Envoy Flow Numbers

zVo

Well-Known Member
#1
One of the biggest perks about working for Envoy, or any of the AA wholly-owned carriers, is the flow-through to AA mainline. Short term, the biggest benefit is the guaranteed attrition from flows + additional attrition from anyone more senior getting hired elsewhere. Long term, it's a decent insurance policy to getting to mainline (but who knows what the industry is going to look like in 1, 3, 5+ years?).

After Envoy's protected pilots all flow-through to American in late 2019, early 2020, what does the projected flow through numbers become if American keeps up the hiring pace of 800 to 1,000+ pilots per year? I've heard it drops to about 15 per month for a year and then picks up to about 24 per month based on "the formula." Can anyone expound on the details?
 

Freecos

Well-Known Member
#2
One of the biggest perks about working for Envoy, or any of the AA wholly-owned carriers, is the flow-through to AA mainline. Short term, the biggest benefit is the guaranteed attrition from flows + additional attrition from anyone more senior getting hired elsewhere. Long term, it's a decent insurance policy to getting to mainline (but who knows what the industry is going to look like in 1, 3, 5+ years?).

After Envoy's protected pilots all flow-through to American in late 2019, early 2020, what does the projected flow through numbers become if American keeps up the hiring pace of 800 to 1,000+ pilots per year? I've heard it drops to about 15 per month for a year and then picks up to about 24 per month based on "the formula." Can anyone expound on the details?
Who do you mean by the protected pilots? The 824 still haven’t flowed?
 

BigZ

Well-Known Member
#8
One of the biggest perks about working for Envoy, or any of the AA wholly-owned carriers, is the flow-through to AA mainline. Short term, the biggest benefit is the guaranteed attrition from flows + additional attrition from anyone more senior getting hired elsewhere. Long term, it's a decent insurance policy to getting to mainline (but who knows what the industry is going to look like in 1, 3, 5+ years?).

After Envoy's protected pilots all flow-through to American in late 2019, early 2020, what does the projected flow through numbers become if American keeps up the hiring pace of 800 to 1,000+ pilots per year? I've heard it drops to about 15 per month for a year and then picks up to about 24 per month based on "the formula." Can anyone expound on the details?
There's way too many variables.
Yes, it drops from 29 to 15 about a year from now for the next 150 then back up to 20.
Union numbers say 8.75 yrs for someone hired today.
Company is a good bit more optimistic than that.
My math is in between, leaning towards company numbers. Remind me in the summer of 2023, I'll tell you if I was right or wrong.
 

zVo

Well-Known Member
#9
There's way too many variables.
Yes, it drops from 29 to 15 about a year from now for the next 150 then back up to 20.
Union numbers say 8.75 yrs for someone hired today.
Company is a good bit more optimistic than that.
My math is in between, leaning towards company numbers. Remind me in the summer of 2023, I'll tell you if I was right or wrong.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the union states ~9 years when accounting for the entire seniority list flowing, correct? To your point -- attrition due to people leaving for other flying jobs (legacies, cargo, or LCCs) has to bring that number down a bit. Again, too many variables to account for, but time will tell.
 

BigZ

Well-Known Member
#11
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the union states ~9 years when accounting for the entire seniority list flowing, correct? To your point -- attrition due to people leaving for other flying jobs (legacies, cargo, or LCCs) has to bring that number down a bit. Again, too many variables to account for, but time will tell.
I don't have the interactive seniority list in front of me right now, but it goes through Nov 19(?) Class and was showing somewhere around 8.75 years.
With that said, this year's attrition was 200 people outside of the 340-something flow.
As a newhire you have about 2200 people in the flow line ahead of you.
Average out the existing attrition to 100 a year (200 year one, 0 last year)
1 year to flow pp - 450
1 year to flow dos - 250
In two years 700 people gone, so you are #1500 to flow. At 20/month figure 220 a year plus 100 attrition - 320/year.
1500/340=4.7 years.
4.7 plus 2 from the beginning of the exercise = 6.7 years and let's start arguing about how everyone will be getting hired into legacies after 5 years at a regional soon anyways.
 

BigZ

Well-Known Member
#12
Bad economy, major event, asswad CEO drives the company into BK and you can take those numbers and throw them out the window. Good times now always will lead to wholly crap in this industry. Quite a few of us on here were FOs and CAs at regionals for a long time during the lost decade. I hope those flow numbers stay true but don’t bank on it.
Exactly the reason I did my AS Flying Stuff while here and just applied to keep going for the BS in Aerospace Somethingortheother today...
 
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