I think we are a class or two apart.For perspective AA updated seniority list once a year in July. I’m around 11400 last July. Got a buddy at United that was 11300 last July. So we are very close in seniority numbers (no clue about relative).
In 2025 I’ll be 5470 and he will be 8440
In 2030 I’ll be 2340 and he will be 5200
In 2035 I’ll be 680 and he will be 2720
In 2040 I’ll be 270 and he will be 1300
All numbers for AA and United are in July of those years.
We both end up within 15 numbers of eachother in retirement. Which will mean nothing with single pilot or no pilots
A bit of a tangent, but say someone started training today and got on at a regional in 2021-2022 timeframe. Is the assumed hiring wave going to keep them from having a good QOL when/if they are lucky enough to be eventually picked up by a major?As someone lunatic enough to consider leaving about 54% at the 5th largest carrier at age 34, I can wholeteardly tell you if I had to pick a big 3 on progression, I'd do AA in a heartbeat. In 10 yrs AA retires 8,300 mandatory! DL same 10 yr timeframe is about 6300. Both pilot groups have about 14,000-14,500 pilots total. United is about 12,600 pilots today and retire about 5,200 in 10 yrs. Delta peak retirements happen sooner than United. For Delta it's the first part of the 2020 decade whereas for United it's the latter half. For AA it's just outright crazy retirements all around.
Retirements will continue so there will be movement. Not sure what you mean with having QOL issues but if you start out young in this industry going forward, it looks really good as compared to the lost decade. Standard aviation disclaimers of course, which is barring Acts of God, terrorist attacks, SARS/Ebola/bad virus stuf, etc.A bit of a tangent, but say someone started training today and got on at a regional in 2021-2022 timeframe. Is the assumed hiring wave going to keep them from having a good QOL when/if they are lucky enough to be eventually picked up by a major?