NW + DL Merger Mania Update... A little birdy tells me

[Doug Taylor]

I'd better call the crew hotel and tell them that they shouldn't be laying over in LOS tonight!

[Tram]

Man, I really hope DL and NW don't merge..

I wish I woulda been a dentist or a doctor.. I am seriously rethinking my decisions.. Maybe I should try and get back into dental school......

[WalterSobchak]

Originally Posted by Tram

Man, I really hope DL and NW don't merge..

I wish I woulda been a dentist or a doctor.. I am seriously rethinking my decisions.. Maybe I should try and get back into dental school......

You and me both!!!! Yuk, drilling.........I'll still take flying.

[Cav]

Doug's been peddling the DAL/Alaska deal for a while now. I'm starting to think he might be right after all! Perhaps Doug should become an "airline analyst." We'll sit him right between Boyd and Bethune on MSNBC.

[Kristie]

wouldn't that be interesting...

[Doug Taylor]

I've actually got far too much experience to be an airline analyst.

Seriously, check out the bios of some of them and filter-out the resume "padding".

[DZERO]

Originally Posted by Tram

Man, I really hope DL and NW don't merge..

I wish I woulda been a dentist or a doctor.. I am seriously rethinking my decisions.. Maybe I should try and get back into dental school......

Or maybe TRUCKMASTER. http://www.truckmastercdl.com/us.html

[MDPilot]

Delta Says Merger Principles
With Northwest Haven't Been Met
By PAULO PRADA
February 26, 2008 4:44 p.m.
In a sign of growing trouble for a proposed merger deal with Northwest Airlines Corp., top executives of Delta Air Lines Inc. Tuesday afternoon issued an internal memo saying that no "potential transaction meets all our principles."

Summarizing the airline's priorities in any merger, including seniority protection for all its employees and keeping the airline headquartered in Atlanta, the memo said the airline will continue to focus on its "stand-alone plan" until all "these conditions are met."

Signed by Richard Anderson, Delta's chief executive, and Ed Bastian, the airline's president and chief financial officer, the memo follows a recent impasse in discussions between Delta pilots and their counterparts at Northwest. Despite progress in merger talks among the two airlines' executives and financial advisers, people familiar with the situation say leaders of the pilots groups have been unable to find common ground on an agreement that would establish a common seniority list for the pilots of a combined airline.

Without that agreement, those people said, the airlines are reluctant to merge because executives are wary of protracted labor disputes and contract negotiations that have troubled mergers in the airline industry in the past.

Write to Paulo Prada at paulo.prada@wsj.com

[Doug Taylor]

And if you see it twitch, shoot it again.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by mtsu_av8er

Man, not that I've gotten "ready" and raised my blood pressure, I'm going to have to start worrying about a new merger all over again!!

Life would be so much better if I didn't worry about things that I can't change . . .

Lloyd, I kept telling the guys in MEM that, but they just won't listen. Too many guys are getting spun up about the possibility of MEM closing. When I ask them what they'll do if it closes, they don't know. Then I ask what they can do to STOP it from closing. Dead silence. Point still doesn't get across.

[wheelsup]

Here's a good one...Southwest and US Airways:

Analysts believe the next possible combination could involve United Airlines owner UAL Corp., the nation's fourth largest, and No. 6 Continental Airlines Inc. Southwest Airlines Co. reportedly is considering a merger with US Airways Group Inc., leaving only AMR Corp.'s American Airlines without a major merger partner.

[...source...]

Sounds to me like someone owns some SWA and LCC stock . Honestly I couldn't even make this stuff up if I tried.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

Here's a good one...Southwest and US Airways:



Sounds to me like someone owns some SWA and LCC stock . Honestly I couldn't even make this stuff up if I tried.

Oh man. That's the best one I've heard yet. We're gonna take an airline that historically prides itself on low overhead and good labor relations and say they're gonna try to merge with one that has high overhead and some of the worst labor relations. They coulda said "We saw Bigfoot and Wal-Mart" and been more believable.


Note: if/when this happens, I'm gonna look totally idiotic, aren't I?

[ElyJs]

I am just learning about the way all of this working, but I was an econ major. It seems to be this all should have happened about 5 years ago. The government bailing all of these airlines was not the right thing to do. I guess the idea was protect the consumer and economy by subsidizing the airlines. The airlines are NOT a government operation and should not be treated as such. The american consumer should bear the ups and downs just as we the labor does.

I am not sure what these mergers will do in terms of pilot hiring and such, but it will create an incredibly powerful labor union if they can learn to work together. Right now these labor unions are fighting each other and it seems like the pilots aren't so keen on the idea. In 5 years it seems the collective bargaining power would be a lot more powerful. If pilots would stop thinking about what their seniority number will be next month or even in the next year or two it seems like they would be able to get a lot further. I don't know much about the airline industry except what I read here in the news, does my logic follow?

Would these pilots ever fall under the same contract? How often are contracts negotiated? I guess if they would always be under separate contracts then it would be the the suck. Thanks for the advice, I am trying to learn as much as I can before I really don't have a choice.

-Jason
www.flyboulder.com

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

Here's a good one...Southwest and US Airways:

Not going to happen.

Sounds to me like someone owns some SWA and LCC stock .

Bingo!

[Capt. Caucasian]

Originally Posted by ElyJs

The government bailing all of these airlines was not the right thing to do.

The government did NOT bail out the airlines. First, all the feds needed to do after 9-11 was lower the taxes on tickets. You know half the price of a ticket goes to the government. The reason this did not happen was because the current administration wanted labor to bear the brunt and take concessions as a prerequisite for the "bailout".

The airlines are NOT a government operation and should not be treated as such.

Airlines are "unregulated" but expected to operate as a public utility. The world we live in.

The american consumer should bear the ups and downs just as we the labor does.

Agreed

I am not sure what these mergers will do in terms of pilot hiring and such, but it will create an incredibly powerful labor union if they can learn to work together. Right now these labor unions are fighting each other and it seems like the pilots aren't so keen on the idea. In 5 years it seems the collective bargaining power would be a lot more powerful. If pilots would stop thinking about what their seniority number will be next month or even in the next year or two it seems like they would be able to get a lot further. I don't know much about the airline industry except what I read here in the news, does my logic follow?

Seniority is life. Everything in our career depends on it. No matter how big the airline is, whoever is in the White House ultimately dictates how we negotiate. If we are not allowed to exercise our leverage then size is moot.

[Tram]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

When I ask them what they'll do if it closes, they don't know. Then I ask what they can do to STOP it from closing. Dead silence. Point still doesn't get across.

Huh?*

[Velocipede]

Originally Posted by Capt. Caucasian

Seniority is life. Everything in our career depends on it. No matter how big the airline is, whoever is in the White House ultimately dictates how we negotiate. If we are not allowed to exercise our leverage then size is moot.

Well said.

[kellwolf]

In 5 years it seems the collective bargaining power would be a lot more powerful. If pilots would stop thinking about what their seniority number will be next month or even in the next year or two it seems like they would be able to get a lot further. I don't know much about the airline industry except what I read here in the news, does my logic follow?

The problem lies with the legislation the airlines operate under. If operated under some of the similar rules as, say, UAW, we actually COULD bring management to their knees....or strike an airline out of existence. The way the law is written and applied under the current government gives ALL the power to management. This effectively hampers the unions. In the last 7 years, unions have had next to NO power thanks to an administration that isn't very friendly when it comes to work stopages and bankruptcy judges giving management everything they want thanks to a catchy, if flawed, flow chart presented in court.

As for seniority, you can't really expect someone that's been flying for 10-20 years to suddenly say "Well, sure. I'll go back to flying narrowbody domestic for the good of the industry." There comes a time when you have to say "What's in it for me?" Is it better for the industry that Pinnacle and Colgan merge to avoid a whipsaw? Definately. Am I gonna give up my upgrade coming in a few months? Hell no. That's why worrying about your seniority number is important. It dictates what your schedule is, how many days off you get, if you can hold your base and when/if you become a CA. In a merger situation, it's quite probable that a few newly upgraded CAs might be sent back to the right seat. Not so good if you just bought a new house based on what you would have been making pre-merger.

Most of the time, if your knowledge of the airline industry comes from the news, it's probably flawed knowledge. A few of the guys on TV know what they're talking about, but a majority seem to be someone on staff with a PPL that was tagged with an "aviation analyst" tag.

Originally Posted by Tram

Huh?*

Translation: We've got a lot of guys in MEM that just like to b*tch to hear themselves. They'll rant and rave about MEM closing, but in the grand scheme of things there's nothing any of us can do about it. So, there's no reason to have a stroke over it. It's either gonna happen or it's not.

[Tram]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Translation: We've got a lot of guys in MEM that just like to b*tch to hear themselves. They'll rant and rave about MEM closing, but in the grand scheme of things there's nothing any of us can do about it. So, there's no reason to have a stroke over it. It's either gonna happen or it's not.

I said huh?*... Not huh?

[ElyJs]

Thanks for the replies...I am interested in learning more about the unions and how legislature effects their bargaining power. Does anyone have any links to any primary sources?

Collective bargaining and unions really depend upon the group thinking as a whole. To be effective unions need to look at things with a more socialist point of view. We as Americans, myself included think about ourselves first. This is the way we were raised. Our democratic country was founded on individualism and democracy.

Thank god for unions otherwise the airlines would pay the pilots the minimum amount that would attract just enough pilots to fly the exact number of airplanes they fly. I really need to pull up a few of the graphs to help explain this visually to the people who fly a 90+ passenger airplanes for pennies. They of course are going to pay just enough to get warm bodies in the seats. This is what the economic model tells them to do. Of course with a few adjustments thrown in factoring how many planes would crash because of incompetence. People can bitch and moan all they want but a for-profit company is not going to operate any other way. It would be inefficient.

I see your point of size and bargaining power being a moot point if legislature give management all of the power. I just think it would be cynical to think that there is nothing we can do as pilots to change they way things work. Without at least a few people that feel they can make a difference then the above scenario will come true and international captains will be making 50 large a year. I don't want to enter an industry where everyone is hopeless.

I am learning quickly and again I appreciate all the replies, I am a CFI that has not yet entered the 121 world, but it will be soon I hope.

From a few other industries we studied in school (cruise ships for example), do you think that if there were ever enough foreign pilots qualified that our jobs would be completely outsourced? I mean if there were legions of trained foreigners willing to work for half the pay are we all out of jobs? Obviously right now training in the US is the cheapest, but in 15-20 years that could change. Maybe a little far fetched, because the airline industry is special and unique in a lot of ways but if you looked at straight spreadsheets this is probably what would happen. Unfortunately management makes decisions using spreadsheets almost exclusively.

[Capt. Caucasian]

ElyJs,

Good for you trying to educate yourself about the industry that you are entering. You will quickly learn that although you have an economics degree not much about labor relations follows the traditional model. For example: supply and demand. There is a shortage of pilots but, wages have been going down (both actual wages and those adjusted for inflation). Figure that one out.

These forums in general are mostly good places to learn but with one huge caveat: people's personalities get in the way . Unfortunately, there are no unbiased histories of airlines and labor. But, ALPA's 'Flying the Line Vol I and Vol II' are good places to start. You will get these books if you get hired by an ALPA carrier. If you want them sooner, contact ALPA. In fact, there is a new website made specifically for folks wanting to know more about a pilot's life. It is www.clearedtodream.org

The website probably doesn't go in to the detail you would like but, give ALPA a call and see if they would send you stuff on the RLA (railway labor act), Section 6 negotiations, ALPA PAC, ALPA merger policy, and anything else they care to part with.

[ElyJs]

I do not believe that the airline industry deviates from the economic model at all. There is no shortage of pilots. How many people on this board with 400 hours are just trying to figure out which airline will higher them with the low time. First question you always see when somebody posts hired in the announcement section is "What were you times?" Also from what I hear every major has way more applications then position available.

HAHAHA Pilot Shortage! Only when every airline has a 250 hour fo and a 1500 hour captain will there be a shortage and only then because of government regulation (FAA). Granted a few adjustments need to be made for smoking holes, but there haven't been too many. Last pilot shortage I heard of was when the majors were hiring college graduates with 0 time and training them up. My DE for my PPL went from 0 time to commercial pilot in about a month, then moved into his airline job.



Believe me we are working down to W(1) until every commercial pilot seeking employment with an airline is hired or a union artificially increases the wage.

But I am def here to listen. I am trying to learn as much as I can. I do need to read Flying the Line books soon.

-Jason
www.flyboulder.com

[Capt. Caucasian]

Actually, I would argue that wages are artificially low. In the mid '80s a narrow body captain made about 150k. That wage adjusted for COLA would be around 250k today.

Airlines will always pay the absolute lowest they possibly can. Even if it means crying poor even though the managers give themselves bonuses.

Too many external forces (management tactics, RLA, NMB, DOJ, DOL, Congress, White House, ATA, ALPA, APA, SWAPA, NPA, IPA, FAA, NTSB, JAA, IFALPA, RAA and so on and so on...) control our fates. The theories of classic economics just don't work here. BTW, I have a degree in finance with a minor in accounting. Nothing that I learned in school seems to apply either.

[ElyJs]

Does a domestic narrowbody take any more skill to fly than a RJ? The only reason that 737 pilot makes more is because of scope clauses negotiated by unions, at least the way I see it. This I will debate with you. Why does that 737 pilot make more? These are the answers I am searching for.

The laws of economics do apply. You cannot escape them. They are fact. I will debate many things and am here to see and hear other viewpoints. I will not debate whether or not the laws of economics apply.

-Jason

[PCL_128]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

We've got a lot of guys in MEM that just like to b*tch to hear themselves

But I thought Joe H. bid ATL?