Are the airlines really that cyclical?

[TechFlyer]

I decided that I would be a pilot about 4 years ago while I was still in high school. Shortly after I decided this, 9-11 happened and shut down airline hiring. Aside form this type of event, I've only seen excessive pilot hiring by airlines. My neighbor is a retired AA captain and he always talks about how bad the cycles can be. I also hear guys saying how they got out of the military and the airlines weren't hiring so they found another career.

If the airlines are really this cyclical, and they've been hiring freely over the past few years when can we expect this bubble to burst? I could be wrong here and totally off track, but I'm just curious if this is something that I could be facing. Also, when the airlines "aren't hiring" does this mean that NOBODY is getting hired, or they're just not hiring 100 pilots a month?

Thanks

[greaper007]

Hey tech, you have to remember that the only airlines hiring right now are the regionals. Most of the Legacies and Majors are still recovering. I'd predict that once the Legacies and Majors start hiring again, the regionals will be hiring even more. So I guess all you can say is that it's neither as bad or as good as you think it is right now....

[Tim]

The airline industry as a whole is very cyclical. When I worked for Delta in ATL they were hiring for Customer service agents like crazy. Problem was they couldnt get them for $9 an hour or if they did stay through training going to evening shift and working in the cold and rain and holidays got to them and they would quit. In one day 25 new hires walked out. Many though they interviewed could not pass the drug test or back ground check. At the same time ACS was hiring MX was laying off and scaling way back. It all depends on what you want to do with the airline, espcecially a major.