ERAU Letter

[MissedApproach]

Here's a scanned copy of a letter ERAU sent my parents:

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April 1, 2003

Dear Parent,

Several parents of Embry-Riddle students and prospective students have asked me if the current economic climate will affect their sons' and daughters' dreams of becoming professional pilots. Perhaps that question is on your mind, too.

Let me respond by sharing with you some very encouraging conversations I've been having with leaders of America's aviation industry.

Captain Larry Rockliff, vice president of training for Airbus North America, recently told me: " Although this industry is suffering from problems in the economy and fallout from 9-11, the future holds much promise for today's student. Studies show that there is a projected three to four-percent growth annually in passenger traffic over the next 20 years. A manpower shortage is almost assured."

John O 'Brien, director of engineering and air safety for the Airline Pilots Association, said: "Along with the projected growth of the overall industry, retirements are going to peak again soon. In two to three years, we will be looking for qualified people to sit in the cockpit. In addition, the government will soon announce its plans to invest heavily in the aviation system infrastructure, and the administration intends to retain America's role as an international aviation leader. For someone considering a career in aviation, now would be a great time to start."

And Steve Brechter, chief operating officer of NetJets, reports: "We see unending growth in the fractional business. Our growth has been between 20-30 percent annually. There are ongoing talent wars for really good people, and we are constantly on the lookout for them -the pilots, maintenance experts, meteorologists, and all the other disciplines that go into managing the business. Our need to attract and retain the best people is such that we have created collegiate internship programs with Embry-Riddle and -other top-name universities to keep the flow of talent coming."

Studies by the Federal Aviation Administration and AIR, Inc. have forecast that by 2007 the shortage of qualified new pilots in the United States will grow to 3,603. In the same year, the new pilot shortage worldwide will be 11,303.

This gap between available pilots and the number of pilots needed is being caused by four factors that don't often get reported in the news: retirements, regional airlines, corporate aviation, and fractional jets.

· Retirements. This year alone, 1,500 airline pilots are reaching the mandatory retirement age of 60. By 2005, the number of retiring Baby Boomer pilots will increase to 2,100 per year.

· Regional airlines. The number of regional and low-cost air carriers such as Southwest, Jet Blue, AirTran, and Atlantic Coast Airlines is growing by 20 percent -a phenomenal rate. And they're adding more flights, buying more aircraft, and hiring more pilots.

· Corporate aviation . The market for new pilots in corporate aviation continues on an upward trend. A recent report published by the National Business Aviation Association forecasts that Honeywell Aerospace will deliver 8,400 new business aircraft over the next 10 years. Cessna has orders for 385 of its new $2.2 million Mustangs, a six-passenger jet that has yet to reach the market.

· Fractional jets. A growing number of business travelers these days are getting from Point A to Point B in jets that are "fractionally" owned by several companies. More pilots than ever are needed to fly these jets, which are a booming new sector in aviation.

This positive news should reassure anyone who dreams of becoming a professional pilot. But it is particularly favorable for Embry-Riddle graduates, who are always highly sought by the aviation industry.

Sincerely,

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I wish!
I can't wait for that "assured manpower shortage"

I also like how its addressed to my parents and not me. I guess I'm not supposed to care about my future. I suppose it's becase in most cases the parents are the ones that pay the bill, not in my case!

At least they did back their statements with statistics. They just didn't paint a complete picture.

[JaceTheAce]

Wow! Cool letter. Yeah, in my case too, I am the one that is paying for my education - 100%. I'm 21 and I'd feel offended if ERAU sent me that letter..."as if" my parents need to be concerned about my future! I'm the one that does!

[collegegrad]

I think what they mean by a shortage of qualified pilots are pilots that have 10,000 hours in a 747!

[ananoman]

Overall the letter is truthful. If you are contemplating going to a 4 year school things will probably have turned around by then. For an incoming freshman it is impossible to know what the market will be when they graduate. It may even be a good time for them to choose this profession. Four years is a long time and they may graduate at just the right time.

I think the main thing that will drive pilot hiring is retirements and the economy. RJ's, Fractionals, and Corporate hiring will not be much of a factor overall. If the economy sucks then corporations are not going to buy fractional jets or start an aviation department. The amount of RJ jobs will be offset by furloughs. If the economy picks up, terrorism fears decline, and enough people hit age 60, then the overall picture will improve.

[MUTiger]

Hahaha "shortage"......what a joke.

-tiger

[Doug Taylor]

You guys are learning! Makin' the webmaster proud!

[cointyro]

"I think the main thing that will drive pilot hiring is retirements and the economy."

Well, no duh

[BLUESKY]

well, ananoman is correct...no telling what the market may look like in 4 or 5 years.......just understand the risks you are taking, and that sometimes risks work for the better and somtimes they don't.....

[chunk75]

Well Kit Darby said....[insert crap here]

Chunk