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Forcast SNOW ...

Discussion in 'General Topics' started by Bear, Aug 11, 2017.

  1. CFI A&P

    CFI A&P Well-Known Member

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    We did not always "know which way everything is spinning". Instead of mocking and ridiculing those involved, we did we fund and support the community that was researching that subject over hundreds of years. Remember that at one point in history the general consensus was that Earth is flat. Some still do think that.
     
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  2. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    https://apnews.com/898eed85b274435d...y-of-cold,-snow-for-this-winter-for-Northeast

    'North easterners, keep your mittens, boots and show shovel handy. The Farmer’s Almanac predicts a snowy winter from Maryland to Maine with five coastal storms to bring winter misery to the region. The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire acknowledged that “Being in the business of predicting long-range weather forecasts is exciting, worrisome and rewarding,” ….. “Many of our readers rejoice when we predict cold and snowy conditions while others complain that it’s too cold and wet. Yet we have to stick by our predictions no matter what Mother Nature may throw at us.” said managing editor Sandi Duncan

    The 2018 edition dubbed this winter: “The cold, the dry, and the wet, and the wild.” Its reclusive weather prognosticator, who works under a pseudonym, suggests colder-than-normal temperatures for eastern and central regions, wetter-than-normal weather for southeastern states and drier-than-normal conditions for the nation’s western third that was pummeled by snow last winter. It also predicts “wild” winter variations for the area where Arkansas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma meet.

    Looking to redeem themselves after missing the mark when heavy snow failed to materialize in the Midwest and the Middle Atlantic states were milder than anticipated last winter, editors continue to stick to their timeworn formula, even though they admit forecasting is an “inexact science.”

    Modern scientists are skeptical.

    Maine State Climatologist Sean Birkel prefers the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s number-crunching forecasts that rely on numerical models, statistics and observation.'
     
  3. wheelsup

    wheelsup Well-Known Member

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    Nice thing about global warming is none of us will have to even worry about it, it's going to take centuries for any meaningful large changes to happen and by then we'll be cooling it back down somehow with technology or humans will be wiped off the face of the planet in large scale plagues. I'm truly not worried about future generations, they can worry about their own problems.

    Now pollution I'm against and anything we can do to reduce that within reason I'm all for but let's not get carried away and completely gut economic progress in this country.
     
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  4. JordanD

    JordanD Sizeable Member

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    Except if you're paying attention, changes are already happening.

    I sincerely hope you don't have or plan on having kids or grandkids with that attitude.
     
  5. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    ....

    '… higher temperatures from climate change are going to be an economic gut punch for many countries predicts Marshall Burke, economist at conservative Stanford University. The poorest countries—most of which are also already pretty warm—will suffer the most. But even rich countries with their cubicles and air conditioning are going to feel the burn.

    HOT WEATHER SUCKS. Crops droop. Work slows down. People get testy. And it’s bad for business.

    Climate change will hit every level of an economy. Mentally and physically people work worse when they are hot. Rising seas and fiercer storms chew up infrastructure. And agricultural effects like crop failures reach far beyond borders. But all that stuff is years away, right?

    Wrong. As deniers like to say (maybe even in the comments!), climate is always changing. And it turns out that these changes show up in the economic record. The new study compared annual temperature to annual GDP for every country. “What we found is that temperature has played an important role in shaping GDP output in the last 50 years,” according the paper published today in Nature.

    Of course, the relationship between temperature and GDP isn’t linear. The study found that economic growth has a sweet spot: Around 55˚F. If the average annual temperature falls above or below that, GDP starts to taper off—slow at first, then very fast. “The graph looks like a strong inverted U,” says Edward Miguel, economist at UC Berkeley and another co-author of the study. At either end, the GDP remains fairly stable between 32 and 77 degrees F, but drops rapidly beyond those boundaries.

    This means that how poorly your country fares under climate change depends on its starting average temperature. “At colder temperatures, say Northern Europe, these countries grew a little bit faster when temperatures were warmer,” says Burke. By comparison, much of the developing world is already pretty warm, so its prospects are pretty grim.

    But wait, is Northern Europe going to get richer because it gets warmer, or because it’s already rich? “This is one thing we tried to be really careful with,” says Burke. In their statistical analyses, he and his co-authors controlled for things like preexisting wealth. Temperature is only one variable affecting GDP. “Culture matters, institutions matter, policy choices matter,” says Burke. “What we do find is looking historically, temperature matters a lot.” Which is important if the future world responds to temperature changes like the past world has.

    And not all rich countries are going to get richer. Part two of the study takes historical correlations between temperature and GDP and projects them forward under different climate models. In them, the economic wealth of countries like the US or China can’t compensate for their latitudinal girth. Both fare poorly in the “business as usual” emissions scenario explored in the study. “There will still be a number of days where Alabama or Texas are really hot, even if all of the US is still kind of cold,” says Miguel. And over the course of the year, as the years go on, the overall area of the US experiencing extremely hot days will increase. GDP suffers accordingly.

    Previous attempts to put climate change in terms of GDP have tripped over the jump from micro to macro. For example, how do a heat-struck worker in Arizona and a failed soy crop in Kansas and a stronger-than-average hurricane in Louisiana influence economic performance at a national level? In trying to add up all those microeconomic effects, studies can under- or overstate an inputs importance, or leave it out completely.

    This paper skips past all that, and simply looks at average temperature and GDP. “This is a very significant study,” says Jonathan Harris, economist from Tufts University. “It’s based on real data from 1960 to 2010, not just hypothetical projections.”

    Their verdict on how climate change will affect the global economy? “Overall economic production would fall by about 23 percent by 2100 if climate keeps changing under the current models,” says Miguel. That is a huge pile of money that never gets made; the deficit shared between countries both rich and poor.

    Some argue that the first world will buffer itself against climate change with technological innovations—air conditioning is credited with saving the American South’s economy, and agricultural companies are already breeding heat resistant crops. But historically—and based on this analysis—that hasn’t been and won’t be true. “If you look back to the 1960s to now, any subset of time between now and then shows a consistent pattern of temperature correlating to GDP,” says Matthias Ruth, economist at Northeastern University. Which means that so far, innovation hasn’t done squat. “And as climate continues to change, keeping pace becomes more difficult, and we will fall ever more behind,” says Ruth.

    This study put an even greater burden curbing international emissions. The world still has time to build a less dire future; But right now, the science is looking pretty dismal.'


    https://www.wired.com/2015/10/climate-change-is-going-to-cost-the-world-money-lots-of-money/
     
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  6. NovemberEcho

    NovemberEcho Well-Known Member

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    Think it was 2 years ago we had a 72 degree New Years in Ny. And last February a week of mid 70's. That has never happened before in my 33 years, most of it spent in this area
     
  7. wheelsup

    wheelsup Well-Known Member

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    Having kids is probably the most irresponsible thing one can do if they want to slow global warming.

    Al Gore uses more energy to heat his swimming pool at one of his mansions than the average homeowner does in an entire year for their house. We won't even delve into Leo's Gulfsteam jet flying back and forth with just himself in the back to collect - I kid you not - an environmental award in NYC.

    It's quite eye opening to me that those who scream the loudest are the biggest offenders. Just look at this web site, most on here burn thousands of gallons yearly flying jets with zero emissions controls whatsoever, you're basically setting oil on fire and letting it burn unabated. Repeated millions of times a year around the planet.

    If you truly believe in this stuff and want to lecture put up or shut up. Eat tofu (no meat, it is a huge hydrocarbon generator), grow your own food in your own land using zero fertilizers (derived from oil), walk to and from your destinations, quit your day job and oh, don't have any kids.

    Energy creation accounts for something like 3/4 of CO2 here yet zero nuke reactors (only currently viable form of clean energy creation) have been allowed to open for several decades. So I guess we should just go back to lighting candles to read and put hamsters on treadmills to power our cell phones then. Ready to give yours up?
     
  8. knot4u

    knot4u Repeat Offender

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    You sir, are a dimwit. You post google search results. What is your opinion about anything? No one knows, engage in a conversation with your own words please.
     
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  9. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    To quote you from your Profile Page, "I am not an expert."

    My opinion on 'climate change' reflects the extensive readings on this subject, and others that I post.
     
  10. bucksmith

    bucksmith Did you lock the doors?

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    That's what I get for trying to outsmart a PhD. But...
    If I remember correctly, when Columbus set sail, only the dim witted actually believed the world was flat. He is suggesting that science has proven paleotropic climate change and our ability to alter its course if we all just ride bycicles and live in tents. (Us, not them. http://www.nationalcenter.org/PR-Gore_Home_Energy_080417.html)
    This is absurd, consensus Wouldn't even come close if this was real science and not political social engineering. Yet they keep driving it down our throats till we just start believing it.
    Here's another interesting read about other reasons the seas are rising. http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA678.html
    No consensus here that my jet is making the ocean rise.
    Neil DeGassy is talking down to anyone that doesn't agree with his propaganda and assumes anyone with as much education as he would clearly agree with the "science".
    Here is someone as educated as he is who amuses himself and others by keeping track of all that "consensus". It'd be nice if he got one of his nieces or nephews to build an updated web page, but enjoy a few clicks on this one too.
    http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/number watch.htm
    Here's a great one from the Huggington Post. The best part is the end, when they write a disclaimer that this in not the view of the post...
    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/1418017
    The way I see it, people trying to convince me WE are driving global warming and we can save the planet from catastrophe sound more like the people trying to prevent Columbus from sailing off the edge of the earth.
    For goodness sakes, I wish the left would find a new religion, this one is really getting annoying.
     
  11. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    and that was the one and only head of the true faith in the 'western' world on or about 1492.
     
  12. knot4u

    knot4u Repeat Offender

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    I hope you end up like your avatar.
     
  13. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    remind me never to call upon your EXPERT services ....
     
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  14. knot4u

    knot4u Repeat Offender

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    I'm lucky enough to choose who I work for, and since I seem to be reasonably proficient at my job I'm already booked. The only reminder you might need is that even if I was idle I probably wouldn't help you.
     
  15. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    I only engage proclaimed EXPERTS.
     
  16. knot4u

    knot4u Repeat Offender

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    That's unfortunate.
     
  17. Bear

    Bear Well-Known Member

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    engage proclaimed EXPERTS, then this happens

    PlaneNoseOver.png ;)


     
  18. bucksmith

    bucksmith Did you lock the doors?

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    Would you guys like to be left alone??
    Maybe work some stuff out...
     
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