Furlough Calculator

BEEF SUPREME

Well-Known Member
Just wondering if anyone can tell me if there is a way to make an approximate guess at how many pilots will be furloughed if an airline chooses to park X% of its fleet.

So if airline A parks 50% of its aircraft does it roughly work out to 50% of the pilots? Or would to formula look like 300 aircraft parked * 7 pilots per aircraft = 2100 pilots?

I'm sure there are many other factors such as percentages of reserves etc. But I'm wondering if there is a way to figure it out.
 

chrisreedrules

Master Blaster
Napkin math says if you park half of your airplanes, you only need half the number of pilots to fly them...

That being said, it isn’t quite that simple due to contracts and the monetary cost / strategic cost of furloughing and needing to spoil up quickly or risk losing wide swaths of market share. Conventional wisdom says that unless you intend to not need the pilots for at least 18-24 months then the cost of a furlough may not be in fact worth it.

I personally think this will be more about the economic fallout than the virus itself (though make no mistake that will not be a pleasant period for airlines or their employees). Delta’s Bastian has already said he expects Delta to come out the other side of this much smaller and for the downturn to potentially last 3-4 years. So again, my personal opinion is that furloughs will likely result from this whole black swan watershed event we’re now in. Our economy is likely going to be incredibly wrecked. Trillions will be spent in stimulus but businesses will likely still fold and millions of jobs lost. Consumer confidence has already yanked and the VIX (Volatility Index) is almost off the charts. People simply won’t be traveling as much on the back side of this.

But anyway, here’s a good article I just read.
 

ShortField

No one of consequence
Just wondering if anyone can tell me if there is a way to make an approximate guess at how many pilots will be furloughed if an airline chooses to park X% of its fleet.

So if airline A parks 50% of its aircraft does it roughly work out to 50% of the pilots? Or would to formula look like 300 aircraft parked * 7 pilots per aircraft = 2100 pilots?

I'm sure there are many other factors such as percentages of reserves etc. But I'm wondering if there is a way to figure it out.
Did you listen to the podcast from the MEC? It explains a lot of this and some other stuff. Worth a listen.
 

Murdoughnut

Well sized member
Napkin math says if you park half of your airplanes, you only need half the number of pilots to fly them...

That being said, it isn’t quite that simple due to contracts and the monetary cost / strategic cost of furloughing and needing to spoil up quickly or risk losing wide swaths of market share. Conventional wisdom says that unless you intend to not need the pilots for at least 18-24 months then the cost of a furlough may not be in fact worth it.

I personally think this will be more about the economic fallout than the virus itself (though make no mistake that will not be a pleasant period for airlines or their employees). Delta’s Bastian has already said he expects Delta to come out the other side of this much smaller and for the downturn to potentially last 3-4 years. So again, my personal opinion is that furloughs will likely result from this whole black swan watershed event we’re now in. Our economy is likely going to be incredibly wrecked. Trillions will be spent in stimulus but businesses will likely still fold and millions of jobs lost. Consumer confidence has already yanked and the VIX (Volatility Index) is almost off the charts. People simply won’t be traveling as much on the back side of this.

But anyway, here’s a good article I just read.
Really good read
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
When these airlines talk they will be much shorter I don't know what that exactly means. Cutting regionals, not hiring after their retirements, letting fleets die off monthly, cut 200 aircraft immediately and furlough 2000 pilots, buyout retirements early? There are tons of options so being a "smaller" airline doesn't exactly mean you're going to furlough when you have hundreds of deliveries coming in a matter of years with thousands of retirements. That's gonna take some long term planning to figure that out. Cancel orders? How would you grow back (like Ed said) when you will start losing 800 a year? The hiring requirement would be so difficult to keep the airline staffed as many of the big 3 will see their seniority lists slashed in this decade alone.

My point is trying to solve this riddle and know how many will be furloughed seems very difficult. We all know financially makes sense to furlough over what 18 months? So I could see it happening but I also can see other alternatives. I mean all airlines will have to be smaller initially absolutely, but doesn't necessarily mean the furloughs are immediately coming with that with so many variables to be played out favoring staffing in a matter of years. That being said hiring will certain take a long pause. That's just my optimistic thoughts.
 

BEEF SUPREME

Well-Known Member
Yeah me too. Give it a listen at the hotel. Ain’t • else to do and might give you a little insight.
Sooooooo. I gave it a listen and well. I'm not feeling reassured at all. Look I volunteer for the union. I want things to go well here. Right now I'm a "rah rah yay" person. However I spent a lot of time on reserve flying with captains that spent a lot of time off property during the furlough(s) that happened at our shop. I listened to them. The biggest issue I heard was that pilots were picking up premium while pilots were on furlough. I'm not happy to say it, but unless there is a rule to stop people from doing this, it will only happen again. I'm 13% from the bottom and I'm basically already out the door. I've really enjoyed my time here. It was fun flying the 737. I hope I get to do it again some day.
 

Kingairer

'Tiger Team' Member
Napkin math says if you park half of your airplanes, you only need half the number of pilots to fly them...

That being said, it isn’t quite that simple due to contracts and the monetary cost / strategic cost of furloughing and needing to spoil up quickly or risk losing wide swaths of market share. Conventional wisdom says that unless you intend to not need the pilots for at least 18-24 months then the cost of a furlough may not be in fact worth it.

I personally think this will be more about the economic fallout than the virus itself (though make no mistake that will not be a pleasant period for airlines or their employees). Delta’s Bastian has already said he expects Delta to come out the other side of this much smaller and for the downturn to potentially last 3-4 years. So again, my personal opinion is that furloughs will likely result from this whole black swan watershed event we’re now in. Our economy is likely going to be incredibly wrecked. Trillions will be spent in stimulus but businesses will likely still fold and millions of jobs lost. Consumer confidence has already yanked and the VIX (Volatility Index) is almost off the charts. People simply won’t be traveling as much on the back side of this.

But anyway, here’s a good article I just read.
The use of the phrase "Napkin math" has spread like a virus on web boards in the past 5 days.
 

Kingairer

'Tiger Team' Member
When these airlines talk they will be much shorter I don't know what that exactly means. Cutting regionals, not hiring after their retirements, letting fleets die off monthly, cut 200 aircraft immediately and furlough 2000 pilots, buyout retirements early? There are tons of options so being a "smaller" airline doesn't exactly mean you're going to furlough when you have hundreds of deliveries coming in a matter of years with thousands of retirements. That's gonna take some long term planning to figure that out. Cancel orders? How would you grow back (like Ed said) when you will start losing 800 a year? The hiring requirement would be so difficult to keep the airline staffed as many of the big 3 will see their seniority lists slashed in this decade alone.

My point is trying to solve this riddle and know how many will be furloughed seems very difficult. We all know financially makes sense to furlough over what 18 months? So I could see it happening but I also can see other alternatives. I mean all airlines will have to be smaller initially absolutely, but doesn't necessarily mean the furloughs are immediately coming with that with so many variables to be played out favoring staffing in a matter of years. That being said hiring will certain take a long pause. That's just my optimistic thoughts.
I wish I was that optimistic, but I am not.
 

tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
I wish I was that optimistic, but I am not.
Well I am in the 99.5% or something like that and have sims next week. So either I stay positive and hope for the best or let my training go down in shambles as I am so worried about getting the f word. Hopefully if the worst happens we get calls back in 2 or 3 years. Who knows. Some days I wake up not this optimistic. lol
 

bimmerphile

SuperCritical™ Member
Well I am in the 99.5% or something like that and have sims next week. So either I stay positive and hope for the best or let my training go down in shambles as I am so worried about getting the f word. Hopefully if the worst happens we get calls back in 2 or 3 years. Who knows. Some days I wake up not this optimistic. lol
99.985, and people keep telling me not to worry
:tinfoil:
 

Kingairer

'Tiger Team' Member
I think my optimism of being able to pick up right where we left off after 1 or 2 months of distancing, is gone. I think the 2020s will do the MD80s/757/767 what the 2000s did to the 727. I think we will see "40" airplanes leave and "10-20" airplanes come in to replace them. New routes that were trials or a bit out of the norm, gone, cant avoid to risk losing money or waiting for it to turn profitable anymore. Once COVID does settle, if our economy is wrecked, companies are still going to be in "save" mode and things like business trips will be curtailed. People lose jobs, cant travel for vacations or pleasure. Hopefully retirements can allow them to furlough hundreds of pilots off the top each year. Slap someone if they talk about wanting age 68.

Lets see what congress comes up with in the next couple of days. Could be huge for our careers.
 

bike21

9-5 Ruins Lives
Finally found some TP today at Costco so optimism is high in general, so no furloughs ahead.

But ask me in the morning when the TP high fades. We're all doomed.

@BEEF SUPREME we could go work for my buddy's trail building business if this goes way south. He has contracts for the year or two at least.
 

Murdoughnut

Well sized member
I think my optimism of being able to pick up right where we left off after 1 or 2 months of distancing, is gone. I think the 2020s will do the MD80s/757/767 what the 2000s did to the 727. I think we will see "40" airplanes leave and "10-20" airplanes come in to replace them. New routes that were trials or a bit out of the norm, gone, cant avoid to risk losing money or waiting for it to turn profitable anymore. Once COVID does settle, if our economy is wrecked, companies are still going to be in "save" mode and things like business trips will be curtailed. People lose jobs, cant travel for vacations or pleasure. Hopefully retirements can allow them to furlough hundreds of pilots off the top each year. Slap someone if they talk about wanting age 68.

Lets see what congress comes up with in the next couple of days. Could be huge for our careers.
Right now we're forecasting a 90-day valley, and an 18-month recovery period - and even that may be too optimistic.
 

Eagle421flyer

Well-Known Member
It will also depend on how many cola’s the company offers and how many people take the cola’s. In my experience from being furloughed they came out and said anyone XXXX number and above is being offered a cola. So you knew if you were below that number you were furlough fodder. But if you were the first person below it there was some hope because of enough people took the cola you might be spared.


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tcco94

Professional GTA V Pilot
Has this industry in any bail outs had the restrictions they are trying to place on the companies and how they use said bail out money? And after bail out money how many airlines have still gone on to furlough?

Just curiously asking because I don't know. Seems like it's going to piss off taxpayers off when airlines are bailed out then go onto furlough thousands (not just pilots but employees as a whole). I guess unless we are all heading to chp. 11 then anything is on the table, right?
 

Eagle421flyer

Well-Known Member
Has this industry in any bail outs had the restrictions they are trying to place on the companies and how they use said bail out money? And after bail out money how many airlines have still gone on to furlough?

Just curiously asking because I don't know. Seems like it's going to piss off taxpayers off when airlines are bailed out then go onto furlough thousands (not just pilots but employees as a whole). I guess unless we are all heading to chp. 11 then anything is on the table, right?
I will be the first to admit I haven’t read whatever it is they want to pass. But after 9/11 I know that not every airline was bailed out. Bailouts typically go to the bigger airlines (ie: ual/dal/swa/aa)


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