What is the Cause?

[majorityof1]

I went to to archive.org and pulled up the PSA hiring page from the past few years. (PSA was only chosen because it was the easiest to get more hits on archive.org)

I can see the effect is lowerd mins (and whatever 'quality' statement you want to put on that) but my question is "What is the cause?" Retirement age? Pay? QOL?

The intention of this post is to genuinely discuss the why this is happening, and not flame low timers, company with low times, etc... I posted this because I came into aviation from the military when the minimums were already low. I am wondering why they are low.


**All of these are the minimum times, the competitive times were always much higher
January 2008
To be considered, candidates must meet the following minimum qualifications:
Commercial, Instrument and Multi-engine rating
First Class Medical
FCC License
Valid Passport

July 2007
Minimum Qualifications
1000 TT, 250 ME, 1st class medical
November 2006
*Taken from Airlinepilotcentral from 2007 in archive.org; couldn’t pull up psa website

November 2006
Minimum Qualifications
Total Time: 1200 hours
Multi-Engine Time: 250 hours
First Class Medical
FCC Licensed
Valid Passport


June 2006
Minimum Qualifications
Total Time: 1500 hours
Multi-Engine Time: 250 hours
121 or 135 Experience
ATP MEL
College Degree Preferred

June 2005
Minimum Qualifications
Total Time: 1500 hours
Multi-Engine Time: 250 hours
121 or 135 Experience
ATP MEL
College Degree Preferred

July 2004
Minimum Qualifications
Total Time: 1500 hours
Multi-Engine Time: 250 hours
121 or 135 Experience
ATP MEL
College Degree Preferred


March 2003:
Minimum Qualifications
Total Time: 1500 hours
Multi-Engine Time: 250 hours
Actual Instrument: 100 hours preferred

[nosehair]

Supply and demand.

[surreal1221]

The industry was in the can, still is honestly, then. . .companies were not expanding (some still are not). Without expansion, there is a need to have only a very specific amount of crews to fly. With that being said, it's easy.

Demand was low. Supply was high (furloughed major guys).

Now

Demand is High (due to expansion from top [majors] down [regionals]*. Supply is low (low supply of the 1500/250/100 types).

That being said, companies are doing things to attract candidates that will not hurt the bottom line. Lowering the requirements does just that. While I won't be surprised if some say that the increased wash-out rate (anyone have HARD numbers of such?) could cause a company to spend more on a candidate than they did in the past, but realistically it's a mute point. These companies would rather spend more on a candidate in additional training costs, than increase benefits and pay.


*Majors expanding their international and even some domestic route structures. New aircraft orders, new equipment on property at a number of majors and large cargo operators. This lends itself to needing to hire experience pilots with PIC Turbine time. Where do these pilots come from? Military, civilian - my emphasis is that these guys were one time Regional Captains that are now moving on due to marginal expansion of the industry. That, yields itself to the fact that someone then has to come in and fell their seats (Regional FO's upgrading). This, then continues and requires someone to come in and fill their seats (CFIs, and then the scum - RJ Transition individuals).

[majorityof1]

Why are the majors expanding? What is happening now (past year) that wasnt happening before? I understand that if the majors expand it sucks everyone up the line a little.

Originally Posted by surreal1221

The industry was in the can, still is honestly, then. . .companies were not expanding (some still are not). Without expansion, there is a need to have only a very specific amount of crews to fly. With that being said, it's easy.

Demand was low. Supply was high (furloughed major guys).

Now

Demand is High (due to expansion from top [majors] down [regionals]*. Supply is low (low supply of the 1500/250/100 types).

That being said, companies are doing things to attract candidates that will not hurt the bottom line. Lowering the requirements does just that. While I won't be surprised if some say that the increased wash-out rate (anyone have HARD numbers of such?) could cause a company to spend more on a candidate than they did in the past, but realistically it's a mute point. These companies would rather spend more on a candidate in additional training costs, than increase benefits and pay.


*Majors expanding their international and even some domestic route structures. New aircraft orders, new equipment on property at a number of majors and large cargo operators. This lends itself to needing to hire experience pilots with PIC Turbine time. Where do these pilots come from? Military, civilian - my emphasis is that these guys were one time Regional Captains that are now moving on due to marginal expansion of the industry. That, yields itself to the fact that someone then has to come in and fell their seats (Regional FO's upgrading). This, then continues and requires someone to come in and fill their seats (CFIs, and then the scum - RJ Transition individuals).

[surreal1221]

They are expanding because they are not in bankruptcy.

While it may not be GREAT expansion, it is something that is better than bankruptcy.

The cycle continues.