Furlough Estimates

BEEF SUPREME

Well-Known Member
Guess if I don't have an airline to go back to I should look at the military more seriously
Won’t be a bad place to hang the next 5-10 years.

Looks like my prediction of 10,000 pilots on the street by October, 1 was an underestimation


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ZapBrannigan

Old School
My ultra high level viewpoint is that developing state-owned carriers would require political cooperation and competency that we simply do not have anymore. I think we will see the path of least resistance which is likely just another financial injection.
Until March or April, and then what? Yet another? At some point they have to be allowed to survive or fail on their own - very likely with bankruptcies and decimated CBAs.


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Rocketman99

Frozen Guppy Manipulator
In that scenario, it wouldn't be some of the airlines but all of them. There's no way the gubbermint would allow that to happen, no matter how dysfunctional and partisan it is now.
 
Nothing from the company on that; we just hope we last until Oct. 1.
Where did you hear that?
Source? It certainly looks like via the two memos sent out yesterday (one from the CEO and the other from the MEC chairman) that things looked like they were coming to an end. That would be quite the turnaround in less than 24 hours if you heard they got a 2 year reprieve.
Max,
You made quite the bold statement here and have been asked to Cite your source. This is a very serious issue and it's not appropriate to play yo-yo with people's lives.

What is your source on this?
@GypsyPilot I take serious issue with you saying that I'm callously playing yo-yo with peoples lives. I was actually, very seriously considering going to XJT when I had my hours for their exceptional training and also the AVIATE program. Also and this is very important. Many people here are new to the site and have either never heard of, or have forgotten about a older regular poster on here by the name BM. Who is an XJT captain, great guy.

In recent better days in this industry, while I was in SLC he stayed in touch with me during my training and even offered to walk my app in personally. We used to talk at length about XJT and their training program. He's a friend and both he and his family are going to be greatly affected by this closure. I WOULD NOT JOKE ABOUT THAT!

To continue.

I prefaced, that I wasn't sure if true. But, I was hopeful. Where I read that, social media, FB to be precise. On a very respected active member of this sites wall and also an ex-Jetlink pilot himself. I posted that here to find out if true.
 
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jtrain609

Uniting the black vote.
Guys,


We've had a few bad months and y'all think we're going to be driving around like Fred • Flintstone for the rest of time.

The airlines aren't disappearing. Things will eventually get better. It might take a few years. I understand some of y'all haven't had careers longer than a few years so far, but seriously, stop panicking.
 

Autothrust Blue

“Bayonet!”
@GypsyPilot I take serious issue with you saying that I'm callously playing yo-yo with peoples lives. I was actually, very seriously considering going to XJT when I had my hours for their exceptional training and also the AVIATE program. Also and this is very important. Many people here are new to the site and have either never heard of, or have forgotten about a older regular poster on here by the name BM. Who is an XJT captain, great guy.

In recent better days in this industry, while I was in SLC he stayed in touch with me during my training and even offered to walk my app in personally. We used to talk at length about XJT and their training program. He's a friend and both he and his family are going to be greatly affected by this closure. I WOULD NOT JOKE ABOUT THAT!

To continue.

I prefaced, that I wasn't sure if true. But, I was hopeful. Where I read that, social media, FB to be precise. On a very respected active member of this sites wall and also an ex-Jetlink pilot himself. I posted that here to find out if true.
So you heard it from a sister’s boyfriend’s uncle who has a cousin who is a line check airman who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night.
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Evil Landlord Capitalist
I agree. I don't see how any of the majors survive this. If by January things aren't getting back to normal I wouldn't be surprised to see us going down the path of one or two state owned airlines that are government subsidized as essential air service. The rest, allowed to liquidate.


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Damn, you’re even more pessimistic than I am. My view is mass bankruptcies, a mix of 11 and 7, and we‘re left with a much smaller group of smaller airlines that are receiving government assistance for an extended period of time. I don’t see 2019 traffic again until at least 2030, if ever. The world is adapting, and I don’t think business travel is ever what it once was again.
 
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ZapBrannigan

Old School
Damn, you’re even more pessimistic than I am. My view is mass bankruptcies, a mix of 11 and 13, and we‘re left with a much smaller group of smaller airlines that are receiving government assistance for an extended period of time. I don’t see 2019 traffic again until at least 2030, if ever. The world is adapting, and I don’t think business travel is ever what it once was again.
The problem I see - and I'm not telling you anything you don't know - is that to successfully emerge from chapter 11 you need a viable business plan that investors can get support. Most of the airlines don't have a COST problem (or at least didn't in January). They have a revenue problem. I can't imagine that you could cut enough in labor contracts, aircraft leases, real estate, etc to offset such a dramatic drop in revenue. And, as one of my previous employers told me the week before furloughing me, "you can't shrink to profitability". Ironic, but still somewhat true. The value in an airline is in the strength of the network and its ability to generate revenue. If you shrink too much, you don't have the ability to come back from it.

The only solution I see would be chapter 7 for one or more majors, dividing up those customers among the rest until demand starts to return. I just don't see Chapter 11 as the answer this time (though I'm certain that some or all of the airlines will try)


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Autothrust Blue

“Bayonet!”
The problem I see - and I'm not telling you anything you don't know - is that to successfully emerge from chapter 11 you need a viable business plan that investors can get support. Most of the airlines don't have a COST problem (or at least didn't in January). They have a revenue problem. I can't imagine that you could cut enough in labor contracts, aircraft leases, real estate, etc to offset such a dramatic drop in revenue. And, as one of my previous employers told me the week before furloughing me, "you can't shrink to profitability". Ironic, but still somewhat true. The value in an airline is in the strength of the network and its ability to generate revenue. If you shrink too much, you don't have the ability to come back from it.

The only solution I see would be chapter 7 for one or more majors, dividing up those customers among the rest until demand starts to return. I just don't see Chapter 11 as the answer this time (though I'm certain that some or all of the airlines will try)


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We can fly it for no bucks an hour and not solve the problem, agreed.
 

mwflyer

Well-Known Member
Guys,


We've had a few bad months and y'all think we're going to be driving around like Fred • Flintstone for the rest of time.

The airlines aren't disappearing. Things will eventually get better. It might take a few years. I understand some of y'all haven't had careers longer than a few years so far, but seriously, stop panicking.
Exactly. It’s like everyone is trying to one up each other for the most dire prediction. Traffic was rebounding rapidly before the virus resurgence. We’d be well over a million passengers per day if that hadn’t happened. Possibly 1.5 million right now.

2019 was a record breaking year. Passenger loads don’t have to return that high for airlines to make a profit again. What that number is, I don’t know. Is it 1.8, 2 million, again, I dont know, but it isn’t 2.5 million passengers a day.
 

bimmerphile

SuperCritical™ Member
Exactly. It’s like everyone is trying to one up each other for the most dire prediction. Traffic was rebounding rapidly before the virus resurgence. We’d be well over a million passengers per day if that hadn’t happened. Possibly 1.5 million right now.

2019 was a record breaking year. Passenger loads don’t have to return that high for airlines to make a profit again. What that number is, I don’t know. Is it 1.8, 2 million, again, I dont know, but it isn’t 2.5 million passengers a day.
"Right sizing the operation" is the new "shrink to profitability"
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
Exactly. It’s like everyone is trying to one up each other for the most dire prediction. Traffic was rebounding rapidly before the virus resurgence. We’d be well over a million passengers per day if that hadn’t happened. Possibly 1.5 million right now.

2019 was a record breaking year. Passenger loads don’t have to return that high for airlines to make a profit again. What that number is, I don’t know. Is it 1.8, 2 million, again, I dont know, but it isn’t 2.5 million passengers a day.
Which just goes to prove how this thread and posting your opinion with absolutely nothing to back it is meaningless. Unfortunately, the forums are a dark place right now.
 

upup89

Well-Known Member
Exactly. It’s like everyone is trying to one up each other for the most dire prediction. Traffic was rebounding rapidly before the virus resurgence. We’d be well over a million passengers per day if that hadn’t happened. Possibly 1.5 million right now.

2019 was a record breaking year. Passenger loads don’t have to return that high for airlines to make a profit again. What that number is, I don’t know. Is it 1.8, 2 million, again, I dont know, but it isn’t 2.5 million passengers a day.
I remember in 2008 people saying the airlines were never going to hire an employee ever again. Par for the course this time also.
 

upup89

Well-Known Member
Humans are humans. And travelling will be popular again in the future.
I actually don’t think the airlines are in that bad of a position. It’s not a fear of getting sick on an airplane and its not a factor of people not having the money to fly. It’s a matter of what the hell am I going to do when I land? Those that know me personally know I go down to MSY every 2 or 3 months. Bourbon street is totally closed, my favorite bar in Algiers is closed as well. Walking around and eating takeout in my hotel doesn’t sound like much fun. When things start to open again and I mean really open, not Trump’s liberate whoever, their will be a lot of pent up travel demand.
 

Flyinthrew

Well-Known Member
UA’s major muscle movements on Thursday appear to have sent aviation bonkers. GDP shrinkage yesterday fit the mood and added fuel to the fire. I’m just standing in the corner reminiscing about how all the posts are strangely reminiscent of what people were saying in early April. I lost sleep over some of those until I realized that that is just how some people are. There is nothing necessarily wrong with that, but one just has to recognize it and let it slide off. Continue to make the best decisions for yourself and your family.

Objectively, the score right now is that we know how long each major company can hold its breath. They will continue to downsize. Regionals are going to continue to be horrible and many will shutter. It is anybody’s guess what the future holds. Passenger traffic had consistent upward growth and with good velocity throughout late May and all of June. It is currently almost 10x what it was in April and steady. It stayed essentially level even with this big increase in case rates. The recovery will continue to be very choppy. W shaped if you will.

Another note, and this one is a left turn. Wanna know what the biggest driver of the GDP shrinkage was? Healthcare. We took something that was apparently inelastic in demand and made it elastic. Or at least it seems that way at first. Healthcare has to roar back. We don’t really have a choice. Sure some boob jobs will never happen now, but most stuff that people are ignoring or suffering through right now HAVE to be addressed. Children having to catch up on immunizations to be able to go to school is just one small example.


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CFIT99

I'm probably commenting ironically...
Frontier sending WARN notices to 35% of pilots and flight attendants.
Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.
 

bimmerphile

SuperCritical™ Member
Seems a bit much, it it’s just another tool they have in the chest.

After talking with senior guys that have union exposure, they weren’t going to send notices at all, then they asked for some concessions (not sure what) and the union said No.

So they used the high percentage as a scare tactic...FWIW, after all measures have been exhausted, I can only see furloughing 10-12% for a short time.
I do believe that some of the "wowzers" numbers re: WARN notices are partially a shock and awe campaign for the folks on the Hill this week.
 
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