Hurricane Katrina to impact New Orleans?

[Chris_Ford]

Hope all you JCers in the MSY region are getting the heck out of Dodge. The pessimists say that a Cat IV hitting New Orleans could result in 40,000-60,000 casualties, and leave the city under 20 feet of water for months.

Hopefully that will be avoided, but it would be bizarre to see a city just disappear...

[GatorFC]

Yep, a direct Cat IV hit is New Orleans' worst nightmare. I was part of the evacuation last year for Ivan after having evacuated from FL for Francis.

My parents and sister have already left for relatives in Houston, and traffic is already starting to back up on I-10.

[tonyw]

What's wrong with hurricanes and New Orleans? I mean, guys, they are a great way to get really messed up really quickly. And if someone has too many of 'em and pukes, they just throw down some kitty litter and it's all good.

And I'm sure I'd really enjoy slamming some of those down with a girl named Katrina.

Oh, wait. The weather hurricane? My bad.

[Grabo172]

[Pooch]

I feel very bad for everyone in the path who can't just get up and leave. Right now it looks like New Orleans may be smacked hard...

[tonyw]

Holy smokes, is this a huge hurricane!

On the radio, they said that we are already seeing some rain showers from it here in the DC area, and it's what, 1000 miles away?

Yeesh!

[SkyJeff]

New Orleans might not exist after this storm. It's 8ft below sea level and with the levees formed around it, it sits at the bottom of a bowl. The levees are 13ft high and they are expecting the surge to top 25ft. It's going to be a disaster if the eye hits NO head on or even to the west.

The Hurricane center is saying this is the storm they have been fearing for New Orleans since the beginning. No storm this powerful has come close to hitting us head on.

I'm 40 miles north of New Orleans and fortunetley not under-sea level, but I'm scared about the winds. Hopefully I have a house Tuesday.

[Grabo172]

If you are in the area, get the he!! out of Dodge! It's up to 175 MPH winds, and NO is expected to be hit straight on!

IF you've got a house there, pick up you Homeowners Insurance policy and run. If you've got a plane, kick the tires and light the fires and fly! (At least you'll have a tailwind)

Godspeed to you!

[Stormflyer]

Yes, Katrina is strengthening, even after reaching Category 5! As a weather enthusiast, this is very exciting to watch!

There is still some uncertainty about the track; Katrina could make landfall as far west as Vermilion Bay, Lousiana, and as far east as Biloxi or Pascagoula in Mississippi. But by far the most likely is a landfall just east of Port Fourchon with a direct hit on New Orleans. The high pressure area split as expected, leaving a weakness in the subtropical ridge that will guide Katrina.

There is also uncertainty about the intensity. It is at 175 mph right now, so it will certainly be Category 4 or 5 upon landfall. Katrina could strengthen further because the ocean temperatures and lack of wind shear are favorable. However, it could weaken slightly for a variety of reasons, including the possibility of going through an eyewall replacement cycle.

The winds and surge will devastate New Orleans, even if the hurricane passes a bit to the west or east, and it looks certain that oil production and refining operations will be disrupted. Think higher gasoline prices!

If the storm hits just right so that water in Lake Pontchartrain has nowhere to go but flood the city, then New Orleans will be submerged in a lot of water!

[MikeD]

Wow.......

Pressure in the storm center is down to 907 millibars, a rapid decrease of 42 mb in 24 hours...........

From the NWS:

[ QUOTE ]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[/ QUOTE ]

[tonyw]

Sheesh, man, do I feel like a real tool for joking about this hurricane.

My apologies to all those in the soon to be affected areas.

Good luck riding the storm out and I hope you all come out okay.

[MikeD]

Additionally, Eeonomically, this might rival September 11ths impact on the economy. The petrochemical industry in Lousiana is bound to take a major hit; as Louisiana generates about 30% of all POL (Petroleum, Oil, Lubricant) production for the United States.

Next time Congress wants to take Lousiana oil royalties and apply them towards welfare, instead of coastal erosion protection............

....but not to politicize this.......

[Pooch]

If you are in the area to be hit, my prayers are with you. Get out while you can...
"4th most powerful hurricane in recorded history..."
"...worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength hurricane — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say. New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes. Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.
Much of the city would be under water for weeks."

Sewage, chemicals, fire ants, and poisonous snakes???!!!
Sheesh!

[GatorFC]

Fortunately all my friends and family have evacuated already, but I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that there will be catastrophic damage to New Orleans and a lot of my friends and family's homes.

[WillNotFly4Food]

KNBG 281515 06015KT 9000 SCT030 BKN050 BKN200 QHN2960INS
VCTS
BECMG 1719 03020KT 9999 VCTS BKN030 BKN060 OVC200
QNH2958INS
TEMPO 1720 4800 SHRA BR
BECMG 2022 VRB35G50KT 4800 SHRA BR BKN020CB OVC050
QNH2950INS VCTS
TEMPO 2202 VRB50G70KT 1600 TSRA BR OVC003CB
TEMPO 0206 VRB50G70KT 1600 PTSRA BR OVC003CB
BECMG 0507 VRB115G130KT 0400 PTSRAGR OVC003CB
QNH2860INS
TEMPO 0509 PFC
BECMG 0910 QNH2750INS
TEMPO 0913 PFC
TEMPO 1315 PFC T34/20Z T24/11Z

[Kristie]

what's that mean?

I had no idea this hurricane is going to be this powerful!!

if anyone that lives in the orleans and/or affected area's needs a place to crash (because your going to be out of your element for a ungodly amount of time), let us know.. we've got space here and it'll save some $$ in having to have a hotel etc. hopefully the hotel establishments will not be gouging those that are going to be affected...

I really also hope everyone takes their animals with them - otherwise, as unreal as it sounds, they probalby won't survive.

It's hard to read the information that the NWS is putting out - unreal to read the actual truth of what may become reality in the next day (nobody better come out and say it wasn't PC enuff!! that type of info shouldn't be PC)... I pray for the folks that decide to be stupid and ride it out "french quarter hurricane style"!!

[SkyJeff]

It's getting closer. I've never evacuated for a hurricane, but I should have for this one. I'm worried, but will be extremely lucky and fortunate if I have a home come Tuesday.

[Kristie]

are you evacuating? 40 miles looks like nothing to the size of that puppy!

[tonyw]

Between midnight and 2AM CDT, New Orleans is going to see winds of 115 knots sustained with gusts to 130 knots.

That's knots, not MPH, so we're talking sustained winds of around 130 MPH and gusts to about 145.

Jeff, man, make sure your grandmother has all the meds she's going to need fully stocked! And hopefully, you will find a storm shelter where you can ride it out. Another thing is, do you know someplace with backup power generators, because I can imagine your grandmother's going to need A/C. Good luck, man!

And for the rest of us, I highly advise you fill your car's gas tank right now. As Mike said, there is so much petrochemical infrastructure in Louisiana that is going to be at the very least shut down for days. Less capacity for producing gasoline, in an already tight market, means prices will go up.

[SkyJeff]

No, I have too look after my grandma here. She is too sick to go anywhere. My mother is a nurse and is currently in Cali working. Luckily for that because the hospital here is shut down and could very well be gone too. If we lose our house she will go to work there full-time and I'll have to move and start school again the following semester I suppose.

Where I live it won't flood. I live far enough away from water and above sea level. I'll get a lot of rain and a lot of wind, but it won't flood. However I have large 100ft pine trees surround my house so one may come through my roof and/or land on my truck. The wind may also blow my roof off, but I pray it won't.

I'm in better shape than the people on the south side of Lake Ponchatrain which is the large lake north of New Orleans. The south side of the lake is below sea level and the cities sit in a bowl because of the levees.

Preparing for the worst!!! Hoping for the best.

Good luck to everyone in the same boat as me! Will take pictures.

[Cruise]

I'm currently in Houston at the Spring Hill Suites (Hobby Airport) for Indoc at Flight Safety. The hotel was empty last week.....right now, it's busting at the seams from all the LA evacuees. This hotel doesn't normally allow pets...but there are lots of dogs and cats running around the halls right now. It's nice to see that the hotel is being accomodating to these folks. Like they don't have enough on their mind right now then have to deal w/ a hotel that won't let the pet stay. So, I recommend the Marriot chains for everyone....they've been extremely accomodating.

I can relate w/ these people......I lived in Ft. Pierce (2 blocks from the beach) last year when Hurricanes Frances and Jeane came through and tore the place up. Many of my friends and myself included lost lots of stuff, including the home I was purchasing. When I finally returned home, I actuallly pored water out of my computer......

Anyhow........good luck to all the JC'ers out in the lowlands of LA......you're gonna need it.

[Grabo172]

Good Luck Jeff!

Bottom floor, middle of the house! NO WINDOWS.

It may be tempting to go look, but this one is too big, just take care of yourselves, let the crazy meteorologists for the weather channel take the pictures...

[MikeD]

From Keesler AFB, MS.

KBIX 290120 06015G25 9999 VCTS SCT030CB BKN150 BKN250 QNH2965INS

TEMPO 0002 VRB25G40KT 9000 +FCTSRA BKN030CB BKN150BKN250

...some more lines, but the best part is the last...

BECMG 1819 16090G110KT 0800 +TSRA OVC005CB QNH2916INS T34/21Z T27/12Z 0140 LAST NO AMNDS

Guess they're getting the hell out of Dodge..........

[mtsu_av8er]

[ QUOTE ]
If you've got a plane, kick the tires and light the fires and fly! (At least you'll have a tailwind).

[/ QUOTE ]

Which direction do the winds blow around a low again??

[MikeD]

Man.........look at the altimeter settings with the pressure drop.......I'm looking at one TF that's calling 26.63....about 902 millibars!!!!!

So what's the conversion factor for that? Since I don't think any altimeters go that low.

But you know, if you want to fly your way out of Dodge, and can takeoff with a headwind....you'll have a hell of a tailwind if you're going the appropriate way!