An honest, informative discussion on energy/oil

[cfii2007]

Originally Posted by C150J

I'd love to get an educational discussion going on oil, seeing the critical role it plays in our vocation. I'd like to discuss the following:

- Are we running out?

No, we have plenty of oil, the problem is we cannot drill for most of it. Environmental regulations have prevented the US from drilling in Alaska and the California coast for example. The biggest problem is the inability to refine the crude for public consumption.

- Are we relying too heavily on certain sources of crude?

If you are referring to oil from overseas, then yes.

- What needs to be done in the aviation community to conserve? APU usage, tugs, flex climbs?

Slowing down flight will be a good start and possibly reducing frequencies of flights to prevent flying empty aircraft from point A to point B.

- What do you see as the best alternative to Jet A?

There is some sort of algae based fuel being played with right now. I think Virgin Atlantic is also experimenting with some sort of coconut fuel at the moment.


I'll start by posting this paper - http://www.ncpa.org/pub/bg/bg159/. It seems a bit optimistic, and I'd be interested to hear JC's thoughts.

[tonyw]

Originally Posted by planesiscool

only one person here said we will never run out. Yes that is patently untrue and absurd but it isn't absurd to say we won't run out this century.

I think it's perfectly fine to say we won't run out in the 21st century.

Who knows how much we've got left? But the bottom line is we do have a finite supply and if you've got a finite supply of something, it's best to not squander it.

And developing new sources of energy would go a long way to stretching that supply out.

Wolfy, I like option 1 the best. Option 2 is happening right now. Gas at $4 a gallon goes a long way to reducing people's consumption!

[wheelsup]

ExxonMobile has stopped exploring for oil that requires extensive capital investment. Instead they have stepped up dividends and stock buybacks. They are doing this because they forecast a price point of $30-$50 per bbl in the long term. They've effectively "bet the company" on it.

[...source...]

I've actually been investigating CNG cars. Retro kits are around $3000-$4000 depending on the size of the car and installation. The problem with it, is A) UT has the cheapest CNG and most stations available, Cali for example is $2.50/gal vs. UT's pennies and B) if the prices of CNG goes up, that wipes out your savings. I'd still prefer some sort of diesel car burning biodiesel.

[Bog]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

I'd still prefer some sort of diesel car burning biodiesel.

I'd love a diesel car (whenever I can find a buyer for my F150). Too bad they're hard to find at an affordable price. Unless you want a $30,000+ pickup truck, you have your choice of Mercedes $$, Mercedes $$, BMW $$, and VW Toureg $$.

I hear than VW, Honda, and Toyota are all to have affordable diesel cars in the states within a year or three. It's about friggin time. Now if we can get an affordable diesel pickup ... preferably a midsize / small truck.

[jtrain609]

Originally Posted by Piperflyer

I just got a CNG car and sold my gasoline car. I pay 64 cents per gallon and just filled it for 3.15. I think natural gas is great for an alternative

What kinda CNG car did you grab? I'm kinda curious about these things. Plus I live right down the road from you and there are a few places to fill up in Park City, which would make life super easier.

[planesiscool]

Originally Posted by Bog

I'd love a diesel car (whenever I can find a buyer for my F150). Too bad they're hard to find at an affordable price. Unless you want a $30,000+ pickup truck, you have your choice of Mercedes $$, Mercedes $$, BMW $$, and VW Toureg $$.

I hear than VW, Honda, and Toyota are all to have affordable diesel cars in the states within a year or three. It's about friggin time. Now if we can get an affordable diesel pickup ... preferably a midsize / small truck.

VW has the turbo diesel jetta and they are coming out with the jetta sportwagen...both get 50-55 mpg on the high way. I'm thinking about picking one up when they come out

[Rocketman99]

You guys wanting diesel cars must not be anywhere near NYC. On average, diesel costs .50 to .75 more per gallon than premium does around here. It's been that way for at least a couple of years. I guess diesel must be cheaper in other parts of the country.

[Bog]

Originally Posted by planesiscool

VW has the turbo diesel jetta and they are coming out with the jetta sportwagen...both get 50-55 mpg on the high way. I'm thinking about picking one up when they come out

I checked the website but couldn't seem to find it. Maybe I should look a lil harder.

Diesel may be $.50 more expensive per gallon, but you're getting up to DOUBLE the mileage.

25mpg of $3.50 unleaded is more money than 55mpg of $4.00 diesel. In 1000 miles, you're talking about $140 unleaded vs $73!

[Piperflyer]

I got myself a Chevy Cavalier.
I'm pretty sure that I read somewhere that the .64 is a fixed price statewide and it changes only once every year.

[jtrain609]

Word Holmes.

Hey we're gonna have to have an SLC meet and greet here sometime soon, you'll have to get up on the get down with that one.

[planesiscool]

go to the search and type in sportwagen

[wheelsup]

Originally Posted by Bog

I checked the website but couldn't seem to find it. Maybe I should look a lil harder.

VW had to take their diesels off the US market due to the new emissions standards. They are said to be introducing new diesels for model year 2009.

[granlistillo]

Originally Posted by tonyw

I don't know how anyone can claim they're having an honest and informative discussion on oil if they don't accept the premise that there is a finite amount of oil.

There is not an infinite supply of oil like some people have suggested here. There's not an infinite supply of ANYTHING!

Your logic is faulty in this case.
Making the assertion "we will never run out of oil" , is not the same as suggestion it is infinite.

First of all the question when will we "run out of oil", is nonsense. NOBODY from any perspective, oil companies or even the most ardent green with have a lick of sense talks about "running out of oil".
With current tech, depending on the field oil is economically recoverable in the 30-40% range. There will be a lot left in the ground, when the real question occurs.
When do we run out of cheap oil? OR At what price point do we switch to other sources?

Their are plenty of other sources and processes, renewable and nonrenewable available. THE PROBLEM IS INFRASTRUCTURE! Supposably oil shale, tar sands and coal liquidfication are viable at the $55-75 levels.
But where oh where is the infrastructure for that??
Bottom line, fuel will be expensives for the aviation industry unless the global demand subsides, or we make the transition to different infrastructure.

One more thing Tony, for the record petroleum can be manufactured from biomass, relatively cheaply. Just like man can now make diamonds...

[granlistillo]

Originally Posted by planesiscool

only one person here said we will never run out. Yes that is patently untrue and absurd but it isn't absurd to say we won't run out this century.

planeiscool,

Do you really think that there will be a auction for the "last barrel" of oil on earth.Call it patently untrue and absurd when you see that. We will either replace oil or suffer tremendous geopolitical consequences long before that.

[Flyin_bryan]

Exerpt from a paper I just wrote


.........Enter May 2008. Already four airlines have gone bankrupt in the prior month of April: Eos Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Skybus Airlines and ATA. Hundreds of flight crews and employees have been laid off. The results are just down the road; take a drive through Sky Harbor. What do airports do when bankrupt airlines leave aircraft sitting at terminals? They tow the airplanes to the edge of the Airport and leave them. The massive line of aircraft is located on the north side of Sky Harbor Blvd on the west end of the airport, and no these aircraft not waiting to takeoff, they are parked.


Just one example of how the state of air travel in the United States has perhaps never been worse; and this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are several fundamental changes occurring within the industry. The largest however, is the dramatic rise in fuel costs, which now make the single largest expense of an airline. The Vancouver Sun’s recent article “Fuel issues will ground the airline industry” is not as far flung as one might imagine. Writers Anthony Perl and Richard Gilbert feel “this is not a hypothetical doomsday scenario cooked up by environmental activists, but a quickly emerging reality as world oil production plateaus and then goes into permanent decline” (Anthony and Gilbert).


In fact, there is growing evidence that air industry leaders recognize the industry cannot continue down its current path of skyrocketing fuel prices. Fuel prices must eventually be passed along to the consumer. Just as airlines grew out of cheap prices for tickets, a sharp increase in ticket price will slash demand for air travel. The newspaper USA Today agrees with this position stating that “with today's unprecedented jet fuel prices... only extreme fare increases and dramatic cutbacks in flights will enable the industry to cover a 2008 jet fuel bill [that] …will be 44% higher than last year's” (Mutsabaugh). The Vancouver Sun article points out that in 2004, the then-CEO of Continental Airlines, Gordon Bethune, stated that "This industry doesn't work at $38-a-barrel oil." Last week, the chief financial officer of American Airlines Tom Horton said "there really is no playbook now for $110 barrel oil." (Anthony and Gilbert). A Houston Chronicle headline sums up fuel prices this week with “Sector snap: Airline stocks drop as oil hits $120 a barrel” (The Associated Press).


Moreover, the past two weeks have been particularly shaky for the airline industry and airline stocks. During the first quarter of 2008, deficits at the eight largest U.S. carriers will total $1.4 billion, yes BILLION (Schlangenstein). United Airlines lost nearly a third of the total, about $537 million dollars. There’s no doubt that these airlines are scrambling, they will likely go bankrupt before the end of the year if they do not change big time. Many are trying everything from mergers (Delta-NWA, United-US Airways) to new alliances (American, British Airways and Continental) to stay afloat (Mutsabaugh). Phoenix based Southwest Airlines was the only airline to actually make money this quarter; it predicted soaring fuel prices and bought tremendous amounts of fuel at 2006 prices, an industry tool known as fuel hedging.


Headlines from Reuters read “Airlines face worst crisis since 2001”, a point in time when airlines were forced to remain grounded and the demand for air travel vanished overnight. The Routers article details “the latest signals from credit markets show[ing] default and bankruptcy risk is rising [among airlines], even after four main carriers United Airlines, US Airways, Delta Air Lines Inc, and Northwest Airlines Corp, retooled themselves under Chapter 11 filings [earlier] this decade (Siew).

Rising fuel prices are not the only problem airlines are coping with. The current economic slowdown is brewing the airline industry’s perfect storm. Consumer discretionary spending is down. “People are cutting back their expenses” cites the Boston Globe in a recent article about the construction of a new high end mall (Abelson).


In addition, an airline maintenance crackdown by the Federal Aviation Administration has been revealing aircraft maintenance oversights by numerous airlines. In April, American Airlines grounded its entire fleet of MD-80 aircraft and cancelled more than 3,000 flights leaving travels stranded and frustrated. Airlines are shooting themselves in the foot. Who wants to fly on airplanes that are not being properly maintained?

There is no question that times are tough for the airline industry, with tougher times ahead. Rising costs of fuel, an economic slowdown, and maintenance problems are causing a meltdown. Planning a career in such a volatile industry under its current circumstances doesn’t appear to be a wise choice. The New York Times reports the number of student pilots is down by about a third since 1990, from 129,000 to 88,000. The number of private pilots is down from 299,000 to 236,000… And they are aging” (Wald).

[tonyw]

Originally Posted by granlistillo

First of all the question when will we "run out of oil", is nonsense. NOBODY from any perspective, oil companies or even the most ardent green with have a lick of sense talks about "running out of oil".

You know, you lose a lot of credibility when you say something like that and you've got so many organizations saying something completely different.

Not even the most ardent green says we'll run out of oil?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...andpetrol.news

I don't know if a guy who worked for BP, ChevronTexaco and Exxon qualifies as an "ardent green" but he says that while we don't have to worry about it for a long time, we WILL run out of it.

We won't run out tomorrow, or next year, or next decade, or maybe even the next century. But sooner or later, there will be no more oil. It is a finite resource and it is being depleted.

[wheelsup]

I would think it would be pretty tough to run out of oil. Somewhere, at some depth, there will be oil hidden. Also it's continually made thru decomposition.

[Wolfy]

But it's made very slooooowly.

[tonyw]

Originally Posted by Wolfy

But it's made very slooooowly.

Exactly. It takes millions of years to make it, and it takes virtually no time for us to burn the end product.

If you know you've got a finite resource, it only makes sense to stretch it out as much as you can.

That will buy us time to develop 21st century energy sources instead of using something that was first used in the 19th century.

[granlistillo]

Originally Posted by tonyw

You know, you lose a lot of credibility when you say something like that and you've got so many organizations saying something completely different.

Not even the most ardent green says we'll run out of oil?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...andpetrol.news

I don't know if a guy who worked for BP, ChevronTexaco and Exxon qualifies as an "ardent green" but he says that while we don't have to worry about it for a long time, we WILL run out of it.

We won't run out tomorrow, or next year, or next decade, or maybe even the next century. But sooner or later, there will be no more oil. It is a finite resource and it is being depleted.

Tony,
I got 2 jobs, one I own an import export firm, 2nd I am an airline pilot. Both of these depend on cheap fuel, so I guess I am bothered by $129 oil.

Even still, both of these industries are reaping the benefits from cheap oil that hovered around $12-15 throughout most of the 90s. However, GLOBAL DEMAND (china, india etc) is starting to outstrip the supply. When production peaks, we will be faced with higher and higher fuel costs until demands drops (recession or depression). The world economy will not just accept these consequences and keep using oil until every drop is gone. It will be have to be replaced. In other words, the point is NOT WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OIL (no need to argue a point some can not grasp), But rather WHEN WILL OIL NOT RUN OUR ECONOMY.
So if that is what you mean by running out of OIL, then I would say yes it could happen very soon.
Now for the airline industry the best thing would be for a change of infrastructure globally. Plug in hybrids and bio fuels for cars would allow for other sources of energy to share the load.
As far as jet fuel goes, there is always man made oil (biomass into crude oil via thermal depolymerization), Fischer Tropsch process fuel (ersatz jetfuel that ran nazi jets right up to VE day.) BIOdiesel blends and other possibilities that can help alleviate the crisis.

The problem is a lack of infrastucture, and until that is fixed, look for a roller coaster ride in the airlines. And as for hedging? If all tee price pressures are upward, who will underwrite a hedge at any reasonable price? Hopefully the next president will get serious about Energy policy, or we will have tough tough times.

PS Oil is now be manufactured (limited infrastructure)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

[Flyin_bryan]

Originally Posted by granlistillo

Hopefully the next president will get serious about Energy policy, or we will have tough tough times.

this brings up a good point. What have the front-runners said about their energy policy? I havent heard anything.....

[trafficinsight]

Originally Posted by Flyin_bryan

this brings up a good point. What have the front-runners said about their energy policy? I havent heard anything.....

The answer to your question is no, they don't agree that flag burning is protected free speech.

[Flyin_bryan]

Originally Posted by trafficinsight

The answer to your question is no, they don't agree that flag burning is protected free speech.

soon to be "leader of the free world"....

[planesiscool]

Originally Posted by granlistillo

planeiscool,

Do you really think that there will be a auction for the "last barrel" of oil on earth.Call it patently untrue and absurd when you see that. We will either replace oil or suffer tremendous geopolitical consequences long before that.

oh relax. Oil is finite and it is possible to run out,however u did not clarify your position. Now you have so I can withdraw that comment. I think we will switch to hydrogen or slowly start switching once an economical way to extract it from water is found. It is already being worked on.