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April 6th, 2006, 14:17
| #1 |
| Junior Member  Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Logan, UT
Posts: 216
|  Chances of recovery?
Okay, im just starting in to the field, but do you think that there is a chance that in a moderate (10 or so years) that the field could pretty well recover? Like pilots being treated better, pay going up? Is there a chance that the airlines could slowly pull themselfs out? I was just talking to a guy at my airport that is (way) old. He is a retired commercial pilot. He was telling me how many times the industry has done this and it always recovered.
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April 6th, 2006, 14:19
| #2 |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul
Posts: 2,016
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The airlines will recover. It'll probably be many years, though, before pilot wages recover.
__________________ "If we love our country, we should also love our countrymen." -- Ronald Reagan Comm. - ASEL, Instrument 290 TT |
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April 6th, 2006, 14:27
| #3 | |
| Old Skool Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: _
Posts: 5,611
| Quote:
It used to be that labor was an airlines' #1 cost. Now fuel is quickly taking that #1 slot - and I personally don't see ANY relief in sight. | |
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April 6th, 2006, 14:34
| #4 |
| Senior Member  Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Vero Beach, Florida
Posts: 1,215
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It's the same thing no matter what field. They fluctuate. It will always rise and fall, the only difference is how long it stays at the peaks and valleys.
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April 6th, 2006, 15:36
| #5 |
| Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Logan, UT
Posts: 216
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Oil prices are high. But airplanes like the dreamliner which acording to boeing is 20% more fuel efficient will help that right? Airlines just need to adjust to the times. Or start charging the consumer more. Thats what every other industry does, I dont know why aviation should be any diffrent.
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April 7th, 2006, 04:56
| #6 |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 2,205
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Yes eventually the airlines will make a profit again but they never, I mean NEVER be the way they were. The moral of most, not all, employees will probably take longer to recover than the profits.
__________________ Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turn skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.----- Leonardo Da Vinci |
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April 7th, 2006, 11:32
| #7 | |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia
Posts: 3,389
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It's inconceivable to me that the unique forces that produced the "golden" era for airline employees will ever exist again. Being protected from competition for so many years is what established those benefit and pay packages. From here on out it will be a competitive business for all concerned.
__________________ Whether you think you can or think you can't, you're right. — Henry Ford | |
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April 7th, 2006, 15:52
| #8 |
| Old Skool Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 2,205
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Dave I guess the "family" will be completely gone here soon or whats left of it
__________________ Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turn skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.----- Leonardo Da Vinci |
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April 7th, 2006, 16:16
| #9 |
| Senior Member  Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: West Hartford, Ct
Posts: 1,128
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Of course what is it that you guys are aspiring to. I think we all stand a chance of making a very decent salary. Maybe not at the beggining but before we hit 40. I'd speculate that we'll be making the equivilant of most professionals and more than most mid-level management.
__________________ <<<<<Hunter S. Thompson extends the Gonzo concept to flying. |
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April 7th, 2006, 17:08
| #10 | |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: OH or is it MX??
Posts: 4,881
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April 7th, 2006, 18:48
| #11 | |
| Old Skool Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia
Posts: 3,389
| Quote:
It was easy to be a family when "Dad" never had to cut anyone's allowance.
__________________ Whether you think you can or think you can't, you're right. — Henry Ford | |
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April 7th, 2006, 21:43
| #12 |
| Agent Smith  |
It might recover, it might not, but I think it's largely up to US. You and I. - Every time someone wants to plunk down $25,000 to ride as the 20th passenger in a Beech 1900... - Each time companies use the bankruptcy laws to loot the employees and there are people breathlessly attempting to justify it... - Each time someone agrees to fly larger and larger aircraft for lower and lower rates... - Each time someone has the audacity to say, "I love this job, I'll do it for free, wee!" (management is listening, btw)... ...we go further down the crapper in this profession. I think it's reversible but there has to be a lot of education to the next generation of pilots.
__________________ Doug Taylor http://76school.flyblog.com (old!) http://30west.flyblog.com (updated 11/28) |
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April 7th, 2006, 22:16
| #13 | |
| Old Skool Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Georgia
Posts: 3,389
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When I got into this industry 30 years ago it was exactly the same. My first passenger flying job I made minimum wage for each hour on duty. And I was excited to get that job because I knew it was the first step. The little 135 operator I worked for wasn't making any money, even paying me minimum wage, so no "evil" owners exploiting me. The difference between then and now: Then, airline pilots (what we all wanted to be) were in their own bubble, immune from the laws of supply and demand, making 2 or 3 times what anyone else in aviation made. Now, we're all in the same boat. That's a lot of educating to do.
__________________ Whether you think you can or think you can't, you're right. — Henry Ford | |
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April 7th, 2006, 22:25
| #14 | |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,943
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How many guys to you think would attempt my job at 45 K per year? Tons. 35K per year? Tons. 25K per year? Tons. This has to stop in order for this to be a profession. That's why the Delta pilots are fed up. 78 seat jets must be flown at mainline for a respectable pay rate. I'm not saying tons of money. But more than $22 per hour. If this industry is going to reward professional airline pilots with a pay rate of $22 per hour...it's time to get out. The career requires not only technical expertise...but experience, judgment and critical thinking skills. Future airline pilots who embark on a career in order to earn a max paycheck of $50K per year...I think lack the latter two traits. Now, I'm definitely NOT motivated by money in the slightest...but what Doug posts above is the root of the ruination of the piloting profession. Your chosen profession should be able to provide at least a modest but comfortable living. Here's a quick example...in the early 90's Comair was the best regional to get on with. But they started charging $12,000 per year to get hired. I had great flight time and experience...3500 hours and over a couple thousand hours of night freight multi time. But the airline would only look at me if I was willing to buy the job. They did hire lots and lots of 1500 hours pilots, though. I ended up getting a job at a crummy turboprop outfit that did not charge for training. Interestingly enough...that crummy outfit got the most experienced pilots...who were unwilling to pay for the job. It ended up being a wonderful pilot group...many, many guys got major jobs straight from that outfit because of their experience. But the better commuter jobs...they could not get because of the trend of pay for training. What's wrong with your chosen profession when the most qualified applicants are not considered due to constraints such as these? The exact same precedence is set when guys fly 50/78/100 seaters for nothing. If it does not reverse...and pilots continue to flock to those seats for $22 per hour...I suggest everyone should rethink their foray into this career. Someday you will be paired up on an international 7 day extravaganza with your crew. Will you be proud of the talent sitting next to you? And I don't mean flying skills. I mean professionals who are intelligent and engaging, who can think critically, and analyze accurately...who are forwarding thinking and aware that their perceptions can be skewed from reality in seconds...who can self assess such situations and correct their course of action appropriately. It's a wonderfully challenging career...and I and my colleagues love it. But airline pilots evolve from the military and charter outifits and part 135 freight outfits...not from a shiny academy. Let's have a profession where it means something to be an airline pilot...and where the hires are seasoned and experienced and battle tested. | |
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April 7th, 2006, 22:41
| #15 |
| Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: West Hartford, Ct
Posts: 1,128
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't it seem like the airline industry is going through sort of a paradigm shift of sorts right now. It seems to me that the legacies are starting to pull out of the domestic markets and concentrate on the international markets. While the regionals along with Southwest and Jetblue are fighting over the domestic routes. To me this seems like an excellent way for the industry to recover. It seems to be what most other countries carriers do. If they can cut out the competition maybe they can start charging a profitable fare. Which would hopefully trickle down to the employees.
__________________ <<<<<Hunter S. Thompson extends the Gonzo concept to flying. |
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April 7th, 2006, 22:50
| #16 | |
| Old Skool Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 1,943
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I think you are right on a strategy basis. This is what my company's vision for recovery looks like and it's very exciting. But on an organizational level...for any company to thrive and succeed...there must be a trust and loyalty, cohesion and leadership by example...an enthusiasm and industriousness found from top to bottom. If an organization cannot instill these characteristics and execute them...I wonder about the long term success of any business plan. I believe this is why SW is very successful, in part. Also, in part, by having a sound biz plan. But without the organizational leadership...I think their biz plan would not make them as successful a company. | |
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April 8th, 2006, 00:02
| #17 |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Austin, TX, USA
Posts: 1,845
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No, I don't think pay will ever receover to what it was pre 2001. It's probably just a matter of time before someone figure out a way to train migrant workers to speak a little english and operate an aircraft to FAA standards, paying them US minimum wage to do so. $22/hr will be International widebody captains' pay. In the meantime I'm planning on sticking it out, unless things really go down the tubes, and they could be headed that way soon.... |
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April 8th, 2006, 00:07
| #18 |
| Agent Smith |
Speaking of "a little English" -- we had a tugdriver in Orange County that could barely understand English. The captain asked, "We're going to turn on the hydraulic pumps, are our wings clear?" The tugdriver says, "Clear to push?" "Are the wings clear?" "Fuel slip?" "No." and much louder, "ARE THE WINGS CLEAR?" So he shakes his head, walks away and brings back another ramper that was able to understand what we were trying to ask him. Thank goodness we didn't have a fire during pushback else he probably couldn't tell us.
__________________ Doug Taylor http://76school.flyblog.com (old!) http://30west.flyblog.com (updated 11/28) |
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April 8th, 2006, 00:32
| #19 |
| Old Skool Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 2,205
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We lost our hearing when we lost our pay.....you didnt see the insert in your flight plan.....
__________________ Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turn skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.----- Leonardo Da Vinci |
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April 8th, 2006, 01:02
| #20 |
| Old Skool  Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Prime Universe
Posts: 1,638
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When you have to talk to people who don't understand english just be very loud and talk very slow
__________________ This is a signature, fear it. |
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April 8th, 2006, 01:14
| #21 |
| Old Skool Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Atlanta
Posts: 2,205
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I understand english just fine but when you lose 19% somethings tend to go away
__________________ Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turn skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.----- Leonardo Da Vinci |
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