Is there any doubt left...

#1
...that we are in for a market correction in the near future? Buffet is hoarding cash. Something he has traditionally done when he thinks the market will turn bearish. Greenspan said last week that the bond bubble bursting would likely signal a run on the market and its anyone's guess what it may lead. Real estate is largely inflated again. Could it be another full-blown recession? What are the resident "market-watchers" thinking on this?

I'm almost fully out of the market at this point. There are many signs pointing to it. I have some real estate that has done phenomenally well the past couple years but many of those opportunities have disappeared in my local area. And as far as investing I've been largely conservative. I'm thinking a 10-15% correction is what we may be due for.
 
#2
And as a follow up... Is it anyone's guess at this point how our industry may be affected? Some say that the number of retirements will essentially negate many of the ill effect of a correction/recession.
 
#4
Good excuse to park high time high cycle older crj 200s and similar and ease the staffing issues at regionals.
Maybe... But if it comes to that I'm sure mainline will be affected as well. I'm thinking if a recession happens, then it's possible that mainline won't be hiring for the retirements. At least for a while.
 

milleR

Well-Known Member
#6
My gut tells me we're in for a correction. I was just reading through the Richmond Federal Reserve's monthly report and my main take-aways are that while unemployment continues to be extremely low, the participation rate is also low. Real personal income is down on an annual basis, if you draw a mean line through the building permits issued it would show a net decrease year over year and the composite manufacturing index is flat-lined while manufacturing actually cut 2,000 jobs last month. I've watched customers kick large capital project expenditures down the road as they put band aids on top of band aids over the past 9 months, waiting to see how things shake out. In my own business I've cut roughly 40 positions over the last year in an effort to get our overhead as lean as possible while margins continue to shrink in the face of consistently more frequent price based purchasing decisions and higher competition. While I'm not quite so pessimistic as to expect a full-blown recession, I do think the party is going to end and we'll have some good buying opportunities out there.
 

av8tr1

"Never tell me the odds!"
#7
...that we are in for a market correction in the near future? Buffet is hoarding cash. Something he has traditionally done when he thinks the market will turn bearish. Greenspan said last week that the bond bubble bursting would likely signal a run on the market and its anyone's guess what it may lead. Real estate is largely inflated again. Could it be another full-blown recession? What are the resident "market-watchers" thinking on this?

I'm almost fully out of the market at this point. There are many signs pointing to it. I have some real estate that has done phenomenally well the past couple years but many of those opportunities have disappeared in my local area. And as far as investing I've been largely conservative. I'm thinking a 10-15% correction is what we may be due for.
What goes up must come down. I think we are due for a major correction. Like 1000 points or more loss. There isn't anything tangible to support the high that we are at right now. It's going to hit hard like Mike Tyson to the face hard.

I got out of the market years ago and will likely never go back in.
 

wheelsup

Well-Known Member
#8
No I don't think we're due for a huge correction and even a minor one, like the guy posted above about a 1,000 point loss, is just a 5% loss. That is peanuts.

Earnings are good, jobs are good, inflation is low, this is a heck of a time to be invested.

Far more money has been lost waiting for a correction than in the actual correction.
 

learhawkerbe400

Well-Known Member
#9
...that we are in for a market correction in the near future? Buffet is hoarding cash. Something he has traditionally done when he thinks the market will turn bearish. Greenspan said last week that the bond bubble bursting would likely signal a run on the market and its anyone's guess what it may lead. Real estate is largely inflated again. Could it be another full-blown recession? What are the resident "market-watchers" thinking on this?

I'm almost fully out of the market at this point. There are many signs pointing to it. I have some real estate that has done phenomenally well the past couple years but many of those opportunities have disappeared in my local area. And as far as investing I've been largely conservative. I'm thinking a 10-15% correction is what we may be due for.
I remember you posting something very similar in maybe 2015?

Of course you can claim to be right if you're always saying something is just about to happen.
 

msmspilot

Well-Known Member
#10
So I've been thinking for a year we were due a market correction. On a personal, selfish note, I'd love a housing market correction, as I'm in the market to buy one. But with that said, the "crowd" thinks we're about to have a market correction, and one thing I know about the market is it's hard to go wrong betting against the crowd.

But then, I'm a pilot, not a market analyst or a financial guy at all. So what do I know?
 
#11
I remember you posting something very similar in maybe 2015?

Of course you can claim to be right if you're always saying something is just about to happen.
I have genuinely thought (and historically speaking I should be correct) that we would have had a market correction by now. I've been (pleasantly) surprised this past year or so and I'm happy to say I was wrong in 2015. I just think signs are increasingly pointing towards a correction/recession.
 

wheelsup

Well-Known Member
#12
I have genuinely thought (and historically speaking I should be correct) that we would have had a market correction by now. I've been (pleasantly) surprised this past year or so and I'm happy to say I was wrong in 2015. I just think signs are increasingly pointing towards a correction/recession.
What data is pointing you in that direction since 2015?

The big run up we've seen after the election was because of the thought that Trump would gut regulation, stop the ACA, and reduce corporate income taxes. If those start to look like failed promises, you'll probably see a pull back just from human nature but even without doing those things earnings are kicking butt still.
 
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#14
And as a follow up... Is it anyone's guess at this point how our industry may be affected? Some say that the number of retirements will essentially negate many of the ill effect of a correction/recession.
Markets go up, markets go down. I have no idea what they will do. After a 9 year bull market, I'm not personally buying equities as of this year. But I'm not selling what I own either.
 

Cessnaflyer

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
#15
It does feel time for a correction but I'm still buying away. With my time frame I'm hoping for, everything is on sale compared to future value. My ideal scenario is most prices stay steady until earnings and incomes start coming up.
 
#16
What data is pointing you in that direction since 2015?

The big run up we've seen after the election was because of the thought that Trump would gut regulation, stop the ACA, and reduce corporate income taxes. If those start to look like failed promises, you'll probably see a pull back just from human nature but even without doing those things earnings are kicking butt still.
Historic market trends.
Since 2015 you missed out on more gains than what even a steep correction could take away.
I've done pretty well elsewhere besides the market...
 

mikecweb

Third Generation Arizonan
#19
What goes up must come down. I think we are due for a major correction. Like 1000 points or more loss. There isn't anything tangible to support the high that we are at right now. It's going to hit hard like Mike Tyson to the face hard.

I got out of the market years ago and will likely never go back in.
I wouldn’t even turn to the next page if the Dow if that’s you are referring to lost 1000 points. That wouldn’t even count as a correction. I’d like to see the market drop 3-4K. It’s healthy for the market to go down some. Outside of drug dealing the US stock market is still the most solid investment choice you can make for the most part.
 
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