Furlough Estimates

BEEF SUPREME

Well-Known Member
Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.
I like small boobies anyhow


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mikecweb

Well-Known Member
Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.
I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.
 

Screaming_Emu

Joe Conventional
I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.
Flying with me for two legs definitely should get someone a one way ticket to the majors.

Seriously though, that overnight in HKG was one of the highlights of my time here. I obviously hope it doesn't happen, but selfishly I wouldn't hate it if any of my friends who get furloughed happened to land here. Fantastic people is the only thing this place is missing.
 

mikecweb

Well-Known Member
Flying with me for two legs definitely should get someone a one way ticket to the majors.

Seriously though, that overnight in HKG was one of the highlights of my time here. I obviously hope it doesn't happen, but selfishly I wouldn't hate it if any of my friends who get furloughed happened to land here. Fantastic people is the only thing this place is missing.
Mine too. The fact that we knew each other when we just dreamed of flying airplanes let alone 747s and got to fly a trip together to some far off place was one of the highlights of my career. It's what keeps you going. It just saddens me that at this place, called jetcareers, it's now popular to just compare notes on how much you shouldn't like your job and what other industries are better, what degrees we all should have gotten, and how foolish it is to, you know, be a community. It's sad.
 

BobDDuck

Island Bus Driver
It just saddens me that at this place, called jetcareers, it's now popular to just compare notes on how much you shouldn't like your job and what other industries are better, what degrees we all should have gotten, and how foolish it is to, you know, be a community. It's sad.
If you go back and look at the posts made in 2008 you'll see the same thing. Probably the same thing would have been happening in 2002 as well if there were enough people actually working professionally on the site. I certainly remember Tenney talking about getting out back then.

The industry is cyclical. We've been here before and wellbeing here again. People need to be prepared (financially and emotionally) as best they can and then (unless they are on an MEC or Committee that actually can make agreements with the company they work for) just go along for the ride.
 

jynxyjoe

The Kickin' Chicken!
The "you can't shrink to profitability" bit is true to a certain extent, but isn't absolute. If you're a service provider, you can only employ as many people in the field as you have customers to keep them busy. At the same time, you need a certain amount of infrastructure to employ and support them. Any cuts in the field need to be matched, if not exceeded, by reductions in fixed overhead, and at a certain point you're taking off muscle and bone that will impact your ability to conduct business at all. You certainly CAN shrink to profitability, but there's a hard line at which point you can't support the remaining field service team and no longer have a viable business. The companies that survive will figure out how to be more agile and how to do more with less overhead expenses in real estate, management structure, taxes, benefits, payroll et al.
So... Kinda. Im not saying you cant imagine a scenario where you shrink to profitablity, im saying in the real world you can't. Whatever you do in your business your peers will do, especially cutting costs.

You know how people say "good fences make good neighbors?" And some nerdy dipwad then says, "the author was being ironic when he said that and that given certain imagined scenarios in the poetry book we dont have to live like that and mankind is the opposite-" you woke up later having passed into a coma from boredom or, if youve heard guys do this before you scream, "whoooooo CARESSS!??!" Im trying to be that first guy here, not the bespectacled nerd.

New revenue, new tricks to increase your margin in a very competitive market, those sorts of things get you out of this muck. Of course you cut payroll and other costs, airlines arent charity, but cutting costs is easy, its what everyone does, it's not imaginative.

You can't shrink into profitability. When everyone copies what you are doing correctly and you copy what they're doing correctly in this environment, you still need about 4/5s the other airlines to go away. Hopefully these pax numbers get back to the high 1 million or low 2 million, but its been months and its not happening. Margin call is due unless cares part duex enters the game.
 

JordanD

Honorary Member
Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.
"You have a headache? It's probably a malignant brain tumor, you'll probably be dead in 6 months."

"I was just telling them they should get their affairs in order!"
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Evil Landlord Capitalist
I've spread false optimism? I can't even comment on demand in other segments, not even freight, without being called a fat retard. At least I have skin in the game and I've worked my blank blank to get to where I am today, which i haven't once forgotten. Those not humbled by the process didn't struggle enough.
Have I excused someone else calling you names or taken part in it? No, to the contrary, I’ve called the person out who has. As to the rest, I guess good for you?

"You have a headache? It's probably a malignant brain tumor, you'll probably be dead in 6 months."

"I was just telling them they should get their affairs in order!"
Yes, clearly that’s analogous to what’s taking place here.
 

Rocketman99

Frozen Guppy Manipulator
What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.
 

ComplexHiAv8r

Well-Known Member
@GypsyPilot I take serious issue with you saying that I'm callously playing yo-yo with peoples lives. I was actually, very seriously considering going to XJT when I had my hours for their exceptional training and also the AVIATE program. Also and this is very important. Many people here are new to the site and have either never heard of, or have forgotten about a older regular poster on here by the name BM. Who is an XJT captain, great guy.

In recent better days in this industry, while I was in SLC he stayed in touch with me during my training and even offered to walk my app in personally. We used to talk at length about XJT and their training program. He's a friend and both he and his family are going to be greatly affected by this closure. I WOULD NOT JOKE ABOUT THAT!

To continue.

I prefaced, that I wasn't sure if true. But, I was hopeful. Where I read that, social media, FB to be precise. On a very respected active member of this sites wall and also an ex-Jetlink pilot himself. I posted that here to find out if true.
I’ve been talking to BM. NOT good over there. 8(


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Eagle421flyer

Well-Known Member
Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.
I don't always agree with @SlumTodd_Millionaire but he's right on this one. Some of the people at my company aren't even taking it seriously, though they have gotten warn letters. "It's just a warn letter that doesn't mean they will furlough." Its literally in the title Warn, they are trying to Warn you, you are getting furloughed. If they didn't need to furlough they wouldn't send it. Maybe it's the younger crowd whose never been furloughed before? I don't know but apparently the wives are just as delusional as the pilots according to my wife.
 

mwflyer

Well-Known Member
If you go back and look at the posts made in 2008 you'll see the same thing. Probably the same thing would have been happening in 2002 as well if there were enough people actually working professionally on the site. I certainly remember Tenney talking about getting out back then.

The industry is cyclical. We've been here before and wellbeing here again. People need to be prepared (financially and emotionally) as best they can and then (unless they are on an MEC or Committee that actually can make agreements with the company they work for) just go along for the ride.
Exactly. 2008 was waaaay worse on this sight than anything I’m seeing now. Part of it was that you were getting kicked in the junk at a regional for half of what you do now.
 

jynxyjoe

The Kickin' Chicken!
What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.
He's wearing the mask most of the time hes suppose to and he isnt saying dont wear a mask. He philosophically thinks government shouldnt be ordering it while most people feel like the state is just protecting itself, me included.
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Evil Landlord Capitalist
What's even more amusing(?) is the lord high chief economy doomer here doesn't want to do the simplest thing that might help that problem, you know, to wear a • mask.

Part of the solution or part of the problem. We all know which side you're on, even if you don't.
I wear a mask. I don’t agree with mandates.

It'd actually be closer to being accurate if it was a nurse that barely ever saw patients and is now selling used cars and giving that advice.
@BEEF SUPREME I don’t like the language you used to describe him, but turns out you’re absolutely right about this guy. My apologies.
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
Well, I haven't engaged in any rumors at all, just theories based upon facts and experience. But my motivation is simple: to get people to wake up and prepare. I see an awful lot of people, including people right here in this thread, living in a fantasy world thinking that everything is going to be okay, when in reality, they need to be preparing for being without a flying job for a good long while.

I do find it interesting that someone who is sitting pretty at one of the very few aviation jobs on the planet right now that is semi-safe wants to downplay any worries that people in just about every other airline job should reasonably have and prepare for. Perhaps you should think about that and not spread false optimism that could put real people in a very bad position relatively soon.
You literally created a timeline of dates and pax demands based on those dates. With zero facts and experience and 100% guessing. Honestly I don't think I've ready anyone where say "we are going to be okay" other than people saying, I gotta get through the furlough. Then there's the extremist doomers who are arrogantly acting like they know the future plot, when it literally changes every month for good or bad. But now it's not "hey survive the furlough" it's "airlines are going to chapter 7, one or two airlines, most won't survive bankruptcy, no profit for decades, no demand return, no pilot ever hired again, need 85-90% load factor to churn a profit".

I mean I'm with him on this one, I think people are justifying wanting to leave or have had left the industry or enjoy being pessimistically negative. To sit here and say you've spouted out facts and and experience only is a flat- out lie. But I've never seen you own anything you've been wrong about. I do enjoy just messing around with you, even though we don't know eachother. But I do think some in this thread are really sending some guys already at rock bottom, over the cliff with theories based on your opinion. I know, your opinion is fact and always right.
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
I don't always agree with @SlumTodd_Millionaire but he's right on this one. Some of the people at my company aren't even taking it seriously, though they have gotten warn letters. "It's just a warn letter that doesn't mean they will furlough." Its literally in the title Warn, they are trying to Warn you, you are getting furloughed. If they didn't need to furlough they wouldn't send it. Maybe it's the younger crowd whose never been furloughed before? I don't know but apparently the wives are just as delusional as the pilots according to my wife.
I'm pretty sure this thread is well past the reality of furloughs and WARN letters being scare tactics. I haven't seen that rhetoric in pages.
 

mikecweb

Well-Known Member
You literally created a timeline of dates and pax demands based on those dates. With zero facts and experience and 100% guessing. Honestly I don't think I've ready anyone where say "we are going to be okay" other than people saying, I gotta get through the furlough. Then there's the extremist doomers who are arrogantly acting like they know the future plot, when it literally changes every month for good or bad. But now it's not "hey survive the furlough" it's "airlines are going to chapter 7, one or two airlines, most won't survive bankruptcy, no profit for decades, no demand return, no pilot ever hired again, need 85-90% load factor to churn a profit".

I mean I'm with him on this one, I think people are justifying wanting to leave or have had left the industry or enjoy being pessimistically negative. To sit here and say you've spouted out facts and and experience only is a flat- out lie. But I've never seen you own anything you've been wrong about. I do enjoy just messing around with you, even though we don't know eachother. But I do think some in this thread are really sending some guys already at rock bottom, over the cliff with theories based on your opinion. I know, your opinion is fact and always right.
Nailed it. I'm too socially retarded to say it that well. My apologies.
 

MikeFavinger

Hubschrauber Flieger
I've been wanting to write this for a while but figured things would just run their course and everything would be fine. But it's escalating even further and I have to express my opinion about @mikecweb .

BLUF - he's one of the good ones. He really is. If you were to pick ten people to stay and provide value on JC, he'd be one of them.

I haven't talked to Mike in a long while, but I met him back in 2006 or so. He's a dude who will not only faithfully put his head down and work for a goal, he's a guy who will take time out to help anyone interested. Like a lot of folks, he's CFI'd, done night freight, part 135 - you name it. He's probably worked at a lot of places like @BEEF SUPREME has and has most likely experienced a lot of BS along his career path. My uneducated guess on the reason for the current "beef" is the perception that some encountered obstacles and developed or displayed a "woe is me" attitude, where others faced obstacles and drive on with positivity towards their goal. I understand how it can be difficult to read about how someone is totally beat down by an industry segment when that person experienced all that, and maybe more, and persevered - and after persevering, tried to help, or shed perspective, but was rebuked.

Mike has helped so many people on this forum. Like, a retarded amount. He's fat on compassion and intellect and understanding. The reason he's in a decent place right now is because he's a really nice, dedicated, and hard working person. At a night freight place we both worked at, I saw him get to the highest level pilot position we had because he sacrificed and buckled down in the midst of others complaining they couldn't advance. (This is at a seniority shop). Mike simply makes the sacrifices required to achieve his goals all the while, never pulling up the ladder behind him.

Whatever is going on in this thread, Mike is not your enemy. He is a really descent person who is not only a kick ass aviator, he's a mentor and a role model. And I know he doesn't need me speaking on his behalf at all - but after he mentioned he might just bail on this forum I had to say something. If I could give those with a beef for Mike, and Mike himself some advice, I'd say to take a pause, read more than write, understand more than argue, and accept more than attack.
 
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