Oil pushes to $100

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by greaper007

Before the rust consumes it.

hehe. used to be. ever since they figured out (hired some US consultants from Detroit) how to heat treat medal they've been just fine. mine has like 7 years and 114k and no rust yet. knock on wood

[Kevin.Held]

Originally Posted by athomeinthesky

As one of the previous posts said I really think it is going to take a prolonged gas price hike to ever really have a major impact on what people are driving. I know lots of people now that are paying close to or over what their auto payment is on gas and they complain but aren't running down to get a Toyota prius.

I agree. Thanks to the mighty credit card, I think it will take >$5/gal gasoline to significantly change people's consumption habits. Lets do math: At $3/gal, a 30mpg civic, driven 12,000mi/year would cost $1200 every year to fuel up. At the same fuel price and 12000mi, a 12mi/gallon Hummer will cost you $3000/year. While an extra $1800 per year may scare a 1st year FO into a honda, I don't see it affecting middle class, two-income America. Also, consider the fact that SUV prices have gone down. I'm speculating, but I bet an Expedition sells for 3-5000 dollars less than it did 3 years ago. That's 2-3 years worth of "free" gas.

Since the American consumer won't change his/her habits, I think it falls on the government to step in and prevent a situation where they will have no choice. I'm not for big government, but legislation seems to be the best way to cut down on demand. If you make the consumer pay bigtime for that gas-guzzling SUV, the manufacturer will have no choice but to make it more efficient. If you make it really expensive for the lazy people to drive around the corner as opposed to walking, they will stop. If you make it really expensive to fly on that fuel chugging regional jet, people will buy the mainline ticket at the inconvenient time. (Obviously a different conversation for a different time). Unfortunately our government has decided that an increase in supply is the best solution ::cough::inbedwiththeoilcompanies::cough::

One last rant...We as a planet will be dependent on oil until the day the last barrel is sucked from the ground so to demand that we all drive electric cars is dumb, because where do you think that electricity comes from? Heat is the most efficient and controllable form of energy and petroleum is the cheapest and easiest source. Oil is here to stay people. The only reasonable way to curb America's apetite for petroleum is to force them to use less.

[N519AT]

Originally Posted by jynxyjoe

so does a civic.

But I pay less in the long run for gas

And they're sweet.

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by Kevin.Held

We as a planet will be dependent on oil until the day the last barrel is sucked from the ground so to demand that we all drive electric cars is dumb, because where do you think that electricity comes from? Heat is the most efficient and controllable form of energy and petroleum is the cheapest and easiest source. Oil is here to stay people.

nah. we didn't exit the stone age for lack of stone.

anyhow. oil is gonna be here for a good long time to come. just think, mid-way through this year russia will consume more oil than they produce. should be just in time for the summer season. AWESOME!

[wheelsup]

Originally Posted by surreal1221

I doubt they go home and do the math. At least the ones that have the monster Yukon, etc.

This is from 2004:

"Of all the people trading a Tahoe, better than half are going into something other than a truck-based SUV." -- Spinella, noting that rate was 1% 10 years ago"

From 2005:

"BusinessWeek says the motivation goes beyond the "north of $70" fill-up for a large SUV, to "a fresh crop of little cars" that's making small cool again. With SUV sales off 33 percent in September, sales of the compact yet "boldly styled" Mazda 3 are up 45 percent — and, overall, sales of small cars was up 23 percent."

"Some Toyota dealers are reporting as long as a six-month wait for the hybrid Prius, and most Volkswagen dealers are sold out of their diesel Jettas and Passats."

I think people are making the switch. I don't see *that many* SUV's around here any more. Mostly mid sized Camrys and the sort. But you're right, there are people out there who just fill up their SUV and complain. I worked with an FA who had an Excursion "because it was cheap to buy". She paid $100/week to fill that sucker up.

[calcapt]

Here's my prediction: Oil will be in the $70 per barrel range by fall. Big oil and traders will recognize that the new administration will likely take action to quell prices based on campaign promises and prices will fall. It's amazing that traders and speculaters have a greater impact on prices than OPEC does. Producers will increase production to appease the new president and traders will retreat bringing us back to $2.50 per gallon gasoline which will thrill us all. We seem to have forgotten it wasn't that long ago we were paying $1.80 per gallon on $50 per barrel oil. Stocks will skyrocket on the great news and the rich will get richer. Airlines will be making record profits and the move to reclaim lost pay and benefits in our beloved industry will be under way.

Remember, you read it here first!

[jynxyjoe]

i see a lot of suv's up for sale. even some of the older V8 trucks. keeping my eye out for a good deal.

[Doug Taylor]

It's all about the speculators. OMG! Riot in Nigeria! Oil futures rise. OMG! Tropical depression off of Florida! Oil futures rise.

I'm hoping that after the next election, the world will have more confidence in the dollar as well.

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by Doug Taylor

It's all about the speculators. OMG! Riot in Nigeria! Oil futures rise. OMG! Tropical depression off of Florida! Oil futures rise.

I'm hoping that after the next election, the world will have more confidence in the dollar as well.

if opec went to a mix bag of currencies instead of all dollars or all euros (iran now i believe) we wouldn't have to worry about the oil price shooting up just because the dollar falls in relation to the euro.

[calcapt]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

sales of the compact yet "boldly styled" Mazda 3 are up 45 percent

Guilty. Just bought a 5 speed with all the bells and whistles for $18k. MPG is awesome and they are a blast to drive. No more driving tanks for this boy!

[surreal1221]

Originally Posted by jynxyjoe

if opec went to a mix bag of currencies instead of all dollars or all euros (iran now i believe) we wouldn't have to worry about the oil price shooting up just because the dollar falls in relation to the euro.

Don't say that too loudly. Some here were unable to make the connection when I mentioned just this not even a few months ago.

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by surreal1221

Don't say that too loudly. Some here were unable to make the connection when I mentioned just this not even a few months ago.

oops. sorry to echo.

taking pressure off the dollar and letting it de-value may make the summer trip to europe more costly but its lettting companies like Boeing laugh all the way to the bank.

[wheelsup]

Originally Posted by N519AT

But I pay less in the long run for gas

But you paid a premium for that. At our annual mileage, value of our cars, value of a purchased diesel car just like yours, and gas @ $5/gallon vs. diesel at $5.50/gal, it would take my wife 9 years to spend the difference in acquisition costs even ignoring the increased costs of insurance on the newer vehicle. At present day prices it would almost be 15 years!

In other words, while buying a diesel worked for you, it won't work for everyone's situation, or be financially smart for everyone. If someone were in the market for a car today, however, it *might* make sense, although diesel values have SKYROCKETED recently.

When we get a house, and the new crop of diesels start appearing on the market, I do hope to get a diesel or swap the VR6 out of the jetta and throw a diesel in there and do the vegetable oil thing, mostly because I think it would be a fun project .

[wheelsup]

Originally Posted by jynxyjoe

oops. sorry to echo.

taking pressure off the dollar and letting it de-value may make the summer trip to europe more costly but its lettting companies like Boeing laugh all the way to the bank.

What are the ramifications of having the price of oil be in euros and not dollars? Aren't they pretty much all negative for us (Americans)?

[athomeinthesky]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

What are the ramifications of having the price of oil be in euros and not dollars? Aren't they pretty much all negative for us (Americans)?

Im not an expert but it is similar to want and demand, if nobody wants your dollars then the value falls even more. If Euro's were to become the number one choice of the world then they would become even more valued and the dollar would probably fall more. I am not sure that would happen because both Europe & America understand that they have to balance it because it is no use for either America or Europe if either of their currency's are not worth much.

China has enough dollars that if they sold them American dollar would bottom out but if they did that then who would buy all there #####. It's one of the few perks that comes from a global economy, everybody has an interest in keeping other countries going.

[aerospacepilot]

Take a look at this website...
http://www.calcars.org/vehicles.html

I just made a donation.

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

What are the ramifications of having the price of oil be in euros and not dollars? Aren't they pretty much all negative for us (Americans)?

well lets be clear. i'm just a pilot who read too many issues of economist.

the idea goes that the price of oil should be based off many currencies together. so value of euro's, pounds, dollars, who knows, maybe a yen or two thrown in there.

also it depends on what you call negative. there are a lot of advantages to de-valuing the dollar for us, unfortunately its tough to convince people of that. i don't know why, china is amazingly successful because of their low currency value, and they are buying up pipelines and land in iran.

i found this, its not the best but it gives u an idea on good sides and bad sides of "weak currencies"

best of luck http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedt...doll120604.htm

[jynxyjoe]

Originally Posted by athomeinthesky

Im not an expert but it is similar to want and demand, if nobody wants your dollars then the value falls even more. If Euro's were to become the number one choice of the world then they would become even more valued and the dollar would probably fall more. I am not sure that would happen because both Europe & America understand that they have to balance it because it is no use for either America or Europe if either of their currency's are not worth much.

China has enough dollars that if they sold them American dollar would bottom out but if they did that then who would buy all there #####. It's one of the few perks that comes from a global economy, everybody has an interest in keeping other countries going.

well two points to keep in mind.

values of your investments, buying dollars for instance, is dependant more on a rate of return. the us continues to drop the rate of return on money because people are going broke on mortgages. but on the bright side home ownership is at an alltime high. home ownership is the foundation (in this country) of building wealth.

this has been confused recently because china buys the heck outa the american dollar to offset their currency (from its natural rise in value). this is more of a political use of dollar but MOST countries depend on the rate of return. also its confusing to me, because so much of why the dollar was so strong in the 80's and 90's is leftover from when WWII ended and the dollar was the only stable money.

the euro took a huge jump because of the same speculation that drives oil, and funny enough its george soro's and his investor group that did a lot of it. because the speculation manipulated the euro, many in europe have regularily criticized him and his group. if you listen to interviews on public access channels and BBC they still will slip a question to him on his view of this topic because its been linked to eastern europe's rise in poverty. its all way more complex than i can get my head around.

[Mr.Maximus]

Originally Posted by jynxyjoe

oops. sorry to echo.

taking pressure off the dollar and letting it de-value may make the summer trip to europe more costly but its lettting companies like Boeing laugh all the way to the bank.

I have a hard time in believing that would be good, especially in reference to the dollars purchasing power of oil. Internationally the dollar has been dropping like a lead brick. Since we purchase a barrel of oil using dollars, if the currency continues to drop or become further devalued - the result is more dollars are required to purchase that same barrel of oil. This results in further driving the cost of fuel to the consumer up.

[E6BAV8R]

But, this country is too damn dumb and stupid to figure out when they are getting the raw end of a bad sale.

Totally agree. Too many people look at the short-term of things rather than the long-term.

[Maximillian_Jenius]

Originally Posted by Kevin.Held

I agree. Thanks to the mighty credit card, I think it will take >$5/gal gasoline to significantly change people's consumption habits. Lets do math: At $3/gal, a 30mpg civic, driven 12,000mi/year would cost $1200 every year to fuel up. At the same fuel price and 12000mi, a 12mi/gallon Hummer will cost you $3000/year. While an extra $1800 per year may scare a 1st year FO into a honda, I don't see it affecting middle class, two-income America. Also, consider the fact that SUV prices have gone down. I'm speculating, but I bet an Expedition sells for 3-5000 dollars less than it did 3 years ago. That's 2-3 years worth of "free" gas.

Since the American consumer won't change his/her habits, I think it falls on the government to step in and prevent a situation where they will have no choice. I'm not for big government, but legislation seems to be the best way to cut down on demand. If you make the consumer pay bigtime for that gas-guzzling SUV, the manufacturer will have no choice but to make it more efficient. If you make it really expensive for the lazy people to drive around the corner as opposed to walking, they will stop. If you make it really expensive to fly on that fuel chugging regional jet, people will buy the mainline ticket at the inconvenient time. (Obviously a different conversation for a different time). Unfortunately our government has decided that an increase in supply is the best solution ::cough::inbedwiththeoilcompanies::cough::

One last rant...We as a planet will be dependent on oil until the day the last barrel is sucked from the ground so to demand that we all drive electric cars is dumb, because where do you think that electricity comes from? Heat is the most efficient and controllable form of energy and petroleum is the cheapest and easiest source. Oil is here to stay people. The only reasonable way to curb America's apetite for petroleum is to force them to use less.

The Fed already stepped up. I believe that I read a week or two ago that by XXXX date all autos in the US must get XX to the gallon.

For this example, I'll say 35-40 a gallon. Remember that was an example, not fact!

[athomeinthesky]

Originally Posted by Maximillian_Jenius

The Fed already stepped up. I believe that I read a week or two ago that by XXXX date all autos in the US must get XX to the gallon.

For this example, I'll say 35-40 a gallon. Remember that was an example, not fact!

I believe your right about the 35mpg but the way I understand it is that the average mpg of the line up of the auto manufacturer must be 35mpg. So they can have cars with over 35mpg but they have to have other cars with less than 35mpg so that their line up averages out to 35mpg.

[aloft]

Originally Posted by calcapt

It's amazing that traders and speculaters have a greater impact on prices than OPEC does.

Why oil is allowed to be traded on the commodities market is beyond me.

[mrivc211]

While I agree with all of you, this conversation is pointless. World leaders and the big dogs with the $$$ who control this earth are the ones who decide when we stop using oil. Its pointless. These guys won't stop until they are finished making trillions. For you to say you wont vote for someone who supports oil is naive. I wish your idea did work, dont get me wrong. It's just not gonna happen.

Just to put something into perspective for ya'll, ExxonMobile made somewhere around $30 billion profit alone in 07'. You know where they rank among ALL companies(not just publically traded) in the entire world?

10th. Just so you know, they're measly 30 billion ain't shiz compared to what the big dogs everywhere else are making.

Considering that, you really think you and I are going to do anything about it with our $90,000/yr job? $$$ makes the world go round.

[mrivc211]

oil is $100/barrel.

$20 of that is just fear that oil is running out. Its not that oil is running out, its FEAR of it running out. Forget whats gonna happen when it actually does occur.

Another $20 is speculation about everyday ########. This part of the world and that part of the world got into a fight.

About $20 of it is because of that idiot of a president thats in office. Everytime that genious opens his mouth the market drops 3%, oil shoots up $10/barrell, and the world holds its breath to see where he's gonna bomb next. And they called Hitler a mad man.