Airlines Brace for Shortage of Pilots

[flyover]

Washington Times article. Consistent with things I've been hearing.

Content warning: Kit Darby is quoted at one point so some may not want to read this.


http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/...108200055/1001

[scramjet]

Pardon my ignorance, but who is Kit Darby and why does everyone hate him so much?

[scramjet]

Another thing, when they say how many passengers fly, they DON'T mean unique passengers, just how many tickets are sold, correct? Say if an airport reported 500 passengers in a year, but most of them were round trippers and some were repeat customers, that could mean it was really just say 150 unique passengers, right?

[skidz]

Originally Posted by scramjet

Another thing, when they say how many passengers fly, they DON'T mean unique passengers, just how many tickets are sold, correct? Say if an airport reported 500 passengers in a year, but most of them were round trippers and some were repeat customers, that could mean it was really just say 150 unique passengers, right?

I think they do have the actual number of enplaned passengers. There are ways to estimate that and adjust for the error that has been made in double counting. They don't just count tickets.

[NickH]

I notice he explains pilots being lured abroad by the fact that the salary is tax-free, not the fact that they are paid a decent amount to start with!

[E6BAV8R]

The average annual salary for a first officer in his fifth year in 2004 was $95,000, but that fell to $87,000 in 2004 and eroded to $83,000 in 2007, according to Aviation Information Resources Inc.

I'm guessing that is at a Major?

[PurduePilot]

Originally Posted by E6BAV8R

I'm guessing that is at a Major?

Yeah, way to skew the salary. If only I'd making that much, I be happier than a pig in garbage.

[Mr.Maximus]

Originally Posted by PurduePilot

Yeah, way to skew the salary. If only I'd making that much, I be happier than a pig in garbage.

There are alot of jobs that pay that amount and significantly more, not just the majors. Obviously if your flying for a regional, you'll never see that amount unless you make the regional your career - yuck.


Max

[mrambo]

Is there a place that tells approximately the number of pilots in each category (Majors, FedEx/UPS/DHL, regionals, private charter jets)?

MR.

[MSUDAWG]

Originally Posted by mrambo

Is there a place that tells approximately the number of pilots in each category (Majors, FedEx/UPS/DHL, regionals, private charter jets)?

MR.

**cough** small 135 freight dawgs......*cough cough**

[GalaxyIFE]

Originally Posted by MSUDAWG

**cough** small 135 freight dawgs......*cough cough**

What, flying freight is a real job? Does AirNet have CRJ-900s now? Too cool man.... (just in case there is some confusion)

[GalaxyIFE]

The article says....

What's happening with the American pilots is that the Air Force and Navy and Army pipeline is all but shut down because of the war," Mr. Elwell said.

That is a false statement. We are still cranking out as many C-5 drivers as in the past, and actually in comparison to prior 9/11, we have increased the training numbers.

So I have to wonder what else is crap in the article?

[Maximillian_Jenius]

Originally Posted by GalaxyIFE

The article says....

What's happening with the American pilots is that the Air Force and Navy and Army pipeline is all but shut down because of the war," Mr. Elwell said.

That is a false statement. We are still cranking out as many C-5 drivers as in the past, and actually in comparison to prior 9/11, we have increased the training numbers.

So I have to wonder what else is crap in the article?

By pipeline he is talking about military pilots not retiring for the airlines. But staying in active service due to the war and the higher retention salaries/bonuses!

[Boom Boom]

Is there a place that tells approximately the number of pilots in each category (Majors, FedEx/UPS/DHL, regionals, private charter jets)?

FEDEX

4761 Pilots on the Master Senority List...

[NJA_Capt]

Shortage huh? But plenty of pilots going to foreign carriers for more $$$ (?). So which is it?

It pretty much proves what many of us have said all along. There is NOT a pilot shortage. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work for food stamps. The article failed to mention the first year regional wages (<20K) and even first year SWA (48K). Funny how that is always left out when the media talks about high pilot salaries.

There will eventually be a pilot shortage because the industry will price out students, and the regionals will continue to pay paltry wages and no-one will be interested in doing it (hopefully).

Consider this. 385 mainline jets have been replaced with over 1000 RJs in the last 6 years. Consider how many of the RJ drivers would now be making a good living at major pay scales if the RJs had been kept at bay.
But hey...they got to fly jets, right?

[jtrain609]

Originally Posted by NJA_Capt

Shortage huh? But plenty of pilots going to foreign carriers for more $$$ (?). So which is it?

It pretty much proves what many of us have said all along. There is NOT a pilot shortage. There is a shortage of pilots willing to work for food stamps. The article failed to mention the first year regional wages (<20K) and even first year SWA (48K). Funny how that is always left out when the media talks about high pilot salaries.

There will eventually be a pilot shortage because the industry will price out students, and the regionals will continue to pay paltry wages and no-one will be interested in doing it (hopefully).

Consider this. 385 mainline jets have been replaced with over 1000 RJs in the last 6 years. Consider how many of the RJ drivers would now be making a good living at major pay scales if the RJs had been kept at bay.
But hey...they got to fly jets, right?

Those jets SHOULD HAVE stayed at mainline, and to be honest I wish they'd go back, but they're never going to.

Not everybody flying RJ's is geeked out to be flying a jet, and a lot of people are simply looking for a quality of life and pay bump.

Kinda like what you were looking for when you (most likely) went from charter to Net Jets eh?

Now me personally? I can't justify living in an extremely expensive location (Los Angeles), while making $24,000 a year to sit right seat in a Lear or a King Air while having 4 hard days off a month. I tried, and simply couldn't swing it.

So guess where I am now...

[frog_flyer]

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

FEDEX

4761 Pilots on the Master Senority List...

Looks like one person snuck by apc!

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by E6BAV8R

I'm guessing that is at a Major?

Yep. Not many regionals have FIFTH year FOs. There are one or two, but they're the exception, not the rule. fifth year CAs at most regionals don't make as much as the article stated.

I'm with John. I'd be all for RJs going to mainline. Actually, I'd be even MORE for consolidating RJ routes into mainline flights. Might cut down on the amount of time my butt sits on a taxiiway in places like PHL.

[flyover]

Originally Posted by NJA_Capt

Shortage huh? But plenty of pilots going to foreign carriers for more $$$ (?). So which is it?

It pretty much proves what many of us have said all along. There is NOT a pilot shortage.

That is the whole point. There are not "plenty of pilots" to fill the demand in Asia and the Middle East. That pool has dried up.

If things continue as they are in Asia and other parts of the world there aren't enough pilots to fill those positions.

Consider this. 385 mainline jets have been replaced with over 1000 RJs in the last 6 years. Consider how many of the RJ drivers would now be making a good living at major pay scales if the RJs had been kept at bay.
But hey...they got to fly jets, right?

You don't understand. This is very fair because people have to "pay their dues" flying passenger jets on a schedule so they can hopefully someday move up to the mainline and........fly passenger jets on a schedule.

[Boom Boom]

Looks like one person snuck by apc!

Happened since the last group of new hires (internals) started.. Must have been someone on disability or long term Mil leave?? Who knows, hopefully he/she is junior to me

[tonyw]

I think with things the way they are, aviation is going to lose a lot of career changers. If you think about it, it's difficult to take up flying, even for a private ticket, unless you're making $50K or so. You can't just dump $4-5K into a private ticket if you're scrimping by on $30K a year.

So let's say that someone who's making $50K a year gets his ratings, gets his time in, and so on. Now he's a candidate for a regional.

And he's going to take a what, 60 percent paycut?

How many people are willing to do that?

[scramjet]

You know what could kill any demand for pilots and indeed stunt the industry really bad? Oil in the next 20 years. In fact, I think it's a given UNLESS we develop new technologies for airline style flying.

[NJA_Capt]

Originally Posted by flyover

That is the whole point. There are not "plenty of pilots" to fill the demand in Asia and the Middle East. That pool has dried up.

Hard to find pilots to fly in the ME?? Gee, wonder why that might be.

IF there was a shortage, don't you think NJA, FedEx, UPS and the thousands of corporate jet operators would be having trouble? Guess what, they're NOT having trouble. Even operators requiring 5000tt aren't having trouble. The ONLY people having trouble finding pilots are the airlines. Especially the ones offering pitiful wages. Hmmm....where have we heard this before...higher requirements and higher wages equal plenty of pilot applicants. Funny how that works, eh?

The 1000 RJs carry less total pax than the 385 mainline jets they replaced. The airlines caused their pilot shortage by using their entire pilot supply chain to operate more numbers of smaller planes hauling fewer people. This is akin to the City Transit System selling the BIG buses and replacing them with an even larger fleet of Ford Econoline vans. Logistically stupid, but that's just what the airlines have done.

[flyover]

Originally Posted by NJA_Capt

IF there was a shortage, don't you think NJA, FedEx, UPS and the thousands of corporate jet operators would be having trouble? Guess what, they're NOT having trouble.

It's very early in the hiring cycle right now, certainly too early for top-tier companies to have any trouble. Assuming world economy stays on track (and that's a big assumption) and the growth plans of most airlines in the world are even partially implemented, there is a deep shortage. And how do ME carriers get pilots? With pay, benefits and doing whatever it takes to bring pilots over there. Asian carriers are experiencing losses of Asian pilots to ME carriers, something they had not anticipated.

[flyover]

Originally Posted by scramjet

You know what could kill any demand for pilots and indeed stunt the industry really bad? Oil in the next 20 years. In fact, I think it's a given UNLESS we develop new technologies for airline style flying.

I started my airline career during the biggest oil crisis America has seen, during the Carter administration. Oil prices are still not near what they were then (adjusted for inflation) and all the dire predictions made then were wrong. Our worldwide oil reserves are way larger than what "experts" thought they were in the 70s and still increasing. So.......I'm optimistic.