"Tarver Report"

[pilot602]

I call shennanigans.

[montanapilot]

propaganda.


most likely outdated as hell, like most of the their advertising.

[DE727UPS]

I had it in my mind I was really gonna blast the Tarver report a while back. After I read it, though, I found that I at least agreed with SOME of what she says...so I left it alone.

See.....I can be fair and balanced....

[pilot602]

Yeah but you can say the same thing about some of the policies Ken Lay instituted at Enron .... or some of the things Nixon did ... or some of the things that went on during the French Revolution ...

[project7]

[ QUOTE ]
I call shennanigans.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, everybody grab a broom.

[traffic]

inside info from former panam management:
walter david, president/ceo of pan am, "commissioned" his personal friend judy tarver to write that 'so-called' report. david told her exactly what it should say, how she should say it, and he personally edited the report (he basically wrote the whole report). he paid tarver to write the report only for pan am, and specifically for pan am's marketing purposes.

[project7]

[ QUOTE ]
inside info from former panam management:
walter david, president/ceo of pan am, "commissioned" his personal friend judy tarver to write that 'so-called' report. david told her exactly what it should say, how she should say it, and he personally edited the report (he basically wrote the whole report). he paid tarver to write the report only for pan am, and specifically for pan am's marketing purposes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a big surprise. Whatever brings in the rubes.

[Kristie]

that's pretty darn shady, if it's true!

[TexasFlyer]

Since 1999 I been a professional recruiter and corporate talent searcher ("headhunter") working with hundreds of companies from small to Fortune 50. So this comes from an expert in the employment industry. The Traver Report is very TRUE. It is very well known in my professional circle that this is true for all professions, not just aviation. Very soon we will see the real effect of the "aged" work-force retiring. Think about why Social Security is no longer viable. There simply is not enough working people to support the masses of people who are going to be retiring in the next few years, the "baby boomer" generation (let's leave our gov't lack of planning out of the picture here). So not only is social security a problem in the future, so will the problem of companies / airlines trying to hire qualified applicants due to the shortage in the workforce. It's a natural effect of baby-boomers retiring and not enough of us to refill their roles. So even if the economy remains slow (which it will not as it always has its' ups & downs), hiring will have to take place as these people retire. And eventually there will be more positions than QUALIFIED applicants.

On that note, if you want a job where you will be guarenteed a major headache and more stress than you may enjoy, learn to be a good "headhunter" like myself and you will make at least $100k a year now and in a few more years be making well into the $300k range or more (remember this is a 55-60 hour a week job and you are a middleman which means everything is always your fault). I have decided all the money in the world is not worth being tethered to the phone recruiting certain people and having an office with a fixed view of the buildign next to me, so I'll walk away from this life to be a pilot working for burger flipper wages for 5-6 years before making it back to just a middle class lifestyle in 6-10 years. And heck, I can always go back to this business in the future anyway if anything ever goes wrong in my future flight career.

I really advise everyone on here to go to your bookstore and buy 'The Impending Crisis - Too Many Jobs, Too Few People'. It is a Best Seller all through last year but most in the business community have read it, so they should finally have these back in stock at your store in the business and/or best sellers sections. The Impending Crisis is a major topic in my professional circle and of serious concern with my Fortune Clients as we are already beginning to see the effects of this from a planning perspective. The companies I work for in finding their talent have a big "?" on what to do about this. And my headhunter peers have money in their eyes since our six figure incomes for 2005 should begin to apprach the mid-six figures around 2008 to 2010; at least for those who want to dedicate their life to the business (it's not worth it!). Here is the book info:

'The Impending Crisis - Too many Jobs, Too Few People' - by Roger E Herman, Thomas G Olivo, & Joyce L. Gioia.

I urge you. Read that book and then lets' talk about the Tarver Report and the state of the aviation industry.

[dakovich]

off topic, but i'm confused about this whole baby-boomer "problem". everyone says there won't be enough people to fill jobs because of all the retirments of the baby-boomers and what not, but i can't see the math in that.

-big population increase after WWII (baby-boom)

-more people, more demand, more production, more jobs

-boomers have their own kids, probably at a lower rate though (a baby-boom family might have had 4 kids...boomers themselves only have like 2 kids per family, but maybe a little less...1.5 kids per couple or whatever)

-so the population peaks and then either stays the same or has a small downturn here in the US.

so assuming the small decrease in population, i can somewhat understand how there will be a "shortage" of workers or whatever. but considering immigration and its impact on picking up the slack for demand of employees i can't say i really see how there will be a shortage in the workforce.

now SS i can understand why there will be some problems, but i don't want to get into that.


so anyway, if anyone can explain this stuff to me a little better i'd appreciate it. especially in terms of the aviation community and the impact it'll have on pilot hiring and travel loads over the next decade or so.

[kellwolf]

Actually, I know a lot of baby boomers that didn't have kids at all. They didn't want to be bothered with being tied down.

[TexasFlyer]

The key is qualified people to fill the jobs. Most Student VISA's end up going back to their native country since our companies will not provide sponsorship for their work visa (maybe this will change in the future, but right now it's the rule pretty much). And the immigrants who are populating this country are not going to be pilots, accountants, engineers, or other professionals. They are mostly here due to a better quality of life, yet they have no education and will not be getting an education for several generations. They tend to be small business owners who hire their own mostly. Proven facts. Touchy subject. So I'd rather not go into too much detail since the book provides a very logical and stasticial analysis with all the trends listed out. And I can not summarize it effectively in this forum since even the cliff note version would have to be a good 100 pages long.