Retirement Table through 2032

Autothrust Blue

"I'll take your case."
Retirement numbers are great but guys talk about 2032, that's literally 14 yrs down the road. 14 yrs ago was 2004, and we all know how different 2004 looked compared to 2018. There are SO many things that can change between now and then. Sure, pilots have to retire, but IMO I wouldn't make a decision on AA or DL or UA simply because one retires "more" pilots than the others.
OH MY GOD YOU'VE GOT TO GET YOURS TODAY OH F---!

:)
 

SFLAX

Well-Known Member
Thank you. This needed to be said.

I have a feeling guys that are mentally going off on the retirement numbers have: 1. never been in a recession, 2. never lost a job, 3. never been furloughed, 4. never been through a merger, or 5. never had their airline shut down.


Retirement numbers are great but guys talk about 2032, that's literally 14 yrs down the road. 14 yrs ago was 2004, and we all know how different 2004 looked compared to 2018. There are SO many things that can change between now and then. Sure, pilots have to retire, but IMO I wouldn't make a decision on AA or DL or UA simply because one retires "more" pilots than the others.
Been through all those and more, and the fact that even if we stop growing and hiring I feel very confident that I can keep my employment needs where I am for a longer time. All you can count on is yesterday.
 

Soku39

Well-Known Member
@Yakob this seems like a great time for you to insert your grim future outlook with 80% of the population living in poverty...
Yes let's pretend like robots wont completely change the landscape of work and careers in the developed world, even though people are literally running for president based on his future.https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/technology/his-2020-campaign-message-the-robots-are-coming.html.

I wonder how its working out for toys'r'us employees as well as every facett of brick and mortar retail.
 

Richman

Well-Known Member

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Socialist Pig Member
Yes let's pretend like robots wont completely change the landscape of work and careers in the developed world, even though people are literally running for president based on his future.https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/technology/his-2020-campaign-message-the-robots-are-coming.html.

I wonder how its working out for toys'r'us employees as well as every facett of brick and mortar retail.
“Changing the landscape of work and careers” is a lot different than “oh s—-, there’s going to be 80% unemployment!”
 

jtrain609

I'm a carnal, organic anagram.
Yes let's pretend like robots wont completely change the landscape of work and careers in the developed world, even though people are literally running for president based on his future.https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/10/technology/his-2020-campaign-message-the-robots-are-coming.html.

I wonder how its working out for toys'r'us employees as well as every facett of brick and mortar retail.
I worked at toys r us at one point in my life, and I don't care what anyone says, that place went under because of corporate mismanagement. It was easily the worst managed company I've ever worked for, and I've pretty much only worked for airlines since I had that job, including a TSH property.
 

Soku39

Well-Known Member
“Changing the landscape of work and careers” is a lot different than “oh s—-, there’s going to be 80% unemployment!”
Changing the landacape of work is the very polite way of saying "oh s - - - there's going to be 80% unemployment"
 
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jtrain609

I'm a carnal, organic anagram.
Changing the landacape of work is the very polite way of sayinf "oh s - - - there's going to be 80% unemployment"
So, here's the problem.

People have cried wolf about this one so many times it's hard to listen anymore. Hell this likely predates when someone hooked a plow up to an animal to till a field. Oxen are coming for your jobs! Then the tractor, that one displaced a huge number of workers. How about how airplanes have ruined the careers of train engineers?

The list is almost endless for the number of times this has happened, but it ends up in The Expanse and people start losing their minds.

People find new jobs. They gain new skills. By creating a little destruction, we are in fact encouraging life. Cheers.

 

Soku39

Well-Known Member
Nah. Not even close. Some jobs will disappear, others will appear out of nowhere. Laws will be passed and programs created to ease the burden. Etc.
So, here's the problem.

People have cried wolf about this one so many times it's hard to listen anymore. Hell this likely predates when someone hooked a plow up to an animal to till a field. Oxen are coming for your jobs! Then the tractor, that one displaced a huge number of workers. How about how airplanes have ruined the careers of train engineers?

The list is almost endless for the number of times this has happened, but it ends up in The Expanse and people start losing their minds.

People find new jobs. They gain new skills. By creating a little destruction, we are in fact encouraging life. Cheers.

Gentleman I sincerely hope you are both correct for the most selfish reasons... I just don't see it though.
 

zVo

Well-Known Member
When do you all think the retirement numbers (pending no cataclysmic economic downturn) will start to significantly bring down competitive hiring minimums, if at all?
 

Derg

Cap, Roci
Staff member
Lemme drop a little flame retarded on making career plans based on retirement tables:

1. Industry consolidation isn’t done.
2. 9/11
3. Age 65 (may go to 67 or 70 if we’re not careful)
4. Insolvency
5. Force Majeur
6. Boeing makes a 737 Maxiest of the Max

Neat to look at but I was going to be a five year 727 captain, L1011 captain at 10 years, retiring in 2023 with a fully funded pension at a little over 50 years old.

Lets not fool ourselves into believing that 2019 is any different than 1998 because it all can happen again. And then again.
 

MikeOH58

Well-Known Member
I’ve always been a corporate guy, and here I shall remain. At 35 I have had an extremely fortunate career - Small part 91 flight department manager, true world wide operations as a demo pilot for one of the major business jet OEM’s and now CAM on an amazing account at one of the top management companies.

I hardly know any corporate pilots staying on the 91 side of the industry - the young guys are starting their careers in CJ’s and Hawkers and likely will be moving to 121 in the coming years, and when I go to industry events, 9/10 of my colleagues in management are at least 15 years older than me. That’s not a a sometimes thing, that is the rule in my experience.

As awesome as the times seem to be for the airline guys, I encourage people to really consider what an amazing opportunity is also at hand within business aviation. The departments you want to work for have gotten the memo, and pay is becoming very respectable. In my personal network I don’t know anyone flying a large cabin business jet making less than mid 200’s, and super mids like Challengers and Falcons are easily approaching if not exceeding the 200 mark.

The times are great for everyone right now, but it won’t last forever. Position yourself in a place that you will be happy to spend the next ten years because this could end overnight. Short of being in a true dream job, I really think people are going to look back on this time period in the future and really question why you didn’t have upward career progression, because if you aren’t, you're just being lazy or not in touch with our industry.

Either way, happy jobs to all, and for the young dudes, really consider the potential for the other side of the industry. If and when it all falls, I’m putting my money on being in a global or other large cabin business jet at a stable department rather than furloughed mainline 320 or 737 FO.
 
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