Furlough Estimates

AAPalmTree

Well-Known Member
Lay it out for me. What's the total fatalities if the entire united States is infected. That population, for reference, is 328.5 million people.
What is the CFR for the flu?
How many people die per year of the flu?
Attach that cfr to your reference number.
 

Ecl!pse

Well-Known Member
Lay it out for me. What's the total fatalities if the entire united States is infected. That population, for reference, is 328.5 million people.
By my quick math, using the source data provided (more than just the table above), assuming all 328.5 million people in the US got Covid-19 (not realistic) that table would suggest ~850k:

US Pop infected (assuming every single person got infected): 328.5mm
Asymptomatic case estimate: 35%
Symptomatic cases: 1 - 35% = 65%
Symptomatic case fatality rate = 0.004
Deaths in this scenario = 328.5mm * 0.65 * 0.004 = 0.8541mm

Of course, this scenario isn’t particularly realistic, because not everyone in the US will get Covid-19. I don’t see an estimate for % of the population that never contracts it in the first place, and the assumption for asymptomatic cases is a pretty significant input. We can probably assume that the estimate above gets lower when factoring in that 100% of the population won’t get it.
 

Roger Roger

Paid to sleep, fly for fun
Other countries ran the math for us and tell us the CDC is using fuzzy math. But don’t worry about it, go out and buy buy buy! Just ignore the dead bodies like we do the oceans full of trash and the warming climate!
 

learhawkerbe400

Well-Known Member
Agreed. I just read another article this morning discussing if AA is going to even exist as they continue to burn 50-70 MILLION dollars/day, and he thinks there are going to be zero furloughs?

I'm an AA Executive Platinum and wish nothing but the best for AA. But some people are seriously sticking their head in the ground around here.
Those seeking alpha articles are garbage. AA will end the 2nd quarter with almost 12b in liquidity. Cash burn is continuing to go down and they’ve stated if we can get to 40% of 2019 levels cash burn will be almost zero.

Obvi this is bad, but as long as the recovery doesn’t take a big dump that the analysts don’t see coming AA will be ok.
 

jtrain609

Uniting the black vote.
By my quick math, using the source data provided (more than just the table above), assuming all 328.5 million people in the US got Covid-19 (not realistic) that table would suggest ~850k:

US Pop infected (assuming every single person got infected): 328.5mm
Asymptomatic case estimate: 35%
Symptomatic cases: 1 - 35% = 65%
Symptomatic case fatality rate = 0.004
Deaths in this scenario = 328.5mm * 0.65 * 0.004 = 0.8541mm

Of course, this scenario isn’t particularly realistic, because not everyone in the US will get Covid-19. I don’t see an estimate for % of the population that never contracts it in the first place, and the assumption for asymptomatic cases is a pretty significant input. We can probably assume that the estimate above gets lower when factoring in that 100% of the population won’t get it.
Thanks!

You might be right, 100% infection rates might be a little overboard.

But Germany predicted they'd end up with a 70% infection rate.


So let's use that.

854100 * .7 is 597870.

I guess I'm just shocked that there are people out there who care more about their jobs than 600,000 of their fellow Americans dying in a reasonably short period of time.
 

Screaming_Emu

Joe Conventional
Thanks!

You might be right, 100% infection rates might be a little overboard.

But Germany predicted they'd end up with a 70% infection rate.


So let's use that.

854100 * .7 is 597870.

I guess I'm just shocked that there are people out there who care more about their jobs than 600,000 of their fellow Americans dying in a reasonably short period of time.
I’d like to be shocked, but I’m not.
 

AAPalmTree

Well-Known Member
Thanks!

You might be right, 100% infection rates might be a little overboard.

But Germany predicted they'd end up with a 70% infection rate.


So let's use that.

854100 * .7 is 597870.

I guess I'm just shocked that there are people out there who care more about their jobs than 600,000 of their fellow Americans dying in a reasonably short period of time.
What numbers are you using here?
Do you mean:
328,500,000*.7= 229,950,000 infected
229,950,000*.004=919,800 deaths?
 

Ecl!pse

Well-Known Member
What numbers are you using here?
Do you mean:
328,500,000*.7= 229,950,000 infected
229,950,000*.004=919,800 deaths?
@jtrain609’s math, which is correct with those assumptions/inputs:

US pop: 328.5mm
% infected: 70%
US pop infected: 328.5 * 0.7 = 230mm
% asymptomatic: 35%
% symptomatic: 65%
US pop symptomatic: 230mm * 0.65 = 150mm
Symptomatic fatality rate: 0.004
US deaths: 150mm * 0.004 = 0.6mm (600k)

Note - I’m not saying I agree with the calculation above, just pointing out the numbers and math. I think we have a long way to go before we’ve validated the estimates on asymptomatic % and total infected %. We will see.
 

Seggy

Well-Known Member
Our CEO sent out an email today indicating we would be overstaffed by 30% going into the fall and begging people to take voluntary leave to save jobs. That traditionally hasn't been effective among pilots. They just can't sweeten the pot enough. Its heart breaking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It is heart breaking/sickening.

What do you think changed his tune? Wasn't he saying a week ago how things were going great?

Interesting to see the race to the Kool Aid among us pilots on who will go bankrupt first, who will liquidate, etc, not realizing that if one declares, we all most likely will. A buddy of mine at my place, who is a March 2015 hire, was getting texts from a buddy of his a few weeks ago who just finished initial IOE at Delta offering my buddy condolences on his impending furlough (he well may be furloughed) while his friend, who just finished initial IOE, won't be out on the street.....
 

AAPalmTree

Well-Known Member
@jtrain609’s math, which is correct with those assumptions/inputs:

US pop: 328.5mm
% infected: 70%
US pop infected: 328.5 * 0.7 = 230mm
% asymptomatic: 35%
% symptomatic: 65%
US pop symptomatic: 230mm * 0.65 = 150mm
Symptomatic fatality rate: 0.004
US deaths: 150mm * 0.004 = 0.6mm (600k)

Note - I’m not saying I agree with the calculation above, just pointing out the numbers and math. I think we have a long way to go before we’ve validated the estimates on asymptomatic % and total infected %. We will see.
Ok. I didn’t see he was splitting symptomatic/ asymptomatic.

@jtrain609
We have 1,650,000 cases in the us.
Are you really saying we’re going to hit 230,000,000?
 

AAPalmTree

Well-Known Member
I'm just a pilot, but there are a whole bunch of epidemiologists who are running scared.

There's a reason for that.
I honestly think we may get there. I think what will come out in the wash is a much lower cfr. I also think we are WAY beyond 1.64m cases.
 

arkflyr

Well-Known Member
What do you think changed his tune? Wasn't he saying a week ago how things were going great?
I don’t think he has changed his tune all that much. They’ve been saying all along how they are planning on different recovery models, everything from the catastrophe continues to a more normal recessionary slowdown.

Now earlier this week they filed an 8k to update their forecast for the second quarter. They announced revised earnings and that bookings turned positive for the first time since this mess started. The numbers are still really bad but trending upward. They’ve also said they are committing to not booking the airplanes full until the end of July which is causing them to add extra flying back earlier.

They are announcing the early retirement plan on June 1st, it is going to be department specific and they say the best deal they’ve ever offered. Time will tell on that. I’m at 80% so I’m preparing for the worst and hoping for the best right now.

Here is what they filed if you are interested.

 
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