Oh, that Mike Boyd!

[Doug Taylor]

Bold added for emphasis.

Hot Flash - Monday, November 19, 2007

Okay. Enough of The Media Hysteria
Now For Some Reality About
The Thanksgiving "Travel Crunch"
The Good News: It Should Be Pretty Much Like Any Other Wednesday
The Bad News: It Should Be Pretty Much Like Any Other Wednesday

The media stories have the amateur tinge and crocodile-terror of those reporters in the 1950's Godzilla movies, breathlessly shouting into microphones in badly translated English about how the dumb lizard was munching his way through Tokyo, tossing around busses full of people, overturning trains, and generally making a mess of things, with the authorities powerless to stop him.

We're referring to the reporting on the terrors that the flying public will be facing this Thanksgiving week-end. It has the same silly tinge of hysteria and panic of the klutzy translation of that 50s movie classic, with perfunctory reporter-on-location airport stories, replete with B-roll showing long lines of people, and the voice-over urgently stuttering out the dire warnings:

"27 million passengers will be flying this holiday!"

"That's FOUR PERCENT more than last year!

"Flights will be jam-packed!"

"Airports will be crammed with travelers"

"Flight delays could be horrendous!"

Sorry to reveal the exciting ending to this supposed air travel horror flick, but here's a flash for the reporters who are wandering out at airports and sitting in studios interviewing in amateur lightweight consumer gadflies who don't know diddly about airline operations:

Essentially, every one of those statements describes a normal week in the air travel scene of 2008.

Yup. A normal week. So the good news is that Thanksgiving week should be pretty much like any other week, give or take. The bad news is also that Thanksgiving week will be like any other week. It will be no less and no more vulnerable to system delays, cancellations, and snafus. And aside from different passenger demographics, there will only be marginally more people flying - because flights have been full for months, and there's not much capacity - if any - being added.

That's a point that many media stories have ignored entirely, preferring to repeat stuff like, "airlines will be rolling out more airplanes to meet the demand" - as if United and American have got hangars and hardstands full of idle, $35-million 737s just for the purpose of accommodating all those un-booked go-show passengers that'll be streaming into airport terminals across the nation this weekend.

Inadvertently Declaring A Godzilla Attack. It seems that the Air Transport Association has started a media stampede, by letting holiday traffic projections go unaccompanied by any discussion that would put them in context. This combines with an embarrassing lack of airline industry knowledge, or basic research on the part of some reporters, and suddenly, we've got stories predicting that the Godzilla Delay Monster will be chewing his way through LaGuardia, O'Hare, and LAX in the guise of a suddenly-choked airline system, trapping and panicking hapless millions.

Now, For Some Reality. So, at the risk of being a wet blanket, let's examine these statements that the media is turning into the equivalent of a report on a major terror attack on the American public.

"27 million passengers will be flying this holiday!"
"That's FOUR PERCENT more than last year!"

Here's a flash for the media: air traffic across the nation is now tracking every day at just about 3.5% to 4.0% above last year. So, there is no really big "spike" in total passenger numbers compared to what's been the year-over-year case.

"Flights will be jam-packed!"

Hello, media. Here's another flash that takes some of the breathless panic out of the story. Fights have been "jam-packed" - i.e., full - for the last couple of years. The industry is tracking at over 80% load factors, which means that at the times people want to fly, the seats are full. Full is full, whether it's a holiday week-end or not. Or, in media-parlance, "jam-packed."

Another tidbit of information for the media. Airplanes are not like the Tokyo trolley cars that Godzilla liked to munch on. Loads are based on the number of seats, and when they've all got a tush in them, that's it. There isn't anybody trying to squeeze more people on. Now, let's again note that flights have been full for months (years) and to make a statement that "flights will be jam-packed" as if airlines will be shoving strap-hangers through the rear commissary door is just plain stupid - and sloppy reporting.

Then comes the unstated and unsubstantiated assumption that there will be flight delays because of this "jam-packed" situation. Every year, it seems that some network stages a correspondent at the FAA facility in Virginia, vigilant to be the first to report back about flight delays due to holiday volume. Somehow, they assume that since there'll be more vehicles on I-95 over the holiday, that'll be the same situation in the air. Wrong.

Wet blanket time: There aren't any more airplanes in the sky the Wednesday before Thanksgiving than any other Wednesday. A couple of extra sections, maybe. But the volume of iron flying around is essentially the same. So, where's the assumption coming from that the skies will also be "jam-packed"? Simple. It's from lack of understanding of the subject matter. And lack of diligent research, beyond reading press releases.

Enter W Into The Circus. It's Scary.

Then last week, flanked by his Secretary of Transportation and FAA Administrator, President Bush suddenly appeared on TV screens across the nation, making deeply-profound statements about the crisis, like informing the public that there's been a lot of flight delays this year, and his tight team was going to fix it for the holidays.

Anybody watching could tell that he was just reading a script - he had no fire or deep involvement with the subject matter. Or any real understanding of it, either.

Nevertheless, some of the media responded to the President's comments as if the cavalry had just arrived to save Fort Apache from land developers. Comments like,

"The President has implemented sweeping changes to counter the enormous delays that will be seen due to the huge volumes of people traveling!"

To anybody familiar with the causes of airline delays, this press conference was embarrassing for our nation. Not since Leslie Neilson's portrayal of the president in Scary Movie 3 have we witnessed such White House stumbling and bumbling.

Harsh comment, maybe. It is true that the President is busy, and certainly cannot be expected to be an expert on all matters. But it is incumbent on the incumbent to at least be briefed factually and be able to address the issue intelligently. In that, Bush failed. Leslie Neilson beware: Bush is auditioning for your part in the next Scary Movie sequel.

What Bush delivered was a pathetic, poorly-planned photo op. Pabulum for the masses, and, when looking at the measures he proposed, Nancy Pelosi couldn't have done better job in making W look like a buffoon by feeding him really bad information. Point by point:

Opening Up Military Air Space. Now, in light of the fact that Thanksgiving will have essentially no more airplanes in the sky, if military air space restrictions are a major cause of delays (which, by the way they aren't) why didn't W do this months ago? Not that it makes a bit of difference, as the net increase in airspace utilized isn't going to have an effect on the nation as a whole. And, remember, the flights will still be under the control of an outdated and understaffed ATC system - the one about which Bush hasn't a clue.

Increasing Penalty For Involuntary Bumping To $800. What? Hint to the people slipping cribsheets and talking points to the President: Oversales are not a material cause of delays. Remember, passengers are processed before going through security and before they get to the departure gate. Those with seat assignments are boarded, and the flight departs. Those left "bumped" (a term used mostly by the media, by the way, and not much by the airline industry) then get handled.

But the average person on the street thinks this is a great deal. So does W and the inept handlers who made this a part of his "sweeping" suggestions. One leeeetle issue that nobody told the President, is that are almost no "involuntary" oversold passengers left. It isn't some big customer service problem. And it isn't one that causes delays.

Here's a fact - and facts seem to be very short in some of the media reporting. Passengers categorized as being oversold involuntarily - those who would be affected by the President's bold move - represent approximately one one-hundredth of one percent of all enplaned passengers. That's right, according to DOT data (and that's the guv'ment stuff the President's handlers had access to) passengers bumped involuntary are less than one one-hundredth of one percent of enplanements. State lottery odds are better.

Yet the President made it a part of his aggressive and sweeping suggestions to clear the skies of delays. We can only hope he's getting more professional advice on how to deal with the war in Iraq.

Deferring Non-Critical Maintenance On FAA Equipment. So, that's going to reduce the workload on air traffic controllers? And what are the technicians going to do? Go out and park airplanes? Direct traffic in front of the Dulles terminal? Deliver coffee and send out for pizza for the controllers? But this is the kind of nonsense we deserve when there are no qualifications necessary to be Secretary of Transportation, or FAA Administrator, other than having political connections.

The nation needs leadership. That means putting fire under the FAA to completely re-design the ATC system. Or, to just fire the FAA leadership. Leadership demands more than dumb, off-the-cuff calls for "FAA Re-Authorization" that are dishonestly postured as the "solution" to fixing delay. Leadership means having Secretaries of Transportation and FAA Administrators that work for results and work for the people, not just political mannequins who are in the job just because of who they know.

Leadership demands much more than the pabulum that Bush read - read off a cheat-sheet - at his big news conference. Face it: like him or dislike him, Bush pandered. He didn't provide leadership.

Different Demographics Will Affect Airport Processing. But Not On-Time Performance. So, there is no reason that this holiday will be any better or worse than last week. A snowstorm or a line or two of bad weather, and our FAA's inept ATC system will screw up the system in a flash. Just like always.

But there is the issue of different demographics. More families with screaming kids. More parents using child-occupied strollers like battering rams to get to the front of the boarding line. More amateur travelers not aware that an economy-size bottle of Old Spice is considered a risk to national security by the TSA. More checked luggage. It is accurate that the mix of passengers is not the same, but the net number of them will not be some huge spike.

Flights were full last Wednesday. They will be full this Wednesday, and with no significant increase in capacity, that means net volumes won't be the equivalent of the human Tsunami being predicted for O'Hare on the 6PM news. At least not any more than usual.

So, we can re-cap: The Chicken Littles are correct. This holiday week could be really bad for air travel.

Just like every other week of the year.

[tonyw]

But Dough, without something to hype that's not news instead of reporting real news, what would the media do?

I can see it now...just like every year.

"And the lines are long here at XYZ airport. You, sir, how long have you been in line?"

"About an hour."

"About an hour. So we urge you to get here early for your flight."

Whoever that reporter is should win the "no [poop] Sherlock award."

Anyone who's done any flying these days knows the planes are packed. Nothing new there.

It's the once or twice a year Aunt Bessies who are used to less crowded planes that are going to freak.

Those who do more flying? No surprises there.

For the longest time, I never bothered to use my e-upgrades. Now I do because the planes are full. When I had an empty seat next to me in coach, I was fine with it.

Now? Gimme the first class seat, please, since I know the coach section is going to be packed.

[Tokyo007]

this is going to sound totally out there wild idea, won't happen sort of thing..

but wouldn't it work if let's say.. they brought back some semi-small regulation that said on specific routes from like class B to class B the aircraft couldn't be smaller than oo.. 100 seats? Maybe 200?

This way instead of a bunch of "small" commuter 121 aircraft it would force them to fly heavy stuff..and the commuters would go back to.. being commuters and feeders?

Kind of like using public transportation/bus or car pool lane for the skies? IF she's not big she's not using it.

Wild Idea I know..but by this time next year giving airlines time to get ready for it, delays would be..much lower and fares would stay the same? Moving more people in bigger planes but at the same time less flights??? People happy? (I should run for president..)

crazy Idea I know.

[tonyw]

Originally Posted by Tokyo007

Wild Idea I know..but by this time next year giving airlines time to get ready for it, delays would be..much lower and fares would stay the same? Moving more people in bigger planes but at the same time less flights??? People happy? (I should run for president..)

Ah, but the airlines would say, no, you're taking away choice from our customers. Our customers want to fly at various times during the day and if we use larger aircraft at fewer times, they'll lose that choice.

Of course, left unsaid is the truth -- those departure and arrival times are just SWAGs because of all the delays that occur with an air transport system that's stretched to its limits.

I'd rather have four flights a day on a 757 to the city of my choice than eight on an RJ if it meant the departure and arrival times are actually somewhat accurate.

[Tokyo007]

Yeah I agree with you.. the airlines would say no it won't happen...

Bush is on his way out, he has nothing to lose..imagine bushing saying this:

I wish he would have just said, "look airlines..it's time to get your act together in the free market because the FAA won't do anything we know that, opening the military routes is just a temp. solution and a security risk, and it's not going to get better that's for sure without us coming in. It's not GA so stop blaming them that's doing this to you..it's the market being competitive.. waaay too cut-throat competitive and it's starting to get into safety issues and that's where I come in..you got this season to impress us or we'll slip in a 121 reg that will fix things TODAY. Oh and *cough* we're raising cigarette tax by like 300% for the heck of it we need some medicare funds *cough*.. cheers i'll be in texas if you need me! Happy holidays everyone!"

That's what I would have said.. right after that speech i'd whip out a polaroid camera and take a pic of Mike Boyd and stuff it in his front suit pocket. Airlines watching this on cspan would freak out and it'd be on every eveing news that night O_o "WOA! NELLIE! This presidents middle name is action!"

(sorry i'm bored.. thought i'd get creative there)

But It can be fixed that's for sure!

[Doug Taylor]

I'm afraid of any politician trying to fix the system. That scares the bejezus out of me, especially ANY president.

Not that the government *couldn't* present a solution, I'm just afraid of what that solution is.

But congestion isn't a problem. If it was, then you wouldn't have had the federal government making foreign ownership rules more malleable in order for Sir Richard Branson to bring his operation to the US.

[LoadMasterC141]

I disagree a little bit, not on the difference in delays because of weather, volume, etc....
I disagree because of the aforementioned abundance of "Aunt Bessies".

As a frequent business traveler, I rarely fly on the "civilian" day. I am talking about Saturday. When I do though, it is so much more chaotic than a normal travel day, where most people have flown enough to "know the drill". I recently flew on a Saturday morning, and probably have 3-4 times this year. What a difference.

• Families with wailing kids everywhere.
• Ticket lines a mile long because Aunt Matilda decided that it is preposterous she must pay more for her 74Lb bag that has given the ticket agent a hernia.
• Security lines miles long because, even though they were told a dozen times before getting to the metal detector, half the people cannot seem to hear "Takeoff your shoes, your laptop must be out, No liquids except in 1oz containers".
• At the gate it takes exponentially longer to load the plane because Mom can't seem to realize, while she is "setting up" her seating realm, everyone behind her is just standing there watching.
• Getting off is equally as bad because, inevitably, people decide they are too important to unload front to back and bumrush to the front. Oh and Mom must disassemble her airplane world, once again while everyone that didn't bumrush upfront watches.
• Finally, take it for what it is worth, but it seems the staff, from the guy driving the parking bus all the way to the aircrew, are less experienced themselves. Without going into detail, certain things make that obvious, plus the notion that the more senior types are more apt to get the holiday off. Sure they can handle the normal stuff, but experience pays(as we all know) when it comes to the out of the ordinary.
• Finally, the staff, with experience pushed aside for this, are not going to be ready for this. In my current industry, we have a similar "peak" summer season; we even call it "the 100 days of summer". In our analysis, we see productivity at its' lowest at the beginning, as the employees and processes get "used to" the increased work demand. By mid-summer, Productivity is at its' highest, and slumps to just above what it was in the beginning at the end, as resources are worn out. We have craziness on Thanksgiving and Christmas as well. Inevitably, these seasons are our worst, productively, because noone is really prepared for what is coming, after having almost 3 months off from the "busy" season.

I would think each of these items would contribute, or compound, the big delays, like weather. ATC, etc....

[Doug Taylor]

People DO bring a lot of crap with them, that's for sure.

[tonyw]

Loadmaster, I think you're spot on. You can tell who knows what they're doing and who doesn't.

I think the people on my flight back from Denver packed more crap than I did INCLUDING my skis for their two day trip. It was absurd.

You learn to pack light when you travel frequently because all that crap you didn't use is just stuff you're lugging back and forth for nothing.

It's kind of the reverse of the 80/20 rule. The 20 percent who provide the airlines with most of their revenue are probably the ones who require the least use of airline resources because they know how to act. The 80 percent who provide the least revenue consume the most resources because they don't.

I also agree with you about not having experienced staff nor enough staff to deal with the "rush" although I question whether it's really a rush if load factors have been in the 80s all year long. In the business I work in, we have certain periods of higher demand than others. We hire extra help and make everyone work additional hours in order to handle that extra demand.

I don't know why airlines don't do this. You may not need it from the folks who are ON the airplanes but you're going to need it for the folks the passengers see before they get on the planes and the folks who load the bags and so on.