Future Speculation

Green12324

Well-Known Member
Worst: Major airlines declare bankruptcy and liquidate, new entrants emerge "airline deregulation act" style and offer much less lucrative careers.

Best: Temporary reductions in pay and/or force are put in place after October, everyone is recalled and pay restored in anticipation of back to normal travel in summer 2021.

I won't even speculate as to what the most probable is except somewhere between the two. Way too many variables and not enough information to make an educated guess. As the industry stands at this moment, we're closer to worst case territory.

For anyone facing uncertainty in October I'd say it never hurts to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We're all used to playing the non rev game and having plan A, B, C, D, etc. Sometimes you make it on the direct flight against all odds, sometimes you have to make some unexpected stops before getting back home. Same idea here. Some of us will stick around by the skin of our teeth, some will do some odd jobs before getting back to the career we love. It will all work out in end, just try not to sweat what you can't control and do have a plan for any scenario.
 
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fsxflyhigh

Well-Known Member
Worst: Major airlines declare bankruptcy and liquidate, new entrants emerge "airline deregulation act" style and offer much less lucrative careers.

Best: Temporary reductions in pay and/or force are put in place after October, everyone is recalled and pay restored in anticipation of back to normal travel in summer 2021.

I won't even speculate as to what the most probable is except somewhere between the two. Way too many variables and not enough information to make an educated guess. As the industry stands at this moment, we're closer to worst case territory.

For anyone facing uncertainty in October I'd say it never hurts to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We're all used to playing the non rev game and having plan A, B, C, D, etc. Sometimes you make it on the direct flight against all odds, sometimes you have to make some unexpected stops before getting back home. Same idea here. Some of us will stick around by the skin of our teeth, some will do some odd jobs before getting back to the career we love. It will all work out in end, just try not to sweat what you can't control and do have a plan for any scenario.
I think you are spot on with the non-rev game mentality. Sometimes you get lucky and make it on a sold out flight or sometime don't get on a wide open flight and get stuck in El Paso overnight because of a Houston thunderstorm (still annoyed about that one haha). Either way having plans A-Q will always help you get home and it's the same during this crisis.

Unfortunately things have been so rapidly changing that it really is hard to say what the industry will exactly be at in October. While it's pretty certain that demand likely won't return to 100% by the fall, anywhere from small to large recovery is possible as continued testing ramps up and restrictions are relaxed. The main thing is international travel won't be recovering for quite a while. I'm probably fooling myself and failing to accept reality but I really want to believe things will at least recover enough that most of us will still be able to walk in our NOC/SOC/OCC fully employed after October 1st
 

PackerFan3781

Well-Known Member
I’ve pretty much accepted the fact that my dispatch career is over even though I have 3 years experience. No way I’m picking up and moving for yet another entry level job only to know that it’ll be highly unlikely that an opportunity for the majors will ever come. If it does, it’ll be 10 times as competitive than it was pre-Covid. Time to learn a trade a get my hands dirty again
 

4EngineETOPS

Well-Known Member
While it's a good idea to have a backup plan, I'd not worry too much and wait it out until at least the end of the year to see how things shake out. Even if major hiring is a worst-case scenario and doesn't happen for years, it looks like low-cost demand is coming back faster than business travel, so there's a fair chance the LCCs (maybe even Southwest at some point) hire sooner than we think. The various cargo carriers are also great destinations for a while, if not a career. For the record, I think a 2-3 year forecast for a passenger major to hire is realistic. It will certainly take time to recover, but I think some people in the industry are taking a victim mentality and overreacting (no, it almost definitely won't take a decade for a pax major class to be hired). None of us can accurately predict what's going to happen, so stick it out until the calendar turns to 2021 and see where everything is.
 

kalan31

Well-Known Member
I can easily see majors having to hire in next 2-3 years simply to replace those who were furloughed, who choose not to come back. Obviously a good number will return, however I think there will be those furloughed who make the switch back to a 9-5, weekends/holidays off kind of job and decide it's not worth it to come back.
 

ATLiens

Well-Known Member
I think it all has to do with vaccine or medical intervention of the virus. There is a lot of optimism that a vaccine could be made in record time. Or a medical break through. Something to get people’s confidence back. If these things happen by fall or by early next year- I think things could be back in full swing by next spring and summer. But if vaccine fail and we have a big outbreak in the fall- I think this going to get very very ugly for all of us.

For all of you worried about Majors not hiring forever keep this in mind. A lot of senior dispatchers are retiring from majors. Not enough of them to prevent furloughs in the fall but at my airline I think the number is around 10 and the airline hasn’t even come out with an early retirement plan yet to help encourage some more folks. So let’s say optimistically they get 20-25 people to retire. They still furlough in October and by next summer they bring everybody back and 5-10 people decide they aren’t coming back. They could easily be hiring again in 2 years max. I understand this is very optimistic but I don’t think it’s out of the question either.
 

Avolar

Well-Known Member
We have to stay positive. Pray and hope that hiring will resume sometime later this year. I agree with 4enginesETOPS, we cant predict what will happen so just stick it out. I feel too many here are asking when we can move back into our house as the firemen are still trying to put out the fire. Stay positive.
 

Scarebus

Well-Known Member
I can easily see majors having to hire in next 2-3 years simply to replace those who were furloughed, who choose not to come back. Obviously a good number will return, however I think there will be those furloughed who make the switch back to a 9-5, weekends/holidays off kind of job and decide it's not worth it to come back.
I would love to find a second career that quickly but I’m not sure how possible that will be during the Great Depression 2.0. I think everyone recalled will go back.
 

Flagship_dxer

Legacy Airline Dispatcher
I would love to find a second career that quickly but I’m not sure how possible that will be during the Great Depression 2.0. I think everyone recalled will go back.
I think most would come back. However, there are probies right now could potentially be let go permanently. That is something to watch for at all the majors and LCCs that hired late last year into early this year. I think most majors and LCCs will come to agreements with the unions for allowing re-call rights but if negotiations stall or there are bad eggs that management/union want gone, there might be some probies that dont come back.
 

paincorp

Well-Known Member
Jeez. When Republic walked their pilots, they added them to the seniority list so they at least had recall rights. I hope they would get the same thing.
 

Flagship_dxer

Legacy Airline Dispatcher
Republic has furloughed. This down turn is going to hurt small markets and regional jets as well. Furloughs will probably happen at other regionals this fall. Maybe all of them given the lack of attrition to the majors. This will make things more difficult for those that are newly licensed to get their first job.
 

paincorp

Well-Known Member
I understand, but they didn’t play the game you were alluding to about not giving everyone recall rights. Granted probation changes all that.
 

azmedic

Well-Known Member
In addition to republic you have probably about 40 dispatchers between Compass and Waterski that are looking for work too


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disgaupin

OneAirplaneBoi
I’ve pretty much accepted the fact that my dispatch career is over even though I have 3 years experience. No way I’m picking up and moving for yet another entry level job only to know that it’ll be highly unlikely that an opportunity for the majors will ever come. If it does, it’ll be 10 times as competitive than it was pre-Covid. Time to learn a trade a get my hands dirty again
Get some IT certificates! Comptia A+/ Network+ and you got yourself into IT! Its my backup at the moment :p
 

fsxflyhigh

Well-Known Member
Norfolk Southern is hiring Train Dispatchers in Atlanta, GA...just saying. Personally, I am not ready to jump ship quite yet. I'm waiting till August/September to panic.
 
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