what are my chances?

[wanderingphoto.com]

Very sorry if this has been covered... I do appreciate the timeline-related info available in this forum, but while I wait, wait, wait with the rest of you, putting my life and family on hold, I'm wondering "what really are my chances here?"

I'm a Feb OTS applicant like many of you, got a 95 on the atsat, just put in geo-preferences of ID and CO (both cc and term), and now awaiting what I assume is the next step-- referral lists.

My problem is that i'm 26, married, just finished my bachelor's degree last week, and i'm torn between pursuing a job/career in my current field (which would take me out of state) or just sitting on my hands all summer hoping the FAA calls me up. I'd really love to work ATC but if I wait, wait, and wait some more finally to be informed that i was NOT put on any referral lists, well, I'd feel like an idiot quite frankly.

So, I know none of you has *all the answers* but what is your feeling in regards to making it onto referral lists, getting thru interviews, and eventually making it to OKC?? 50/50? 80/20?

Thanks alot. I've followed this forum since Feb-Mar and you all have been very helpful

[Brooklyn]

Im 26, married, and I have 2 children, but Im just going to wait it out this summer and see what happens! I feel like there is a very good chance we will be called!!! Maybe its just wishful thinking or maybe it is just good old fashioned optimism. GOOD LUCK to you!

[Reischel]

Hi, all. I am wondering the same thing: What are the chances of being selected after doing ATSAT. I'm afraid I'm not as optimistic, though...

Check this out, the FAA's controller staffing plan:

http://www.faa.gov/airports_airtraff...a/CWP_2008.pdf

In this document, I learned that only 7% of the FY 2007 hires came from the general public, the other 93% coming from ATC colleges and individuals with previous ATC experience (p.29). The FAA hired 1815 controllers in FY2007 (p.29), so only 127 controllers were hired from the general public.

I then read something else in the report:

The number of people in the hiring pool varies during the year

as the agency recruits applicants, evaluates them, and draws from the pool. However, the overall goal is to maintain a pool of between 3,000 and 5,000 candidates available for consideration by selection panels at any one time. (p.30 of the report, emphasis added).

Therefore if the FAA wants a pool of 3000-5000 candidates at all times, and only draws 127 controllers annually from the general public, the probabability of being selected is between 2.5 - 4.2% for a non-experienced individual.

That is rather distressing. I might as well go play the lottery. Can someone tell me where my logic is wrong?

-Reischel

[GeorgeM]

Originally Posted by Reischel

... The FAA hired 1815 controllers in FY2007 (p.29), so only 127 controllers were hired from the general public.

...

Don't know about FY07, but 64 students started the Enroute basics class yesterday, and there are more Enroute basics classes scheduled. As I recall, CTI and VRA don't do basics. My guess is, if they're going to hire 1800 controllers per year, they'll need a lot of OTS.

[wanderingphoto.com]

That is rather distressing. I might as well go play the lottery. Can someone tell me where my logic is wrong?

-Reischel

I browsed through that report and I can see your angst. Here would be my observations on a few things---

Therefore if the FAA wants a pool of 3000-5000 candidates at all times, and only draws 127 controllers annually from the general public, the probabability of being selected is between 2.5 - 4.2% for a non-experienced individual.

(these are all my assumptions)-- That 3000-5000 pool probably includes "qualified" and "well qualified" and statistically the "qualified" would make up the majority of that pool. (maybe 60-70% of that number) So being "well qualified" is probably a nice bonus.

Also, the 1800 trainees does not *appear* to include those who washed out of the academy, quit, etc... therefore that number may be higher when we are talking strictly "referral lists, PEPC's, etc"

They are also planning to hire more in 2008 than any other year, and I get the impression they will probably hire more OTS than they did last year.

Well anyway, what the heck do i know

[SoonerATC]

Originally Posted by Reischel

In this document, I learned that only 7% of the FY 2007 hires came from the general public, the other 93% coming from ATC colleges and individuals with previous ATC experience (p.29). The FAA hired 1815 controllers in FY2007 (p.29), so only 127 controllers were hired from the general public.

FY2007 lasted from Oct 1, 2006 through Sep 30th 2007. The first public announcements werent even listed until Mar/April of 2007 if I'm correct. Between Mar/April 2007 and Sep 2007, I can see how only 127 were hired. Hardly enough time at all.

[berg1315]

This was also before the PEPC process and everyone had to do their own medical, drug tests, etc. I applied back then and started checking boards like this and no one was able to finish all that and get their clearances in that short amount of time so I think it is a little misleading to compare 2007 hirings to what may happen in 2008. On that note though, I would bet there are still the same or more people graduating from CTI schools and coming out of the military this year than last year.

[Johnsc81]

Originally Posted by berg1315

This was also before the PEPC process and everyone had to do their own medical, drug tests, etc. I applied back then and started checking boards like this and no one was able to finish all that and get their clearances in that short amount of time so I think it is a little misleading to compare 2007 hirings to what may happen in 2008. On that note though, I would bet there are still the same or more people graduating from CTI schools and coming out of the military this year than last year.

I know the available VRAs are going to be declining now..... Talking to all my buddies still in the military, nobody wants to get out right now. Expecially the Military controllers.... the word is getting around that the Pay in FAA is not what it used to be, and the benefits in the military are A WHOLE lot better. It is getting so bad that the FAA has started offering signing bonuses to Military controllers to come work for the FAA..... Same tactic the military used to employ just to get the controllers to stay away from the FAA...... I think our chances are a lot better than they were in the past........

[flyguy63]

They are planning on hiring 15,000 controllers over the next ten years.

[JKoffler44]

I was talking to an NATCA union rep the other day and he was telling me that everyone who applied to this last announcement has a serious chance of getting hired. He said a lot of people just simply drop out, or lie on their background check later, etc... He was saying the numbers needed to be hired are so great that as long as you stick around, you should be hired if you still want it.
Whether or not this is correct info., who knows...

[TennisPlayer]

Thats what I have gathered from my friends who are already controllers and have been for years. They said that they are needing more trainers to train all the trainees that the are expecting.