Future of the Airlines

[greaper007]

Alright, I hope I'm not re hashing some older threads but I'm sure I am. What do you guys see as the future of the airlines? My father is a Capt. at SWA and he's told me that he thinks everything is going to be back to normal in about 7 years. He bases this on all the retirements that are occuring/people are traveling more than ever.

To me it seems like a lot of the regionals are really taking over the domestic routes . However, it seems like these routes will be taken over by larger aircraft once the industry stablizes.

So, when everyone speculates about the difficulty of obtaining a high paying job as a pilot in the future, what do you mean? It seems like every year more and more people fly. Within the last few months I've read articles pertaining to the several large airports not having the capacity for growing air travel within the next few years. Airbus is close to releasing it's new aircraft, and I was under the impression that Boeing had something in the works (I'm not sure wether or not they canned their concorde-ish jet program). Is the future really so macbre for 24 years olds like myself considering entering the industry? Or do we just have to weather out a couple of rough years while the industry changes.

[Doug Taylor]

Cyclical as it ever was.

[greaper007]

Thanks for the quick reply. That's what I was leaning towards. It just seems like there's so much anomosity on these message boards that it almost makes you question your choice. However, the way I see it is that september 11 hit the airlines hard. Probably harder than anything in their history. However, from what I've read de-regulation also presented significant hurdles for the industry. Several former big players didn't walk away from that one. However, the industry came out of it. It seems like it will recover from this also and that there will eventually be decent wages again. Maybe not the 300,000 dollars a year that was projected when I was a freshman in college. But definitly higher than the average career field.

[Doug Taylor]

Comparatively to other message boards, forums.jetcarers is like the oasis in the desert.

[DE727UPS]

The industry could very well improve. What worries me is that the pay cuts that the majors have taken are unprecedented. It will take an awful long to time gain that back.

"So, when everyone speculates about the difficulty of obtaining a high paying job as a pilot in the future"

When you say high paying, you need to define that. 100K, 200K, 300K. I think 100K is a high paying job and well within reach down the road, even at the regionals. 200K, you'll never see that at the regionals and only a few senior guys at some majors will see that for a short time. 300K, well, I think that was always propaganda. At a couple of the majors, if you work all the extra trips you can legally get, you might have a shot at it.

You can talk about new airplanes, good economy, and pilot retirements. All will be good for the career but none of that necessarily means that pilot pay will go back to what it used to be.

[greaper007]

I was thinking the 100 to 200 range.

[Doug Taylor]

As one who voted "f-you! f-no! Shove it up your arse and twist!" for the last round of concessions, don't discount those that voted accordingly. Luckily, TODAY, there aren't the evil CABAL of sorts of people constantly underbiding those at the 'Evil Legacy Carriers" than there are fighting against the cargo airlines.

If I had a dollar for every Air Tran or JetBlue pilot willing to do my job for 80% less, I'd be retired by now and typing this, half drunk from a Parisian cafe outside the Rue Cler.

The industry is cyclical. There are those that are willing to fight the 'good fight' and those that are willing to throw all to the wind in chances that Wall Street will smile upon their airline and grand them 'exhaulted' status.

[DE727UPS]

I was truly saddened to find out I only make a couple of bucks an hours less than a United 737/Airbus Capt. To know that I am, by default, one of the more highly paid pilots makes me sick. I never, in my wildest dreams, would have thought this would happen.

I was in ONT the other day and rode in a hotel van with a Delta Capt who was on the LAX scheduling committe. His last words to me were....."it's now up to you guys to uphold the industry, don't give up, don't give them an inch...."

[Doug Taylor]

I'm afraid the Delta dork you ran into on the crew bus was "French Connection - UK"'ed up.

No, it's not up to you because we're in intrinscially different industries and your pressures are different.

My pressures, as a mainline passenger pilot are forces like Air Tran, Jetblue and the passenger-carrying regionals that are hell bent on flying mainline narrowbody flying at "get the experience and move up to captain quickly-rates" that want to trend the pay scale downward, whereas your pressures are perhaps (and pardon me if this is incorrect) cargo cabotage laws and the foreign carriers that are chomping at the bits to do your job for less.

As quick as they can bring in a Vigin Atlantic in to perform domestic point-to-point passenger travel for el-cheapo is the same pressures that freight forwarders have as our wonderful administration fights to relieve cabotage laws enabling third world nations to fly point-to-point domestic US and international freight.

Don't feel the pressure, I'm sorry, but it's not on you, it's on the dumbasses within the passenger airline industry and the dip##### you met is incorrect. Each time some dip##### is willing to fly for the 'love' and the chances at a quick 'upgrade' are the pressures that the average line pilot is fighting against. Your fight is a little different, heavily related, but different.

Tell me what pilot said some crackhead ##### like that so I can poop in his flight kit.

[DE727UPS]

The guy was definately a real old school RDer. Asked me straight up what our Capts make and seemed disappointed that he was a couple of dollars and hour less as a 737 Capt.

Mostly, I was smiling and nodding my head as he talked for the 15 minutes to the hotel.

Frankly, I could care less about my companies pressures. I know my company makes money hand over fist and always has. It's funny they used to not want to compare us to the pax airlines during the last contract, since the pay was higher. Now, they are telling us we need to compare ourselves to other airline pilots in our expectations in regards to pay. A 180 degree turn in their position.

We'll do the best we can on the next contract to raise the bar.

[flyover]

The high wages and benefits that became the gold standard for pilots were a product of a 100% unionized pilot force in a 100% regulated industry. Deregulation blew those dynamics apart and a change (downward) was inevitable. The only reason it didn't happen sooner was the defacto regulation of upstarts having a hard time getting access to key airports and the sustained economic boom of the 80s and 90s. Now deregulation is here and the pay and benefits of regulation are gone, permanently, or until we become completely socialist in which case pay will go down some more.

I'd agree with the SWA guy. In 7 years, tops, the realignment of the industry will be complete and things will be fairly stable. Or maybe not.

Agree with Doug. The comment about "you guys" holding the line was as inappropriate as when the UAL guys were saying it to DAL guys in the crew busses. People always want someone else to "take one for the team."

[Doug Taylor]

When, in the history of the airline business was it ever 100% unionized? The downward spiral will stop when people get off their collective asses and not a second earlier.

[flyover]

For all practical purposes it was 100% of the pilots, which was my original statement.

The downward spiral cannot stop until the financial health of the employers stops spiraling down.

Did you notice that, once again, Duane Woerth (I know your opinion of him) called for the Justice department to stand aside and let the industry consolidate and reduce capacity? It's definitely an overloaded life boat scenario.

You have to have a solid foundation financially before you can even talk about high wages and benefits.

(Thankful his flight kit is safely hidden from Doug.)

[tonyw]

I was at a conference last week full of very well thought of industry execs -- guys like Tony Fernandes from AirAsia, among others.

Between the times when I was filling up my coffee cup and pitching ad space, I was able to sit in on a few of the sessions. I wasn't supposed to, but I figured why not. If they didn't kick me out, why shouldn't I sit in?

One of the things that caught my attention was what one of the guys talking about route development said.

He said that he thinks that consolidation and elimination of capacity would only be temporary. If you have an airport with gates to fill, they'll find someone to fill those gates and within a few years, we'll be back up to the same capacity levels.

I don't remember who said that, but the rest of the panel agreed. And some of those guys were people who helped bring airlines that were considered dead back to life.

[Mr_Creepy]

[ QUOTE ]
For all practical purposes it was 100% of the pilots, which was my original statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately that's never been true either. There's always been some non-union carriers around.

[flyover]

[ QUOTE ]
He said that he thinks that consolidation and elimination of capacity would only be temporary.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obviously true. And Duane Woerth agrees. What specifically needs to be reduced is the number of connecting hubs, which is the problem that's causing the legacies to kill each other competing for customers. Capacity will increase as larger aircraft feed the fewer hubs.

[ QUOTE ]
For all practical purposes it was 100% of the pilots, which was my original statement.



Unfortunately that's never been true either. There's always been some non-union carriers around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well they were very few prior to deregulation, and none of the "majors". I think most union organizers would tell you that ALPA had covered the industry as well as any union could pre-deregulation. That's why the qualifiers as in: For all practical puposes and pilots.

Those mean I don't literally mean 100% and that I don't believe the whole industry was unionized.

[JAM]

This seemed like the appropriate thread, so....

"As a member of the PROUD 21% group that voted "screw you!" on Delta's
concession package, you will never, ever ever ever, run into a single pilot
that voted in the 60% "yes" group at Comair.

Fuggetaboutit.

Almost six months after the capitulation of all capitulations and I haven't
flown with a 78%er yet.

Don't hold your breath."

Doug TaYLOR


Oh, I don't know about that, Doug. I have many friends and have flown with a couple of captains that were in that 60% group. I cannot get angry with people who vote the "other" way. I can only hope they understand why we voted the way we did. In the end, the "in Favor's" have it. So be it. We will all have to accept the consequence.

[Cachon]

I think that sooner or later aspiring pilots are going to realize that it is not worth it to spent between 60k to 90k
to get your ratings + the cost of a college education, if at the end you be at the regionals making minimum wage for a least the first 5 years.

If major airlines are not going to hire pilots for a while, there will be pressure on the regionals to raise wages.

But that's just my naive opinion.

[Doug Taylor]

Aviation is one of those businesses where there's rarely pressure to raise rates to match waning interest in hard work at low pay.

They'll cut minimums and the resumes will come rolling in once again.

[Doug Taylor]

Crossposting from an internal union forum to a public website is very bad form, however I stand by my statement.

[JAM]

[ QUOTE ]
Aviation is one of those businesses where there's rarely pressure to raise rates to match waning interest in hard work at low pay.

They'll cut minimums and the resumes will come rolling in once again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. They always have. Heck, not too long ago you could get on with a major with under 1000hrs.

[Cachon]

[ QUOTE ]
Crossposting from an internal union forum to a public website is very bad form, however I stand by my statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jam that was not cool man

[Kristie]

[ QUOTE ]
Crossposting from an internal union forum to a public website is very bad form, however I stand by my statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

VERY bad form...esp when it's from an "internal" forum that's literally not supposed to be seen by the public.

[flyover]

[ QUOTE ]
Aviation is one of those businesses where there's rarely pressure to raise rates to match waning interest in hard work at low pay.

They'll cut minimums and the resumes will come rolling in once again.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the 30 years I've been in I've never seen waning interest. I've always been curious about when that's going to happen. I still run into young people that want to fly no matter what.

That makes it even more important that ALPA navigate the shoals very carefully now to be around for the deep water later.

It's kind of like when Al Haynes and the guys in UAL 232 lost all their hydraulics. There was no question it was going to be a bad landing. The question was could it be at all survivable?

[Cachon]

I think that It should be edited right now!