Flying Magazine Article

[SmitteyB]

Anyone see the article in Flying Magazine's December 2007 Edition labled "Where have all the Pilots gone?"

It's on page 85. Although it's got Kit Darby quotes it is a nice article. It talks about the qualified pilot shortage and more. Even goes as far as saying Flight Safety Academy is even willing to pay career CFI's $52,000/year.

[Doug Taylor]

Add a more lucrative benefits package, voila, "shortage" gone.

Pilots will separate from the military to pursue commercial aviation.

Senior PIC's at the regional level will find it more financially attractive to give up some seniority to climb the career ladder.

Pilots who left the profession because of money or family obligations have incentive to return.

More students in flight schools because, at that point, it'd be worth it to many more people to enter the profession because of the financial rewards and fringe benefits.

Pretty simple!

[Fly4Pay]

Right now, the high cost of avgas no doubt keeps a LOT of folks from even starting down the road. We're already to the point where an hour of avgas costs more than I used to pay for a 150 wet during my training. Without that starter pool of candidates, the military is going to be the only source there is. And with them scaling back manning, even THAT won't last long.

At that point, I firmly believe that you'll see a HUGE correction in pilot pay. Right now, they can get folks to sign up, hire on, and do the job for peanuts--mainly because the cost to get there, though high, wasn't a show stopper for folks. Some guys, as we talk about on here, will even pay for a job, or take a crappy job or compensation package just to be able to say "I'm an airline pilot."

BUT--as the cost to get there gets higher, less and less people will bother with it. May be "cool," but not economically feasible. Then, in top whipsaw fashion, the pay will go back up--a lot. Question is, will it happen while I'm still able to enjoy it?!?!?!?

[Murdoughnut]

Originally Posted by Fly4Pay

Right now, the high cost of avgas no doubt keeps a LOT of folks from even starting down the road. We're already to the point where an hour of avgas costs more than I used to pay for a 150 wet during my training. Without that starter pool of candidates, the military is going to be the only source there is. And with them scaling back manning, even THAT won't last long.

At that point, I firmly believe that you'll see a HUGE correction in pilot pay. Right now, they can get folks to sign up, hire on, and do the job for peanuts--mainly because the cost to get there, though high, wasn't a show stopper for folks. Some guys, as we talk about on here, will even pay for a job, or take a crappy job or compensation package just to be able to say "I'm an airline pilot."

BUT--as the cost to get there gets higher, less and less people will bother with it. May be "cool," but not economically feasible. Then, in top whipsaw fashion, the pay will go back up--a lot. Question is, will it happen while I'm still able to enjoy it?!?!?!?

Not to mention the fact that all of these flight schools went out and bought brand new, glass cockpit a/c instead of using older a/c to offset the fuel costs. $150 per hour for a 172? No thanks.

[Crockrocket94]

I dont know if I could live down here in VRB though

[Minnesota_Flyer]

I don't know. I get the distinct impression that management at some of the regionals would rather cancel flights than raise pay in anything more than a token manner. A lot of managements seem to be of the Lorenzo model -- it's OK if you destroy the company, as long as you go down screwing the employees.

In any event, whatever shortage of pilots there is is purely a product of mismanagement. You can't pay highly-trained professionals $19K/year and treat them like garbage and expect that to work long-term.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by Crockrocket94

I dont know if I could live down here in VRB though

I actually liked living in VRB. I'd move back tomorrow if I could.

[surreal1221]

I can't say that (as a one time enlisted member) I'm really saddened by the fact that a number of officers are staying in the military to fly.

Good on em. . .and - leaves the door fairly open for guys like me who got tired of working for officers who were on an ego trip. (Generalization. . . )

Anyway - yeah, "qualified shortage," . . . definition of "qualified" changes from professional pilot to professional pilot, and from AIR Inc to Airline recruiting offices.

More military guys staying in the service to fly - good for me, and any other career changers.

This past year was certainly the time to make the change, I'm convinced of that. If I had another year, hell, even 6 months on an enlistment. . .I don't think that I would have convinced my family or myself that this would be a move that would be beneficial. But, the timing was right, the finances worked out great (no silly 100k loan for a job that's going to pay crap the first few years), and here we go. Simple as that.

[BugSmasher]

That's a good article. Pilot shortage as a topic- or at least shades of it, keeps popping up in Flying. There was also a Tom Benenson piece about dissapearing CFIs this year, as well as Les Abend's comparison of CAPT vs. Collegiate training - all byproducts of shortage.

Its evident at my flight school. CFI turnover is a disadvantage for students like me in terms of lessons repeated, and cetainly from a cost standpoint, but also good in the sense that we benefit from different teaching styles and techniqes.

It would benefit students if CFIing paid enough to become something more than a three month transitional period, but its an economic cycle and I understand why they leave. If I were in my CFI's shoes, I'd rather take advantage of a shortage that makes me a scarce resource than wait until a pilot oversupply cycle that leaves me poor and without options.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by BugSmasher

It would benefit students if CFIing paid enough to become something more than a [b]three month[b] transitional period, but its an economic cycle and I understand why they leave. If I were in my CFI's shoes, I'd rather take advantage of a shortage that makes me a scarce resource than wait until a pilot oversupply cycle that leaves me poor and without options.

Man, I feel old. I remember when I wrapped up in seven months, and that was miraculous at the time. Some guys are choosing to go to a bridge program rather than get the CFI ratings, so that's cutting the supply even further. My bet is that if CFI pay goes up (and it probably will), you might see flight training costs go up even more.

I think the greatest factor right now is the high cost of flight training. I know if I were getting into this game right now....I'd retire as a ramper at SWA. There's no way I could afford to pay for flight training on what the regionals are paying based on today's costs. Costs from 3 years ago....sure. Today? Nope. I hear some of the debt the JetU guys coming here are in and it boggles my mind how they make ends meet every month.....

[bronco21016]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Man, I feel old. I remember when I wrapped up in seven months, and that was miraculous at the time. Some guys are choosing to go to a bridge program rather than get the CFI ratings, so that's cutting the supply even further. My bet is that if CFI pay goes up (and it probably will), you might see flight training costs go up even more.

I think the greatest factor right now is the high cost of flight training. I know if I were getting into this game right now....I'd retire as a ramper at SWA. There's no way I could afford to pay for flight training on what the regionals are paying based on today's costs. Costs from 3 years ago....sure. Today? Nope. I hear some of the debt the JetU guys coming here are in and it boggles my mind how they make ends meet every month.....

How far in is boggling the mind? I know things are getting outrageous at my school. Nearly $200/hour including the instructor for our Cirrus.... It's pretty impossible not to get in at least $60,000 deep, if mommy and daddy are rich even. I'm flying a Seneca now and I figure I can't throw nickels out the window fast enough to match what I pay an hour in that plane haha.