new 1500 hour rule and pilot pay

[embraer07]

Many of us at the part 135 company I work for have been talking about this and I am beginning to wonder.

Does anybody think that by having this federal law in place requiring all pilots to have their ATP(or ATP minimums, I'm sure) pay will increase?

I have always been of the mindset that airline management would never increase pay or do anything to hurt their profits at the top...

However, look at it this way. There will be a pilot shortage within the next few years. No dobut about it. Sallie mae and Bank of America are no longer providing training loans, and fewer people have the bank account to pay out of pocket anymore. Those that do probably choose not to when they take a look at the airline payscales. Who wants to invest upwards of $60,000 or more to start out making $16,000? Or even $22,000?

Plus, lets not forget all the Vietnam era pilots set to retire in large waves beginning in 2012, I think it is.

So there will be a shortage of pilots. In the past when there was a shortage airlines would decrease minimums rather than increase pay. So eventually some airlines would hire people with wet Commercials just so they didn't have to increase pay.

But now those days are over. There is a federal minimum on pilot experience. Airlines can't lower times closer and closer to 250 like they used to.

So what will they do to attract qualified pilots? What will happen when they don't have enough people to staff their aircraft? Could this mean that pilots will finally be paid a liveable wage??

Thoughts?

[kellwolf]

Until we find out what the guys already on the street plan on doing, it's probably not gonna change. We've got guys here at Pinnacle that came from Champion when it shut down, so management is gonna tell you there ARE people out there willing to work for peanuts. If they've got a stack of resumes on the desk, they're not gonna fiddle with wages. Now, if things start to dry up, THEN you might see management coming to unions with LOAs or whatnot. They MIGHT actually tweak work rules rather than wages, though.

[Socal321]

Pay will increase but not for anyone now I would say in a 5 to 10 years. The contracts are up for renewal but airlines still have a lot of leverage.

[at1024]

I'm waiting for someone to argue "there will never be another pilot shortage..."

[joliet]

It does not seem very wise to me to agree to a contract until after this legislation is passed.

If a contract were up now, it would make more sense to have it extended with some LOAs for QOL until about 2012.

[surreal1221]

There will never be a pilot shortage.

There will be a reduction in individuals who have the means (cash savings or dual income) or the ignorance (SJS, Gotta Fly a Jet @ 190/250 TT crowd) required to accept a job that pays so little initially.

But, there will never be a pilot shortage.

[Clocks]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Now, if things start to dry up

Nothing will change a penny until that happens. And whoooo knowwws when that'll be...

[PGT]

Well we need a good economy for hiring to start so it will be dependent on people's exposable income.

[wheelsup]

10 years ago the minimum time at my company was 2500 TT w/ I believe 1000 turbine. And they started out around $20/hr, compared to around $25 now. And they had plenty of applicants.

[embraer07]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

10 years ago the minimum time at my company was 2500 TT w/ I believe 1000 turbine. And they started out around $20/hr, compared to around $25 now. And they had plenty of applicants.

Was that the industry standard across the board or the average? I was nowhere near the industry back then so I couldn't say with any amount of certainty, but I have heard people who were hired by regionals 15 years ago with 800TT.

In any case, I think the state of the world and this country is different now. 10 years ago the economy was in much better shape than it is now. People are much less willing to spend money these days, hence less flight students. I don't see that changing much in the future. Of course I could be wrong....wouldn't be the first time.

The way I see it, it all comes down to ifs. If there really is a significant reduction in the number of flight students, and if there really is a significant reduction in people willing to spend nearly 100k to make 20k, and if people continue needing to fly.....

Then the wages will have to go up. But who knows...

[killbilly]

Originally Posted by PGT

Well we need a good economy for hiring to start so it will be dependent on people's exposable income.

You mean disposable income, right?

You're correct as far as discretionary travelers. Business travelers generally have to travel regardless of ticket price, because the cost of the ticket is still, not always, but usually, less than the price of not making the trip.

I had this theory a while back that as long as the barrier to entry to the airlines was kept high, the pay (or work rules) could improve for the pilots because the supply of the pilots would be - at least partially - artificially throttled. The gaping hole in that theory though, was that it would never hold up as long as carriers kept reducing their minimums. And I can remember a lot of hyperbole among posters on this very site saying that nothing would change until a couple of RJs were a smoking hole in the ground.

But with this new legislation and requiring ATP mins, what I think is that the movement will be there, but from the intermediate levels and up. The entry level (CFI, Banner Towing, Pipeline, etc) is going to be harder to get to, because pilots are going to stay in those jobs longer trying to build time.

I can't decide if it will be a boon or a bane to the 135 freight operators. I can see it going both ways.

You guys know more about this than I do. Educate me.

[PGT]

Flight training is at it's lowest in years
This 1500 hour rule will deter even more people
Age 65 coming due
People not accepting recalls
More mainline flying outsourced

Could be a shortage of regional pilots, how the airlines deal with that? no idea. Probably beg Congress for the MPL

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by PGT

Could be a shortage of regional pilots, how the airlines deal with that? no idea. Probably beg Congress for the MPL

And that's the key right there. If there IS a shortage of qualified pilots, it's gonna be at the regional level. We've already got plenty of guys toiling away at the regionals that would stab each other just to interview at a major.

[EDUC8-or]

When the majors start hiring again it's gonna get very interesting, especially at the companies that have been traditionally some of the worst places to work. You can't just lower your mins to a commercial ticket and a pulse any more to attract applicants.

I understand there are loopholes, but haven't taken time to carefully read the legislation.

[aloft]

They'll simply start offering hiring bonuses instead of raising pay.

[Alaska45]

Originally Posted by wheelsup

10 years ago the minimum time at my company was 2500 TT w/ I believe 1000 turbine. And they started out around $20/hr, compared to around $25 now. And they had plenty of applicants.

I think 10 years ago, at the major level, didn't pilots still receive a pension and have better pay scales? I'm just thinking that 10 years ago there may have been more motivation for pilots wanting to pursue a career in the airlines to reach those mins for a start at $20 hr.

[Clocks]

Originally Posted by aloft

They'll simply start offering hiring bonuses instead of raising pay.

Not if the unions have anything to do with it.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by aloft

They'll simply start offering hiring bonuses instead of raising pay.

Like Clocks said, this one won't really fly. 9E did it for a while until the union grieved it saying they were changing the compensation section without union approval. Basically, if you give it to one pilot, all should get it. So, if the company starts handing out hiring bonuses, those that didn't get one when hired, should get retro. Needless to say, hiring bonuses won't be part of the equation again here unless there's union approval. Good luck with that one without giving us something good in return.

[A-300F4-622R]

Originally Posted by PGT

Flight training is at it's lowest in years
This 1500 hour rule will deter even more people
Age 65 coming due
People not accepting recalls
More mainline flying outsourced

Could be a shortage of regional pilots, how the airlines deal with that? no idea. Probably beg Congress for the MPL

Back in the day, when regional mins where up to 2500 hrs, there was no shortage of applicants.The new pilots will just have to do what pilots did before the last regional hiring wave, CFI for an extended period, fly charter, fly 135 freight or other non 121 flying in order to get their 1500 hrs. The instant gratification generation will, no doubt, be put off by having to "pay your dues", but the industry will be better off because of it.

[wheelsup]

Originally Posted by A-300F4-622R

Back in the day, when regional mins where up to 2500 hrs, there was no shortage of applicants.The new pilots will just have to do what pilots did before the last regional hiring wave, CFI for an extended period, fly charter, fly 135 freight or other non 121 flying in order to get their 1500 hrs. The instant gratification generation will, no doubt, be put off by having to "pay your dues", but the industry will be better off because of it.

I agree; this doesn't change a thing as far as pilot supply goes. When I was doing my private in 99, my instructors worked for 2 years to go to 135 or to a crappy commuter like Bisex or ASA.

[Joe Gremlin]

Originally Posted by embraer07

In any case, I think the state of the world and this country is different now. 10 years ago the economy was in much better shape than it is now. People are much less willing to spend money these days, hence less flight students.

Hence fewer airline passengers as well, unless they can keep ticket prices in check. I'm not going to tell you that there won't be a pilot shortage. But I am going to tell you that so long as there jets, and so long as those jets are shiny, there will also be an endless line of schmucks who will gladly sell their souls to the devil for a chance at real live airline pilot stardom. And if the devil ain't buyin' souls this week, they'll find someone who will. Or they'll sell plasma, or they'll sell crack or anything else they can get their hands on.

And keep in mind as well that bankers want to make money. So even if Sally and Fanny and Freddy never give another loan to a flight student, someone is going to see that market potential for what it is and gladly offer to fill it.

[surreal1221]

Fanny and Freddy, to my knowledge, never provided private loans directed at flight training.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by surreal1221

Fanny and Freddy, to my knowledge, never provided private loans directed at flight training.

Good thing. After ATA, TAB Express and Jet U pulling their stunts, the economy would be so bad off we'd be begging the Chinese for rice.

[wheelsup]

Chinese rice is toxic, we grow a lot of our own rice here in the states believe it or not.

[Trip7]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

And that's the key right there. If there IS a shortage of qualified pilots, it's gonna be at the regional level. We've already got plenty of guys toiling away at the regionals that would stab each other just to interview at a major.

Completely agree. There won't be shortage at the majors. There will be a severe shortage at the regionals. At the very least, FO pay will have to be raised. Crap 1st year pay will be a thing of the past. Best of all, the Unions wont all raising of FO pay without raising everybody's pay.