Pilot Hiring Numbers

A really interesting post over on APC regarding an analysis that someone has created using existing fleet, payscale, retirement, and hiring numbers. I make no claims of accuracy but it's interesting reading none the less.....

http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/

Bummer I was hoping to go right seat regional to right seat mainline in 5 years

Bummer, I was hoping to go right seat regional to left seat mars mission in 5 years

This is the one that sums it all up the best.

"An additional Note: Any seat lowering of scope will drastically change these numbers"

I'm just waiting for 2001 a Space Odyssey to become reality so we all truly do have 3 moon landings... on the dark side.

None of this accounts for any additional terrorist attacks, Age 67 (or higher), war with Iran, oil at $150-$200/barrel, another economic recession, etc.

Personally, I wouldn't put too much faith in those charts.

Wow, so even with all the projected legacy/major retirements, less than 10% of the regional pilot force per year will get hired at the majors. Bummer, the impending retirement avalanche was supposed to mean a fast track to (insert dream airline here).

But even more interesting is what this means for hiring at the regionals. According to the data, 600+ mainline pilots are retiring starting next year. It hits 1000+ in 2016. Let's assume that majors will hire the vast majority of their replacements from regional carriers.

Now, somebody tell me what happens when any particular regional is losing, say 100 pilots annually to mainline, but can't lower hiring minimums in orderto replace said pilots. Imagine if HR5900 had been law during the 04-07 hiring boom....
So ladies and gents, this is where I predict the pilot shortage will be - NOT at the highly coveted majors but at the bottom of the pilot supply pool. In fact, Republic Airways is so desperate, they're already paying $5000 if candidates interview successfully and get hired - link

And then there's this great analysis from the National Association of Flight Instructors with regard to pilot supply over the coming years.

Read the rest here: http://www.nafinet.org/whitepaper.aspx

Comments, thoughts?

My concern here is that the airlines look to foreign nationals to cover the flying -or- we have Air Serbia flying between LGA and ORD ten times a day.

I thought the new DL TA is showing a dramatic drop in regional feed in favor of mid size mainline aircraft....so I still don't see there being this "shortage." Not trying to be a jerk.

The people who run airlines are not fools. They will let the pilot supply dry up a bit for the bottom feeding regionals, but nothing that will impact their bottom line. They will then use these airlines as an example as to why congress needs to carve out a section for reduced mins based on some BS additional training they will provide and they will push for a multi crew pilot program to be authorized, thus allowing them to bypass the training market all together and control the supply of workers.

It doesnt benefit them to leave paying customers sitting in the terminal because there isn't a pilot to fly the plane. It does benefit them to have a pilot who makes 30k a year, 15k of which is used to "pay back" the airline for training expenses for the first few years of their employment.

I for one am looking forward to the new Age Till We Die rule.

This has been my thoughts too. Are we going to see a vast majority of the smallest regional airlines go under due to the fact that they will not be able to keep their fleets staffed because of the new regs? Hopes would be that because of these higher minimums and reduced supply of "qualified" pilots, the regionals that survive will have to raise the bar of incentives for the new wave of "qualified" pilots who meet these new standards, for example as we saw the link showing Republic offering a 5k signing bonus. Now that is not a whole lot, but a start?

I was not one of the guys who was fortuanate to go from college/commercial (250 hrs) right to a shiny jet job. I instructed almost 850 hrs, had a mapping job for 2 yrs before I was even considered. Talking with some of the older guys who went to regionals back in the early to mid 90's, something like that was a common career track, with exception some of them had close to 1500 hrs dual give, then on the a 135 for a few years, then on to a regional.

I am far from being a pro on predicting what the industry will do, but I do know the law of supply and demand and I have a feeling things may get ugly before they get better. If some of the smaller Regionals can't keep a steady supply to fly their aircraft because of these new mins, they can't complete as many flights, means they don't get paid.

I left the regional I was with bc of an opportunity to move from the turbo prop to a Citation, no it was not shiny jet syndrome, actually moved into a Baron first. It was for a better pay and QOL, and then was fortuanate to get a type out of it too. I had considered a move back to the regional, but to me it seems like the next 5 years or more at the level is going to get messy.... correct me if I am wrong.

By the way thanks for the articles Dueces!

I agree. You have to look at the trickle-down effects, not just the hiring numbers at a few carriers. The regional carriers will have to consistently hire in large numbers, for a fairly long period of time. No one can say that they won't increase compensation, because it's already started. You mentioned Republic's signing bonus. They won't be the last. If they do it, others will have to compete. So now we have a regional workforce who's costs are growing across the board. These higher costs will have to be reflected in their major airline contracts/code-share agreements in order to survive. Depending on how much, the contracting carrier may very well decide that it's not profitable to contract out flying for 76 seat jets, when they could fly a 717 or Short-Bus at their own company. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible. It seems to be what Delta is positioning themselves for with their new 717's and TA (albiet with debatable scope).

You also have to look at a HUGE number of senior regional captains for whom it is not financially responsible to change jobs, even if it is to UAL/DAL/AA/Whoever. Companies like QX are filled with people like this. In the last AS hiring window, there was a very limited number of QX captains that applied. This cuts the effective 'pool' of regional pilots quite significantly.

I see your point but I do think that it takes so many years to get Congress to do anything, that even if they do succeed, it will be too little, and too late.