Future of Airline Industry

[c172captain]

Hi all, I am 17 and takin my IFR checkride this monday, I had planned on continuing my flying up until I got into a major airliner. Before I commit anymore of my time and money however, I would like to know what can be expected for the future pilots in the airline industry. It wasn't up until about 6 months ago that I really started hearing negative talk about the industry that got me really concerned. Any and all help would be appreciated.

Thanks

[E6BAV8R]

Someone really needs to make a sticky...

[c172captain]

yeah sorry if i'm beating a dead horse but only just really came to this forum and this was the first thing that i wanted to ask

[cencal83406]

I like your screen name.

[OldTownPilot]

Who F'n knows? Yesterday its freaking awesome, Today it's what the hell did I get myself into.

[troopernflight]

It's good that you are 17 and are mature enough to think that far into your future career. Don't worry so much about it. The industry is going to do what it is going to do, and there is nothing you can do to control it. If you want to fly, then you should keep persuing your dream. If you want a safety net, then go ahead and get your bachelor's degree in something other than aviation. If the industry takes a bad turn after you are flying professionally, then resort to your degree and find a ground job until things recover. Don't let the negatives of flying prevent you from doing what you love.

[mastermags]

Originally Posted by troopernflight

If you want a safety net, then go ahead and get your bachelor's degree in something other than aviation.

Actually, you should go ahead and do this regardless.

[MQAAord]

There is no security or stability in this industry.

Every decision you make is a crapshoot and may end up being the best thing you ever did or the worst. Your decision to leave your regional carrier to go to a major may result in a furlough within 6 months, a chapter 7 TU that leaves you jobless at age 55, or it may see you through to retirement from a healthy, long, uneventful career.

You never know...........

Enjoy the ride, make the best decisions you can based on the information you have available at the time, never second-guess yourself, make the best of everything that's thrown at you, and you'll have a great time.


It is helpful to have a second-interest career, be it real estate, financial planning, carpentry, whatever floats your boat. Something else you enjoy doing that could become a career if you lose your medical or have some other catastrophic event happen that leaves you furloughed.

[ctab5060X]

Originally Posted by mastermags

Actually, you should go ahead and do this regardless.

Agreed. It is always good to have a 'Plan B', regardless if you are in aviation or not. If for some reason the industry takes a major downturn, you will not be left 'high and dry' with no degree and have to resort to flipping burgers for a living. Furthermore, if your plans are to fly for a major, you need the degree anyway.

Originally Posted by troopernflight

Don't let the negatives of flying prevent you from doing what you love.

Absolutely! Don't get so focused on the destination that you don't enjoy the journey there. It's great you have a goal set, but you have a long way to go before you fly for a major and a lot of flying between here and there. Enjoy all of it...if you truly love flying, then you will never have 'just a job'.

[Doug Taylor]

Ebb and flow. Develop a good "Plan B", get a good degree in a viable field then follow your heart wherever it takes you. Things are actually fairly good in aviation. Pay's not the best, but it's good and not bad... at least not yet.

When I got out of college, there were (oh man, I just told the Mrs I was getting off the computer so I gotta make it quick) Eastern and Pan Am pilots having knife fights in the parking lot fighting over $10/hr CFI jobs. Unless you had 3000 hours, you didn't have a chance, even with a right seat Chieftain job flying rubber dog dookie.

It's not bad now, trust me. It can get A LOT worse, and will for a period of time, and then we'll enjoy a bright renaissance again. Rinse and repeat.

Ebb and flow maing, ebb and flow.

[imasaluki]

Originally Posted by Doug Taylor

Ebb and flow. Develop a good "Plan B", get a good degree in a viable field then follow your heart wherever it takes you. Things are actually fairly good in aviation. Pay's not the best, but it's good and not bad... at least not yet.

When I got out of college, there were (oh man, I just told the Mrs I was getting off the computer so I gotta make it quick) Eastern and Pan Am pilots having knife fights in the parking lot fighting over $10/hr CFI jobs. Unless you had 3000 hours, you didn't have a chance, even with a right seat Chieftain job flying rubber dog dookie.

It's not bad now, trust me. It can get A LOT worse, and will for a period of time, and then we'll enjoy a bright renaissance again. Rinse and repeat.

Ebb and flow maing, ebb and flow.

Doug's got a great point with the Plan B. Ebb and flow is just a fact of life in our "leading economic indicator" industry. When times are good, boy are they good... when times are bad, well, that's when you need the Plan B. And I'm not just talking about a college degree.

How about considering a "trade" in addition to a college degree? Such as... carpentry, electrician, etc. blue collar stuff mostly... something that is always in constant demand and pays well. I chose truck driving... family tradition I guess. What's great about a trade is you can take it and leave it... a management job, probably not so much. Managers are generally made through promotion. It might take years to promote to a management position that requires your management degree. Furthermore, the expectation of you when you take such a job might require a relatively lengthy commitment. Blue collar trade positions are more directly created by market demand... and most are almost always in demand. This means you can take and leave your blue-collar trade when the ebb and flow of aviation requires it. All the while, you'll be making decent pay and reaping the rewards of a well-planned career in a volatile industry.

Maybe you'll make it through your entire career without a furlough or let go... the odds are you will not, however. Smart people prepare for this possibility in the preparation for their career. Not so smart people rush into their career with their hair on fire.

As far as naysayers go... don't listen to much of it. Play your own game and keep everything straight in your own mind... because, remember, where there's two people, there's two opinions. Think positively, be enthusiastic, and remember to enjoy life (even when you're not doing your dream job).

Josh

[flyover]

"Negative talk" is worthless. Follow your dreams.

[ZachH]

I guess i am like most of us that are student pilots working our way up and following our dreams. Wish that I had taking my IFR check ride at 17. Good luck !!!

[averyrm]

If there's one thing I've learned it's that pilot's like to complain. You will always hear negative things about the industry.

Like doug said, have a plan B but go where your heart leads. Have fun and enjoy the journey.

(If it helps, there are a lot of us who still love the job)

[Doug Taylor]

I've got to go all the way to Berlin today.Sucky.

[DE727UPS]

If they had the internet when I was 17, I'd have heard....

You have no chance cause your vision isn't 20/20 uncorrected.

You have no chance unless you go military.

You have no chance unless you go to Riddle.

Maybe cause I didn't know better, I stuck it out.

All I can say is if you really want to be a pilot, go for it. There is no other way to judge the cost/benefit ratio unless you give it a shot.

[aerospacepilot]

17 and already an IFR rating!

That is impressive. The next step in your journey to fly for a major airline is to get a 4 year college degree. If you want to fly for a major airline, you will need a 4 year college degree. You can major in anything you want. Aviation degrees ARE NOT better than any other degree is you want to be a pilot. Actually, I would recommend a non-aviation degree (or aero engineering). That way if something bad happens to the industry and you get furloughed, you lose your medical, or you just don't want to fly anymore, you will have a good back up.


As for the future, it is tough to say.
There will always be a need for air travel. That is certain.

I feel the biggest threat to this industry is fuel prices. Jet fuel is just like regular gasoline. People will still drive whether gas costs $2, $3, $4, $5,and $6 a gallon, but what what happens when it gets up to $7, $8, $9 a gallon?? Same thing with jet fuel. A similar amount of people are flying today as did in 2000 when jet fuel was much cheaper. But it can only go so much higher before you see a big drop off in the amount of travelers.
Remember, when the cost of fuel goes up, it is not just their airline ticket that gets more expensive. Everything else in their life gets more expensive. Everything tied to energy gets more expensive. People get laid off because businesses need to make cost cuts due to the increasing cost of energy. And the amount of people with ability to travel goes way way down.


I think the biggest lesson this nation learned on 9/11 was that our economy is vulnerable. If our nation is able to significantly (like 70-80%) cut the amount of oil we consume in the coming years, and switch to alternative sources of energy, I think the airline industry has a bright future. If we continue at todays snails pace of alternative energy research and we keep consuming more and more oil every year, I think our future looks very dim. And not just the future of the airline industry...I am talking about the future of this country.