good news for you folks.. maybe

Eagle

New Member
from AVWEB this morning..


Airline Recovery Begins (Blackout Notwithstanding)
As in just about everything else, timing is everything in financial forecasting. Just two days before a blackout paralyzed a good part of the North American airline industry, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) was giving a rosy outlook for the coming two years. It's too early to tell what effect the millions in losses from Thursday's blackout will have on the incipient recovery but if ICAO is right it might be just a minor blip in an otherwise upward trend, worldwide. The Montreal-based group says passenger traffic will rebound by 4.4 percent in 2004 and a healthy 6.3 percent the following year. That will more than wipe out the net 2.5 percent overall reduction in traffic since 9/11. North American carriers will be the slowest to recover, however. They won't hit 2000 passenger figures until 2004. Asian markets, hardest hit by the SARS outbreak, will also take time to recover but by 2005 growth should be about 6.9 percent. Long-term forecasts suggest the growth rate will stabilize at about 4 percent, slightly less than was predicted before 9/11.
 

lilrkt

New Member
Well here's for hoping! It's at least encouraging to hear on the eve of my request for yet another huge loan from the bank.
 

MQAAord

Scheherazade
Staff member
I am so sick of hearing about the airlines being so financially strapped by the blackout. The New Year's Blizzard of 1998 shut down everything from RFD to ORD to DTW and everything in between for just as long! The problem is that the airlines have reduced capacity so much that there's absolutly zero slack in the system to absorb the passengers when this happens. All the flights are booked so full that when flights cancel, there's no room on any other flights to get those people from the cancelled flights out on!

Didn't Pan Am, National, Braniff, and TWA teach us that you can't downsize to profitablilty?
 

Derg

Cap, Roci
Staff member
Isn't it hilarious?

If you look at any airline press release, it's:

blahblahblahblahblahblahSARSblahblahblahblahblahwar in IraqblahblahblahblahblahblahNYC Blackoutblahblahblahblahblahblahprice of tea in China went up .01%blahblahblahblahblahno other excuse for our mismanagementblahblahblahblah

Ok, maybe the last part I didn't actually read...

Or was it just between the lines?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it hilarious?

If you look at any airline press release, it's:

blahblahblahblahblahblahSARSblahblahblahblahblahwar in IraqblahblahblahblahblahblahNYC Blackoutblahblahblahblahblahblahprice of tea in China went up .01%blahblahblahblahblahno other excuse for our mismanagementblahblahblahblah

Ok, maybe the last part I didn't actually read...

Or was it just between the lines?


[/ QUOTE ] HAHAHAHAHA
 

pilot602

If specified, this will replace the title that
[ QUOTE ]
Or was it just between the lines?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well .. either there or between all the management retirement packages and bonuses and pats on the back ...

 

tonyw

Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it hilarious?

If you look at any airline press release, it's:

blahblahblahblahblahblahSARSblahblahblahblahblahwar in IraqblahblahblahblahblahblahNYC Blackoutblahblahblahblahblahblahprice of tea in China went up .01%blahblahblahblahblahno other excuse for our mismanagementblahblahblahblah

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you gotta wonder about the "talented" management. I mean, what kind of manager, knowing he's in a very cyclical industry, pisses away most of his cash reserves buying back stock when he's making money hand over fist? Something about retiring debt, maybe putting some money aside for the inevitable rainy day, and so on seems to be prudent fiscal management to me, but what the hell do I know, I only have a bachelor's in business, not some MBA.

Do they teach you in MBA school to piss away any spare cash you have or something? Sure seems like it. A lot of airline "managers" seemed to believe in it and a Harvard MBA that's in the White House does, too.
 

MedFlyer

New Member
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you gotta wonder about the "talented" management. I mean, what kind of manager, knowing he's in a very cyclical industry, pisses away most of his cash reserves buying back stock when he's making money hand over fist? Something about retiring debt, maybe putting some money aside for the inevitable rainy day, and so on seems to be prudent fiscal management to me, but what the hell do I know, I only have a bachelor's in business, not some MBA.

Do they teach you in MBA school to piss away any spare cash you have or something? Sure seems like it. A lot of airline "managers" seemed to believe in it and a Harvard MBA that's in the White House does, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to wonder about pilots that demand raises as the economy is collapsing into a recession? Or give up concessions when the economy is booming? Or run work slow downs that send customers running to their competitors?

There's no doubt many airline's have poor management, but the pilots unions are just as guilty.

As for passenger traffic, it is rebounding. Unfortunately, only those carriers that have a realistic cost structure and business plans will get to enjoy the fruits of the rebounding traffic numbers.
 

tonyw

Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
You have to wonder about pilots that demand raises as the economy is collapsing into a recession? Or give up concessions when the economy is booming? Or run work slow downs that send customers running to their competitors?

As for passenger traffic, it is rebounding. Unfortunately, only those carriers that have a realistic cost structure and business plans will get to enjoy the fruits of the rebounding traffic numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, puhlease. Damn straight they demanded a raise, and they very well should have. After all, when your company is making money hand over fist and pissing it away on stock buybacks -- something that's going to result in you having to give concessions later -- you damn well better get some cash from the "talented" managers while you can. After all, those "managers" were going to get millions in golden parachutes after they screwed things up, so why shouldn't the people who actually do something get something while the getting's good?

And passenger traffic is rebounding, but it's people who don't really make any money for the airlines. The business traveller, who is the one who makes the money for airlines, hasn't come back yet. When he does, and he will, then you'll see the so called dinosaurs making boatloads of money again.

It's funny. The same "experts" who railed against the "bloated" contracts at traditional carriers are the same ones who praised various airlines for buying labor peace with those "bloated" contracts when they were inked.
 
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