Regional airlines new TAs rumor mill

CUTigerPilot

RJ Scum
I don’t understand why we’re keeping any 200’s. Take the 15 new 900’s and the rest of Envoy’s 700’s (they fit in the World spots, at least B-H).
 

Maurus

The Great Gazoo
That would require a doubling of the buses in DCA. They are already jam packed in there as it is.
 

BigZ

Well-Known Member
Idle mind due to not being called for a few days in the row, was thinking crazy thoughts before hitting the sack.

Of the recent -
ExpressJet got saved from a near future oblivion.
GoJet got saved from getting it's United flying chopped (albeit at what price - it's not looking good for their FAs and I very much hope they won't budge on the pilot pay - it's a damn CRJ700 at the end of the day, 50 seats or not).
But here's a kicker - the deal is for 50 airframes. Immediate 25 are the GoJet UX birds, Delta owns the other 22, so it is unlikely that UAL will be negotiating buying those. It is also unlikely that GoJet will continue flying those birds, crews for additional 25 airplanes don't materialize out of the thin air. So if the 22 Delta birds go, staffing for extra 25 UAL planes is easy to figure out.
The actual planes - I don't think anyone's buying new 550s from the factory at this point, so some other UX carrier will have to lose theirs. SkyWest flies them to Aspen, so I'd imagine those are safe. That pretty much leaves Mesa.
Speaking of SkyWest - do they still have both 65 and 70 seat 700s for AA? I'd imagine the 70 seat birds, if still around, will get converted to 65 seats some time soon to open up the space for more 76 seat 175s/900s. If wiki is any good for that, there's 17 of those. So, potentially, 17 more potential 175s or 900s for PSA (although PSA is going to be busy growing with the current incoming 900s and accelerated 700s transfer?)
Envoy is growing the 175s, supposed to almost double them in the next 18 months. Yet, as of now, a sizeable share of newhires (as in vast majority) get to fill up the 145 reserve ranks. The anticipated 175 hiring wave hasn't happened yet, and at MQ FOs are eternally seat locked in their equipment.

So here's the crazy thinking (kinda fueled by the fact that CPZ APC page went from jolly bs to nordo after their company call) - Compass AA planes coming to Envoy at the end of the contract has been talked about from, probably, the first day of that contract. Envoy management talks about it as more or less a work in progress. What if the grand plan is to bring them back with the pilots? I.e. merge Compass into Envoy. Simplifies reopening the LAX base (that's been rumored since the day it closed, but now, supposedly, the newhires are being told it's coming in class), enough crews currently doing the Delta flying to offset the immidiate need for manning the incoming additional aircraft.

Damn this typing stuff gets old. But you guys get the idea.

PS Don't want a merger, just throwing ideas around. Next two years should bring a lot of changes into the regional industry.
PPS I've been wrong before, but I've also been right on occasion, which is why this spitballing is kinda fun.
 

chrisreedrules

Master Blaster
Idle mind due to not being called for a few days in the row, was thinking crazy thoughts before hitting the sack.

Of the recent -
ExpressJet got saved from a near future oblivion.
GoJet got saved from getting it's United flying chopped (albeit at what price - it's not looking good for their FAs and I very much hope they won't budge on the pilot pay - it's a damn CRJ700 at the end of the day, 50 seats or not).
But here's a kicker - the deal is for 50 airframes. Immediate 25 are the GoJet UX birds, Delta owns the other 22, so it is unlikely that UAL will be negotiating buying those. It is also unlikely that GoJet will continue flying those birds, crews for additional 25 airplanes don't materialize out of the thin air. So if the 22 Delta birds go, staffing for extra 25 UAL planes is easy to figure out.
The actual planes - I don't think anyone's buying new 550s from the factory at this point, so some other UX carrier will have to lose theirs. SkyWest flies them to Aspen, so I'd imagine those are safe. That pretty much leaves Mesa.
Speaking of SkyWest - do they still have both 65 and 70 seat 700s for AA? I'd imagine the 70 seat birds, if still around, will get converted to 65 seats some time soon to open up the space for more 76 seat 175s/900s. If wiki is any good for that, there's 17 of those. So, potentially, 17 more potential 175s or 900s for PSA (although PSA is going to be busy growing with the current incoming 900s and accelerated 700s transfer?)
Envoy is growing the 175s, supposed to almost double them in the next 18 months. Yet, as of now, a sizeable share of newhires (as in vast majority) get to fill up the 145 reserve ranks. The anticipated 175 hiring wave hasn't happened yet, and at MQ FOs are eternally seat locked in their equipment.

So here's the crazy thinking (kinda fueled by the fact that CPZ APC page went from jolly bs to nordo after their company call) - Compass AA planes coming to Envoy at the end of the contract has been talked about from, probably, the first day of that contract. Envoy management talks about it as more or less a work in progress. What if the grand plan is to bring them back with the pilots? I.e. merge Compass into Envoy. Simplifies reopening the LAX base (that's been rumored since the day it closed, but now, supposedly, the newhires are being told it's coming in class), enough crews currently doing the Delta flying to offset the immidiate need for manning the incoming additional aircraft.

Damn this typing stuff gets old. But you guys get the idea.

PS Don't want a merger, just throwing ideas around. Next two years should bring a lot of changes into the regional industry.
PPS I've been wrong before, but I've also been right on occasion, which is why this spitballing is kinda fun.
Maybe? But I think from a dollars and cent (sense) perspective Compass’ AA flying isn’t too big to wind down and transfer. And it forces pilots to reapply and work for less at the bottom of the seniority list of another carrier. The whipsaw is alive and well, it’ll likely just be taking on a different form.

AA announces the transfer of the Eagle 175s from Compass to Envoy and simulataneously announce the opening of LAX for Envoy. Scroll down in your newsfeed and there is Envoy offering direct-entry CA on the 175 with a signing bonus and flow to AA.
 

BigZ

Well-Known Member
Maybe? But I think from a dollars and cent (sense) perspective Compass’ AA flying isn’t too big to wind down and transfer. And it forces pilots to reapply and work for less at the bottom of the seniority list of another carrier. The whipsaw is alive and well, it’ll likely just be taking on a different form.

AA announces the transfer of the Eagle 175s from Compass to Envoy and simulataneously announce the opening of LAX for Envoy. Scroll down in your newsfeed and there is Envoy offering direct-entry CA on the 175 with a signing bonus and flow to AA.
Someone will think of that sooner or later, but for now look at UAL saving ExpressJet - very senior pilot group. Pay aside, fringe benefits of 20+ yos group give beancounters indigestion
 
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