol.
That bill of goods is going to make pilots more scarce. When the music stops next time and all the new people are sitting there with 150k in debt, stuck in the right seat of an RJ for an extra 5-6 years, broke, unable to pay it back. That'll get people super motivated to learn for the next short upswing.
 

Yakob

Grand Prognosticator Nominee
#23
The word I'm hearing from my lobbyist is that they're pushing to incorporate simulator training into the minimum requirements.
Sounds like your lobbyist must also be working for simulator training providers. Still, it's a good strategy; requiring sim time that is probably more relevant to airline operations that instructing, aerial survey, etc. will make it easier to sell laxer standards to the public; while getting simulator training providers on the list of clients in addition to airport authorities that think they are entitled to air service and companies that think they're entitled to cheap labor.

10 years... in the aviation industry. lol.
That bill of goods is going to make pilots more scarce. When the music stops next time and all the new people are sitting there with 150k in debt, stuck in the right seat of an RJ for an extra 5-6 years, broke, unable to pay it back. That'll get people super motivated to learn for the next short upswing.
I think it will be enough to tide the regionals over until the next recession, which we are just about due for, reduces their staffing needs. Actually, in this thread https://forums.jetcareers.com/threa...-about-perceived-pilot-shortage.252529/page-3 it was mentioned that ERAU and the UND aviation department are enjoying record enrollment. I suspect the pay increases at the regionals over the last few years are drawing people into the industry. And that may slow down once the ATP rule is repealed and pilot compensation plummets; but those who have already sunk quite a bit of time and money into flight training will still continue.

Also, I believe that part of this increase in flight training enrollment might be caused by declining Return on Investment for training to enter other industries. Much has been made about how college graduates have been struggling to find decent employment ever since the last recession. So aviation looks more attractive by comparison. And while flight costs have risen dramatically over the years, so have college tuition costs, so these people will have to spend and borrow extensively if they enter any field that requires college education or extensive vocational training (i.e. flight training for certificates and ratings).
 
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tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
#24
I'd be interested to see a number of how many are graduating from these 4 year programs. From my experience it was about 10% of the freshman aviation students actually graduated. Granted I didn't go to a household name like ERAU/UND....but I've heard the same. Lots of kids drop out from too much workload, costs, uninterested, etc and then how many of those graduates are even interested in the 121 world?

You should know though, don't bag all guys who went that route for training. I constantly see posts about how foolish and stupid "this millennial generation" is for falling into these traps. I graduated with around $80k student debt (including my flight training) all of it but $10k was under government loans. Government loans were exceptionally lower interest rates and amazing pay back plans when you make terrible money as an instructor. After scholarships and grants I got a total of $70,000 free money. (I went to a private school, more cost for tuition but more financial aid was given out). So looking back I got a degree and training at the cost of $20,000 more than if I would have went to most flight schools part 61.

That to me was my best decision and I'd do it all over again. Some will disagree and your milage may vary. I had to go out of state regardless, so a private tuition was lower than most of the state schools I got into.
 

JDean3204

Well-Known Member
#25
I'd be interested to see a number of how many are graduating from these 4 year programs. From my experience it was about 10% of the freshman aviation students actually graduated. Granted I didn't go to a household name like ERAU/UND....but I've heard the same. Lots of kids drop out from too much workload, costs, uninterested, etc and then how many of those graduates are even interested in the 121 world?

You should know though, don't bag all guys who went that route for training. I constantly see posts about how foolish and stupid "this millennial generation" is for falling into these traps. I graduated with around $80k student debt (including my flight training) all of it but $10k was under government loans. Government loans were exceptionally lower interest rates and amazing pay back plans when you make terrible money as an instructor. After scholarships and grants I got a total of $70,000 free money. (I went to a private school, more cost for tuition but more financial aid was given out). So looking back I got a degree and training at the cost of $20,000 more than if I would have went to most flight schools part 61.

That to me was my best decision and I'd do it all over again. Some will disagree and your milage may vary. I had to go out of state regardless, so a private tuition was lower than most of the state schools I got into.
I'm hoping you're allowed to defer the hefty payments on that 80k of debt while making maybe 2500 a month take home..

A good friend of mine has a payment of 850 a month. He cannot defer it since its Wells Fargo and some other bank that doesn't care what his current income status is. He can't even afford to move out of his parents while he is in the right seat of an RJ. I really feel for the guys that have that burden..
 

TallFlyer

Well-Known Member
#26
With regard to the ATP rule, keep in mind the current Senate Minority Leader, who has latched on to the Colgan families like a tick on a dog, has said that any change to the rule that makes it to the floor of the Senate is DOA by any parliamentary means necessary.


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#27
The word I'm hearing from my lobbyist is that they're pushing to incorporate simulator training into the minimum requirements.
Oh. If that's the biggest change, then it's not much of a change. I went to a very sim-heavy school and I think I have about 100 hours in simulators from that?

Everyone is done training by 300-400 hours anyway. The rest of the time building is on them, and ain't nobody going to pay you to put yourself in a Frasca...
 

Seggy

Well-Known Member
#28
The 1,500 hour rule will be dead in less than a year.
No it won't.

Airport lobbiests have joined the airlines in an effort to dismantle it, and the airline unions have done a poor job of convincing anyone their support has to do with anything other than creating scarcity to drive up wages.
I am sure you are being told that lie but I would tell your lobbyist to look who initially sponsored the rule in the House and in the Senate.

It isn't going to change.
 
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#29
Can't agree with you more. Problem is, I am not sure they will do what it takes to make QX succeed. The internal emails we are getting about them trying to right the ship are great and all, but violating the contract on the 175 was a big middle finger to QX and speaks in spades of AAGs level of commitment to QX. There are a bunch of internal shake ups supposedly, but that doesn't fix the real problems. They need to pay up, pay the pilot group, offer a legit contract, AND they need to finally offer flow to mainline. I also have a feeling that lots of things are hinging on scope with the JCBA. Not that it will change flying a whole lot necessarily but the way it gets worded will depend on whether those shiny new Skywest routes and bases stick around or not.
Nope. For those in the know, the ALPA scope proposal is absolutely bare bottom. Even if in effect today, the current regional situation with AS would be perfectly allowed.
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
#30
I'm hoping you're allowed to defer the hefty payments on that 80k of debt while making maybe 2500 a month take home..

A good friend of mine has a payment of 850 a month. He cannot defer it since its Wells Fargo and some other bank that doesn't care what his current income status is. He can't even afford to move out of his parents while he is in the right seat of an RJ. I really feel for the guys that have that burden..
I'm year 1 right seat RJ and still take home $3000-3300/month. Granted I work more than most guys. If I worked bare minimums and only credited 76 hours I'd be around that 2500/month.

Also, with government loans the payment options are terrific. I'm on income based repayment so I just upload my taxes from the previous year and they figure out a livable payment. It's a longer repayment plan but I don't even notice it very much. Of course after my taxes this year I'm expecting that payment to go up again. Like I said, wouldn't have done it differently. I can't really comment on other people's financial situations with wife/kids/etc, nor would that be fair. YMMV.

Edit: I have to look tonight but I don't think I'll qualify for IBR after my income this year. It helped when I made $30k as an instructor though.
 
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Richman

Well-Known Member
#31
The commuters/regionals enjoyed a free ride for decades because the civilian track provided an pilots with 1,500 hours at zero cost to them in numbers that kept their labor costs ridiculously low.

That pipeline was made possible by low cost general aviation in the US, and tons of people who participated in that industry at every level. That low cost pipeline was made possible by inexpensive aircraft, reasonable operating costs, reasonable manufacturers and the robustness of the ancillary industries who supported the above.

GA had been sick in this country for a long time. The causes of that is a subject of another thread, but the reasons are ultimately irrelevant for this discussion. But the fact remains that once the commuters moved past their local origins and beyond the BE-99s, 402s and Navajos by a few generations, they lost touch as to how their business model actually works with regards to pilot supply.

Now we're to the point where airframes are starting to get used up, and the operating costs have skyrocketed and providers of services are starting to vanish.

Was the GA industry way oversupplied? Maybe, but the commuters based their business model on that model and now it's gone.

I don't want to be a Debby Downer and say it's never coming back, but the odds are against it.
 
#32
I'm hoping you're allowed to defer the hefty payments on that 80k of debt while making maybe 2500 a month take home..

A good friend of mine has a payment of 850 a month. He cannot defer it since its Wells Fargo and some other bank that doesn't care what his current income status is. He can't even afford to move out of his parents while he is in the right seat of an RJ. I really feel for the guys that have that burden..
Tell your friend, that Wells Fargo now has a new deferment option for student loans!
 

Inverted

#inspirationing
#33
Nope. For those in the know, the ALPA scope proposal is absolutely bare bottom. Even if in effect today, the current regional situation with AS would be perfectly allowed.
I know it is bare bottom, but getting that will pave the way for 2020. I need to go back and reread the proposed scope language but it won't effect Skywest getting the flying over QX at all?
 

Seggy

Well-Known Member
#35
The 1,500 hour rule will be dead in less than a year. Airport lobbiests have joined the airlines in an effort to dismantle it, and the airline unions have done a poor job of convincing anyone their support has to do with anything other than creating scarcity to drive up wages.
Do the airports still employ those lobbyists that said the rule will be dead in less than a year?

http://buffalonews.com/2018/01/12/c...-after-meeting-with-transportation-secretary/
 

Seggy

Well-Known Member
#38
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Seggy

Well-Known Member
#39
@Murdoughnut you missed my question above.

Our local ALPA Legislative Committee put this out. What does the airport lobbyists think?

Thune Amendment Dead

As we've been reporting for months, ALPA has waged an all-out assault on an Amendment to the Senate FAA bill that would lower First Officer Minimum Qualifications - something ALPA fought hard for after the Colgan accident in Buffalo, NY. The Amendment, offered by Senator Thune of South Dakota was offered in part due to intense lobbying by the Regional Airline Association and certain lower tier regionals who pulled service from his state citing the fictitious pilot shortage. I'm pleased to report that the Senator has backed off his Amendment, instead referring any changes to the FAA. In turn, ALPA (and others) have lobbied DOT Secretary Elaine Chao not to change the rule, and last week she told New York Congressman Chris Collins that she would not change it
 
#40
Especially since my Mother told me one day when I was a child that if I wanted to be a pilot, I would have to get really high grades in school. If my grades were not good enough, then I'd have to be a garbage man... Little did she know! However, I'm sure garbage truck drivers don't have a sliver of the potential earnings that a pilot can expect throughout a career.
^ There's the long standing bait... ^

Wait for the switch. It's coming.

The good news is pilots will have lots of accountants, lawyers, engineers, and other bourgeoisie cum proletariat company with whom to commiserate as they adapt to their new serf status. Those of us who know how to build something or grow something might even end up vassals, so we got that going for us... which is nice.
 
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