More Unsubstantiated Southernjets Rumors

[Doug Taylor]

(standard disclaimers apply)

- >$100M profit this quarter. $300M hedge gain this qtr. Hedges on the books are worth $1.5 - 2B over the next 3 yrs.

- double-digit growth (?), and we will price our product to make a profit. We have been the industry leader in price hikes, and are at 103-104% industry average in RASM.

- goal is 50/50 domestic/int'l ASM's.

- 100 RJ's will go away this year.

- cargo revenue to grow 20-25% - we hired several cargo gurus away from United.

- Maintenance Repair/Overhaul outside business - $500M revenue this year, up to $1B in 3-5 yrs.

- Delta Conn. Academy will go away.

- JFK - working with the Port Authority to pay $2B for new terminals. We want the west leg of Terminal 4, while Terminal 3 is demolished.

- Fleet - 20-25 777's. One delivery in Dec, Jan, and Feb.

- 20-25 737-700's. Will get 7 (?) by the end of the year.

- still looking at MD-90's, especially from China Southern. Very cheap compared to new 737's.

- remaining 8 domestic 767-400's to be converted to international.

- could see 747-400's to So. America out of ATL. Will not grow that fleet. Int'l growth will be 777's and 787's.

- A-319's - would work well in CVG -> west coast markets.

- DC-9-30's -going away. We'll keep the -40's and -50's 'til at least 2012.

- 787's - not happy with Boeing. Thinks the airplane will be overweight/underperform (think MD-11), and Boeing's gonna owe us big bucks.

[AUAeropilot]

- Delta Conn. Academy will go away.

So much for being wholly owned meaning everything.

- 787's - not happy with Boeing. Thinks the airplane will be overweight/underperform (think MD-11), and Boeing's gonna owe us big bucks.

This has been a big issue for DL. We were going to wait and play our hand for the -8/-9 variant, but now it appears as though we may not want to lose these delivery slots that NWA had. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the political maneuvering that'll be done by both sides.

Who knows, maybe the white tail 777-200LR simulator we just got in OC3, that was originally a 777-300ER simulator, might return to be used for its original intent because of this.

Disclaimer: I know nothing about any possible -300ER considerations, just a fleeting thought.

[N826AW]

747s in Delta colors. That's gonna be a sight to see.

[Maximillian_Jenius]

Originally Posted by N826AW

747s in Delta colors. That's gonna be a sight to see.

. . .oh, it's been done before!

[Nick]

Originally Posted by Maximillian_Jenius

. . .oh, it's been done before!

And when it is done again, it will never look as good as that other paint scheme.

[coa787]

Originally Posted by Maximillian_Jenius

. . .oh, it's been done before!

Yeah, but not on the -400.

[coa787]

Originally Posted by Nick

And when it is done again, it will never look as good as that other paint scheme.

I don't know, I kinda like the new Delta livery better. At first, I thought it looked like crap, but it has grown on me since then.

[Nick]

Originally Posted by coa787

I don't know, I kinda like the new Delta livery better. At first, I thought it looked like crap, but it has grown on me since then.

The MD-88/90 tail is not big enough to make the logo look good. The RJ tails are even worse, in my opinion anyway. The new widget logo looks great on the 757-767-777 tails though.

I still like the italicized DELTA with the widget icon at the front of the plane the best.


As far as the rumots go, I thought it was interesting that before NWA announced their additional fall fleet reduction, the total number of DC-9s at the end of this year was going to be 58. After they announced the fleet reduction that includes 757s and Airbuses, the DC-9 end of year projection went UP to 61. They really must have a plan for those things, and I suspect it will replace quite a bit of RJ flying.

One of the Delta network planning guys was apparently quoted as saying they will be deployed at ATL.

I wonder if they will keep them around until ordering something like the Bombardier C-series.

[surreal1221]

Originally Posted by Nick

And when it is done again, it will never look as good as that other paint scheme.

Amen to that. . .AMEN.

Bring the Widget (the CLASSIC Widget, not the rounded corner ########) back. But of course, I don't want them wasting damn money on re-painting a whole ####load of planes again. Enough is enough, stick with something for more than 3 years.

----

100 RJ's gone this year. Okay, RJ's. . .that include the ones they have already removed from service?

[Doug Taylor]

I like "the original" myself too. Retro is the new haute couture.

But on the parking of the RJ's issue, I have no idea. Personally, I doubt it will be that many, but I have nothing to base my doubt on.

[coa787]

Originally Posted by Nick

As far as the rumots go, I thought it was interesting that before NWA announced their additional fall fleet reduction, the total number of DC-9s at the end of this year was going to be 58. After they announced the fleet reduction that includes 757s and Airbuses, the DC-9 end of year projection went UP to 61. They really must have a plan for those things, and I suspect it will replace quite a bit of RJ flying.

I can't imagine that NWA will continue to use the DC-9. Their DC93s, as well as their DC94s, are averaging around 40 years. They should most likely use the DC95s, but even those are at the service limits. An airliner airframe usually has a 30-year service life.

[surreal1221]

Followed a NWA DC9 heading into DHN yesterday evening.

Any idea what they got going on down there? Seemed like a row of them, but didn't bother to get a glance on the takeoff roll coming out in the morning - obviously a bit occupied with more pressing matters.

[B757plt2B]

Originally Posted by Doug Taylor

(standard disclaimers apply)

Is it bad that I look forward to these posts???

[MQAAord]

Originally Posted by B757plt2B

Is it bad that I look forward to these posts???

Entertainment value

[JEP]

Originally Posted by coa787

I can't imagine that NWA will continue to use the DC-9. Their DC93s, as well as their DC94s, are averaging around 40 years. They should most likely use the DC95s, but even those are at the service limits. An airliner airframe usually has a 30-year service life.

The main reason is simple.....The dc9's unlike many of their other a/c have been paid for, for quite some time....

When the airlines are hurting for $$$ and they have a 'paid for' plane that works, it doesn't make a great deal of sense to get rid of them....

[coa787]

Originally Posted by JEP

The main reason is simple.....The dc9's unlike many of their other a/c have been paid for, for quite some time....

When the airlines are hurting for $$$ and they have a 'paid for' plane that works, it doesn't make a great deal of sense to get rid of them....

Yeah... I guess you're right. I just never thought of it that way. I mean, most airlines retire their aircraft after about 20 to 25 years, so... yeah.

[Nick]

Originally Posted by coa787

I can't imagine that NWA will continue to use the DC-9. Their DC93s, as well as their DC94s, are averaging around 40 years. They should most likely use the DC95s, but even those are at the service limits. An airliner airframe usually has a 30-year service life.

I don't know where you get the 30 year number from.

Almost every single DC-9 that NWA has sent to the desert in the past few years was over the age of 30. A few of them were more than 40!

Some have actually been retired because they reached the maximum number of pressurization cycles on the airframe (one flight leg is one cycle). When that is reached the airplane is done. I forget the cycle limits on the DC-9 variants but like other types, it is in the tens of thousands.

UPS has DC-8s that are more than 30, FDX with 727s and DC-10s, etc.

[Cptnchia]

Lets not forget the venerable "BUFF" which is now being flown by the grandsons of the men who first flew them.

[ZapBrannigan]

The 9 was a fantastic airplane. (I have around 2000 hours in them). Nothing on it ever broke. There was nothing TO brake. All the flight controls were piano cable. (The rudder had a hydraulic component to it). No fancy avionics or computers to fail on a cold morning. Great machine and will always be the finest aircraft i've ever had the pleasure to fly.

If they're paid for, they should continue to run them. Douglas knew how to build airplanes. Not like these disposable Brazilian jets you see darkening the sky everywhere.

[Nick]

Originally Posted by surreal1221

Followed a NWA DC9 heading into DHN yesterday evening.

Any idea what they got going on down there? Seemed like a row of them, but didn't bother to get a glance on the takeoff roll coming out in the morning - obviously a bit occupied with more pressing matters.

That is where they retire a bunch of them. I am not sure what happens next as far as deconstruction and so forth but Dothan is where they sent some of the DC-9-10s.

[coa787]

Originally Posted by Nick

I don't know where you get the 30 year number from.

I heard it a while ago, not really sure where. I think it was meant for an airliner's airframe in general, based on some average number of flights.

[Seggy]

DC-9 = man's airplane

[High_Alpha]

Originally Posted by Seggy

DC-9 = man's airplane

Amen.

[germb747]

The L-1011s are being pulled out of the desert and returned to revenue service in September.