Downturn Survival & Planning

drunkenbeagle

Gang Member
(honestly... buying gold is stupid, I've never EVER seen it save a portfolio, save a starving person, and you will NEVER get you money out of it during a crisis)
Buying gold is stupid if you think it will be worth more in the future. Buying gold is smart if you reasonably think everything will be worth less. In particular, dollars.

Governments are going to spend trillions of dollars that they don't have right now. Which will come from somewhere. In the short term, from debt (at increasing interest rates to sell it). And to pay for that debt, taxes. And since those taxes will need to paid from somewhere, the money supply will increase (inflation).
 

USMCmech

Well-Known Member
I’m having a hard time contemplating just how bad inflationary pressures will be. This will be unprecedented in our country. Literally trillions of dollars created out of thin air.
The past three administrations (yes both parties) over the past 20 years have been blatantly ignoring inflationary risks with huge deficit spending during economic boom times.

The ultra low unemployment numbers over the past 4 years should have sent prices climbing but for a variety of reasons they didn't. The de facto minimum wage here in north Texas was 15/hour.

The fed won't be able to keep interest rates this low for long. Hopefully everybody starts getting back to work early next month and ops are normal by summer.
 

SlumTodd_Millionaire

Evil Landlord Capitalist
The past three administrations (yes both parties) over the past 20 years have been blatantly ignoring inflationary risks with huge deficit spending during economic boom times.

The ultra low unemployment numbers over the past 4 years should have sent prices climbing but for a variety of reasons they didn't. The de facto minimum wage here in north Texas was 15/hour.

The fed won't be able to keep interest rates this low for long. Hopefully everybody starts getting back to work early next month and ops are normal by summer.
If you think ops will be normal by summer, you’re nuts. We’ll be extraordinarily lucky if the economy is back to normal by summer 2025.
 

drunkenbeagle

Gang Member
I’m having a hard time contemplating just how bad inflationary pressures will be. This will be unprecedented in our country. Literally trillions of dollars created out of thin air.
Thought experiment, I'm looking ahead here. It won't be created - runaway inflation is not a good idea, and we've mostly been smart enough not to do that in the past. I don't think our banks would allow it. What the government can do is compel investment in US Treasuries, particularly to industries getting substantial government aid. If it gets bad enough, what other steps can be taken to coerce investment into government debt? Compelling 401k plans to invest in it to maintain tax advantaged status? IOUs to other pension funds? You don't want taxes that discourage investment, consumption and employment - so they will be taxes on wealth.

At some point, inflation is inevitable though. Shorter term, I think taxes to finance the spending will be necessary to make a buy side market for all of the debt. There isn't really a market for US Treasury debt now (other than the Fed).

Absent substantial government intervention, all hospitals, physical retailers, restaurants, hotels, and airlines are going to fail. Probably half of manufacturing as well. Even with 3 trillion dollars in aid, most of them will still fail anyway within a year.
 

drunkenbeagle

Gang Member
If you think ops will be normal by summer, you’re nuts. We’ll be extraordinarily lucky if the economy is back to normal by summer 2025.
Was thinking about that today, I thought 3 to 5 years to be where we were last year. My gut says closer to 3 years. 5+ for transportation and hospitality. Even assuming a painful but relatively quick public health recovery for the US and Europe, there will still be an uncontrolled epidemic in most of the developing world. If history is any guide - lacking a cheap vaccine, western governments won't do much to fix that, so a huge drag on travel.

Left out is the medical debt crisis that will be unique to the US after this. Assuming a best case where relatively few people don't make it, there will still be millions of 6 figure hospital bills, with broke hospitals looking to collect on them. Anywhere from 1 to 4 trillion dollars. And bankrupt insurers not paying them. There are state backstops to cover bankrupt health insurers, but these aren't as generous as the FDIC- they are capped at about 100k. And will be pretty meaningless when every insurer goes under at the same time.

Assuming a less good outcome, there will be nearly unlimited legal work suing estates to collect. And either way, Medicare is going to be in really bad shape, really soon.
 

USMCmech

Well-Known Member
If you think ops will be normal by summer, you’re nuts. We’ll be extraordinarily lucky if the economy is back to normal by summer 2025.
Ops were back to normal within a few months of 9/11, and they will be by this summer too. Passenger loads and airline revenue weren't for a few years but that's a different argument.

The blow to the economy will be much more difficult to forecast. On the scary side for now is that no one knows how long this will last. On the plus side this is an external hit to the economy like a natural disaster, not a system wide flaw like the 2008 sub-prime crisis was. Unlike a natural disaster which is localized this is impacting the entire global economy.

Texas schools are closed till April 3rd, and by then I think we will see people going back to work regardless of what the state says.

I'm serious when I say the economic impact of this will kill more people than the virus. Just the added stress of a recession has a measurable effect on the number of heart attacks and strokes. Heck, the sheer volume of take out pizza and fried chicken consumed over the past week will probably kill hundreds.
 

FlapOperator

New Member
ok, let me expand on my earlier comment.

Downturn Survival Planning

First, the down turn, yep, too late to prepare. Sucks to be you. But you can still learn a lesson for next time.

There are really no surprise lessons here.
Save as much as you can and diversify.
Cash is king. Skip the gold until you have a house paid for and a years salary saved up.
Then you can screw around with investments that can crumble for any reason.
(honestly... buying gold is stupid, I've never EVER seen it save a portfolio, save a starving person, and you will NEVER get you money out of it during a crisis)

Yeah, I know many people are struggling and don't get paid crap. No matter what your salary, save save save. This don turn WILL recover (eventually) and there will be ANOTHER recession/depression/natural or unnatural disaster. It's called life... and it is absolutely not fair.

Drive a modest car, drink at home, buy inexpensive yet practical everything.

Save during the boom, spend during the bust. Especially with housing.

There is a million ways to maneuver at any financial class, sure, when you're poor, you have fewer options and many MANY more traps, you're playing on difficult mode.

Money isn't the only resource. Food and water are required. 1-3 months of food that doesn't spoil is a good idea. 50lb bag of rice is pretty cheap. So are dry beans and a pressure cooker. Eat at home, bring your lunch and save save save.

Also, workout a lot... To look good? Screw that. Because health care, (insurance or not) is FREAKING EXPENSIVE.
No point on saving $100k if you're going to blow it on doctors visits because you're sick with chronic cardiovascular disease.
60 minutes of cardio/day minimum. (seriously)
It's also handy during a short term/long term emergency (there movies about this!!!!)

See, it's just long term planning.

Of, you need guns to survive? Going to but 100,000 rounds and be the Last Man On Earth?
I want you to go on a 10 mile hike with 300 rounds of your favorite ammo.
In the real world, you might have to relocate.
So many people have ammo for a 60 day siege but would die of exhaustion after running 100m.

Back to money, Want to save? Don't get married, don't have kids.
Or, in the very least, wail until you have a house paid for and a nice nest egg.
Pushing out a crotch parasite by you or significant other will cost you a MINIMUM of $500k over the next 18-25 years (EACH!!)
Even more if you actually like them.

Not to mention that marriage has a 50% chance on costing you 70-90% of your EVERYTHING, and at least 50% of your future EVERYTHING.
Some poor gullible bastards do this 2-5 times and still don't learn.

When do you plan for the winter? during the previous spring, and act during the summer.
When do you plan for hurricane season? during the previous fall and act during the winter.
When do you plan for the plague/zombies/aliens/revolution/the Apocalypse/Dogs-and-Cats-Living-Together-Mass-Hysteria?!
Months, years, decades ahead of time.

Follow the crowd, follow the panic, and you always pay too much, for too little, buying the wrong things except for the "SUCKER" tattoo on your forehead.

Blame who you want, be prepared, be maneuverable.
You should’ve kept going with this. I’d spend a whole day reading a comment like this
 

nibake

Powder hound
ok, let me expand on my earlier comment.

Downturn Survival Planning

First, the down turn, yep, too late to prepare. Sucks to be you. But you can still learn a lesson for next time.

There are really no surprise lessons here.
Save as much as you can and diversify.
Cash is king. Skip the gold until you have a house paid for and a years salary saved up.
Then you can screw around with investments that can crumble for any reason.
(honestly... buying gold is stupid, I've never EVER seen it save a portfolio, save a starving person, and you will NEVER get you money out of it during a crisis)

Yeah, I know many people are struggling and don't get paid crap. No matter what your salary, save save save. This don turn WILL recover (eventually) and there will be ANOTHER recession/depression/natural or unnatural disaster. It's called life... and it is absolutely not fair.

Drive a modest car, drink at home, buy inexpensive yet practical everything.

Save during the boom, spend during the bust. Especially with housing.

There is a million ways to maneuver at any financial class, sure, when you're poor, you have fewer options and many MANY more traps, you're playing on difficult mode.

Money isn't the only resource. Food and water are required. 1-3 months of food that doesn't spoil is a good idea. 50lb bag of rice is pretty cheap. So are dry beans and a pressure cooker. Eat at home, bring your lunch and save save save.

Also, workout a lot... To look good? Screw that. Because health care, (insurance or not) is FREAKING EXPENSIVE.
No point on saving $100k if you're going to blow it on doctors visits because you're sick with chronic cardiovascular disease.
60 minutes of cardio/day minimum. (seriously)
It's also handy during a short term/long term emergency (there movies about this!!!!)

See, it's just long term planning.

Of, you need guns to survive? Going to but 100,000 rounds and be the Last Man On Earth?
I want you to go on a 10 mile hike with 300 rounds of your favorite ammo.
In the real world, you might have to relocate.
So many people have ammo for a 60 day siege but would die of exhaustion after running 100m.

Back to money, Want to save? Don't get married, don't have kids.
Or, in the very least, wail until you have a house paid for and a nice nest egg.
Pushing out a crotch parasite by you or significant other will cost you a MINIMUM of $500k over the next 18-25 years (EACH!!)
Even more if you actually like them.

Not to mention that marriage has a 50% chance on costing you 70-90% of your EVERYTHING, and at least 50% of your future EVERYTHING.
Some poor gullible bastards do this 2-5 times and still don't learn.

When do you plan for the winter? during the previous spring, and act during the summer.
When do you plan for hurricane season? during the previous fall and act during the winter.
When do you plan for the plague/zombies/aliens/revolution/the Apocalypse/Dogs-and-Cats-Living-Together-Mass-Hysteria?!
Months, years, decades ahead of time.

Follow the crowd, follow the panic, and you always pay too much, for too little, buying the wrong things except for the "SUCKER" tattoo on your forehead.

Blame who you want, be prepared, be maneuverable.
Those "crotch parasites" are what keeps everything else from being pointless.
 

cmac88

Well-Known Member
Hey guys. Wondering if any of you kind folk could please recommend a good expense tracking app that you might use. Features such as...

-One that my wife can have on her phone and also on mine that updates in real time.
-Happy to pay a one off fee for no adds and not an ongoing subscription.
-Enter income.
-Subcategories for different expenses.
-Simple.
-Can use in any country.

Basically I want to find out exactly what my monthly expenditure is to make a plan.

Thanks so much guys.
I've used www.mvelopes.com for awhile.... not the most flashy but fits me and what I wanted and the basic used to be free. Now it's $6/mo or $55/yr.
 

Richman

Well-Known Member
Well, when you stop to think about it, people who don’t want kids breed themselves out of the population...assuming they stay true and barring any “accidents”.
 

CoffeeIcePapers

Well-Hung Member
Just sold my car and did a cash back refi on my house. I figured it was better to just go ahead and get some cash I can take with me when I hit the poor house. I somehow managed to make money on my car, so that's good. Fire sale at my house. As is, we can go exactly 12 months without jobs before we go broke, without touching retirement. I hope it doesn't come to that.

I loved my car. Focus ST with ST3 package. RIP.

My wife works in the corporate office of a large jewelry store chain. She will likely be out of her job faster than me.

Maybe this will be a good thing. It will teach me to appreciate things more and not take things for granted.
 

BEEF SUPREME

Well-Known Member
Just sold my car and did a cash back refi on my house. I figured it was better to just go ahead and get some cash I can take with me when I hit the poor house. I somehow managed to make money on my car, so that's good. Fire sale at my house. As is, we can go exactly 12 months without jobs before we go broke, without touching retirement. I hope it doesn't come to that.

I loved my car. Focus ST with ST3 package. RIP.

My wife works in the corporate office of a large jewelry store chain. She will likely be out of her job faster than me.

Maybe this will be a good thing. It will teach me to appreciate things more and not take things for granted.
Don't worry. I'll share my Garlic Bread with you.
 
Top