Wow... United and US Airways to Merge

[WacoFan]

Originally Posted by PCL_128

And what a glorious day that will be!

I think you should start shopping for a new avatar...if this deal happens USAPA is toast.

Seriously though...does anyone here see a UAL/USAir merger working out well? AWA and USAir are still not "merged" and the pilot groups hate each other. What is going to happen now...with three distinct groups? Also...USAPA couldn't have come at a better time - piss off ALPA two weeks before you are going to merge and become ALPA again...exceptional timing. Didn't the east guys read the news? Consolidation talk has been rampant for months, and conventional wisdom says that if USAir consolidated it would be with an ALPA carrier. I am not sure a lot of thought went into USAPA. How much did the east pilots waste on USAPA - set up, legal, vote? What punitive action can United ALPA take in the SLI process. Can they single out USAPA east guys and take care of west? This will be incredibly interesting.

[Airdale]

We're all going to be stuck at a Regional for possibly the next 5 years or more after Merger-mania goes away and the dust settles from a crappy economy. I hope the mainline guys keep us Regional pilots in mind when they are negotiating their "scope". Because if they put the axe to thousands of Regional pilot jobs, than we're all on the street with no where to go. There will be such a huge surplus of pilots on the street that literally thousands of careers will be damaged. It sounds easy to say "Let mainline get their scope back" , but that will be the end to thousands of careers. There wouldn't be enough mainline jobs to bring half of the pilots on the street back to work. It would effect everyone at a Regional. Think about it

[KLB]

If the mainline pilots take the flying back from the regionals, Seggy, FlyinChicaga, and the like get an opportunity to move up to cover all of the new flying. The only rub is that they will be competing for these jobs with all of the pilots from the companies that have gone under lately. It wouldn't happen over night though. IMO

[BobDDuck]

Dave, if the majors "take scope back" where do you think all those pilots that are needed to fill the new planes are going to come from? They are going to be the senior guys on your seniority list. They'll move on and you'll move up. That's how it's supposed to work.

I would seriously love to see Airways knock the scope back down to 70 seats. Hell, I'd like to see it back down to 50 seats. Does that mean that you (and maybe us) and several other companies are going to either have to remove seats or ground planes? Yep. Does it mean you may lose your job? It could. But that's the cost of doing business when you don't own your flying.

[WestIndian425]

Originally Posted by meyers9163

I dont know anything about those.... but first thing would be are they fuel efficient and then secondly are people paying actually what the service is worth? If so I bet they are alright.... But too many people pay far too little for their airfare.... I mean hell even myself and my lady going to Cancun in June is going to cost me a little. For a little more my cousins are going for nearly the same (and i work at an airline wtf). All I am paying is international fees.... think i'm kidding? not at all... its messed up!

That is messed up! I guess with the falling dollar and the competing for "market share" (that doesn't mean profits), you'll find crazy stuff like that. So in other words, most people pay the taxes, or just above. No wonder Spirit has thest $8, $.99, and other crazy fares!

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Today, US Airways, tomorrow.....THE WORLD! MWUHAHAHAHA!

<cue creepy castle and music>

Pinky and the Brain...

[Velocipede]

Bob is right. IF (and that's a BIG if) the mainliners ever managed to get their scope back, all those RJ drivers would be working for mainline carriers. Not as Captains, but still employed. Someone has to drive the planes.

[Airdale]

Originally Posted by Velocipede

Bob is right. IF (and that's a BIG if) the mainliners ever managed to get their scope back, all those RJ drivers would be working for mainline carriers. Not as Captains, but still employed. Someone has to drive the planes.

IF that were the case, I'd be all for it. I just don't see it going down like that, IF they did tighten the scope clauses. If they had some sort of agreement to hire the RJ guys flying those birds onto the mainline carrier, I'd literally be a happy pig in muddy poo. I picture it going more like "Yeah, we want those aircraft back and let the company deal with hiring pilots for them". That would create more jobs at mainline yes, but the number of pilots that would be out of work would leave half of them still on the street. I just don't want to wish ill fate on my own job. I actually work for a decent company that just happens to have a base at home which just happens to allow me the opportunity to sit reserve and make some side cash with my father in law. What more could a guy ask for!?

It would be awesome if mainline pilots said bring the aircraft and those pilots up to their company, but thats a far far fetched dream. Have an Airways seniority # and be based in PHL....yeah!

[BobDDuck]

It doesn't work that way. Hence the whole, if you don't own your flying you ain't ####.

So what, you don't go with the airplane. In fact, ask the Mid Titanic guys about that (that's how you GOT those planes in the first place). A 175 flown at a mainline carrier is going to require the same number of pilots as it does at a regional. In fact, it may require a few more because they have better work rules and staffing models then the regionals do.

So there wouldn't be a bunch of pilots on the street. Your captains would move up into FO slots (and have to start all over) and you would move up to captain. That's the way it works. You can't magically not want it to happen because you'd eventually have to start over.

Hell, I fly for a company that IS owned by a mainline carrier and sort of do own our own flying and WE can't even get mainline numbers.

[Airdale]

Originally Posted by BobDDuck

It doesn't work that way. Hence the whole, if you don't own your flying you ain't ####.

So what, you don't go with the airplane. In fact, ask the Mid Titanic guys about that (that's how you GOT those planes in the first place). A 175 flown at a mainline carrier is going to require the same number of pilots as it does at a regional. In fact, it may require a few more because they have better work rules and staffing models then the regionals do.

So there wouldn't be a bunch of pilots on the street. Your captains would move up into FO slots (and have to start all over) and you would move up to captain. That's the way it works. You can't magically not want it to happen because you'd eventually have to start over.

Hell, I fly for a company that IS owned by a mainline carrier and sort of do own our own flying and WE can't even get mainline numbers.

Well thats my point. Is that, yeah it would eventually be a great thing, but the number of pilots and their families affected would be great as well. In a years time, I wouldn't have the time requirements to get hired at mainline. So those of us that are trying to build that time would in turn lose our jobs unless our company brought on smaller airplanes. Which I really wouldn't care. I didn't come here to fly a particular aircraft. If that were the case, I'd of went overseas and flown the big metal for what they are begging for.

If Captains moved up to mainline as FO's, than how would us FO's become Captains on equipment that needs to be sold? This is confusing.

[KLB]

Your company would have to be able to adapt and serve whatever needs the mainline's needs. If that means buying smaller and more efficient aircraft to serve those needs...so be it.

I believe there will be a drastic change in the role that the regional airline plays. It's just to many companies serving the same markets for one merged mainline. They can just put a larger aircraft on those routes and save money. Scope is not going to allow any larger aircraft to go to the regional. So the mainline guys will get the flying and the regionals will go back to the commuter role doing short trips feeding the hubs rather than some of the domestic type flights.

It's actually really good for the industry if you look at the big picture.

[kellwolf]

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

[meyers9163]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

YUP YUP! Well said Steve. Lets hope some of my young fellow FO's and stubborn young regional CA's might pay attention. Matter of fact I think Menards might pay better. Might make a little money if I got furloughed and later hired ! But again well said!

[KLB]

These days you could make a really good living as a CFI while waiting to get back into the regionall game if furloughed!

[PCL_128]

Originally Posted by WacoFan

I think you should start shopping for a new avatar...if this deal happens USAPA is toast.

I look forward to that day.

I am not sure a lot of thought went into USAPA.

I nominate this for understatement of the year.

What punitive action can United ALPA take in the SLI process. Can they single out USAPA east guys and take care of west? This will be incredibly interesting.

You can bet that they'll be scheming pretty hard to figure out how to best position themselves to screw the East pilots. Remember, this isn't the first time that UAL pilots have been pissed off at AAA pilots. UAL had to get the ALPA Merger Policy changed because AAA pilots were talking about stapling UAL pilots and taking their widebody flying during the last two merger talks in the '90s and '00s. The East guys have been consistently insane when it comes to SLI. I guarantee the UAL pilots will take great joy in pushing as many East pilots to the bottom of the seniority list as possible.

Originally Posted by BobDDuck

Dave, if the majors "take scope back" where do you think all those pilots that are needed to fill the new planes are going to come from? They are going to be the senior guys on your seniority list. They'll move on and you'll move up. That's how it's supposed to work.

I would seriously love to see Airways knock the scope back down to 70 seats. Hell, I'd like to see it back down to 50 seats. Does that mean that you (and maybe us) and several other companies are going to either have to remove seats or ground planes? Yep. Does it mean you may lose your job? It could. But that's the cost of doing business when you don't own your flying.

[WestIndian425]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

Kell makes an excellent point. I like the backup plan as well. It's also good to have a background other than aviation during your college years.

[kellwolf]

Originally Posted by WestIndian425

Kell makes an excellent point. I like the backup plan as well. It's also good to have a background other than aviation during your college years.

Oh man. I'd rather shovel giraffe poop or feed slender loris than go back to working as a cook at Chili's.

[Baradium]

Originally Posted by Airdale

Well thats my point. Is that, yeah it would eventually be a great thing, but the number of pilots and their families affected would be great as well. In a years time, I wouldn't have the time requirements to get hired at mainline. So those of us that are trying to build that time would in turn lose our jobs unless our company brought on smaller airplanes. Which I really wouldn't care. I didn't come here to fly a particular aircraft. If that were the case, I'd of went overseas and flown the big metal for what they are begging for.

If Captains moved up to mainline as FO's, than how would us FO's become Captains on equipment that needs to be sold? This is confusing.

More pilots aren't going to magically appear... if this happened, the mins at majors would drop accordingly to put the pilots in seats.

[Baradium]

Originally Posted by Airdale

We're all going to be stuck at a Regional for possibly the next 5 years or more after Merger-mania goes away and the dust settles from a crappy economy. I hope the mainline guys keep us Regional pilots in mind when they are negotiating their "scope". Because if they put the axe to thousands of Regional pilot jobs, than we're all on the street with no where to go. There will be such a huge surplus of pilots on the street that literally thousands of careers will be damaged. It sounds easy to say "Let mainline get their scope back" , but that will be the end to thousands of careers. There wouldn't be enough mainline jobs to bring half of the pilots on the street back to work. It would effect everyone at a Regional. Think about it

I don't understand how a single mainline pilot can be twice as productive while working less. Think about it...

In your case, they'd need more pilots if smaller planes were moved to majors. It'd be the best thing possible for the industry.

Today's large RJs are about the size of a small mainline bird (and smaller than the ones of old). If similiar sized planes were put in place they'd need more pilots than with RJs working 100 hours a month. So your career would be much better.

Sure you'd have to go through a transition, but it's not like suddenly fewer planes would fly...

[Maurus]

Originally Posted by tonyw

Well, maybe American will but not Continental.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1209...hps_us_pageone

Abruptly ending talks with United Airlines parent UAL Corp., Continental Airlines Inc. said it would stay independent for the time being despite efforts by rival carriers to merge.

The Houston-based airline didn't disclose details of talks in its statement late Sunday and didn't name potential partners. But its move was seen as a rebuke to Chicago-based UAL, which has been trying to interest Continental in a marriage for years.

UAL had recently entered formal merger talks with Continental, said people familiar with the matter, giving UAL the impression that it had the inside track on striking a deal with one of the U.S. industry's healthiest carriers.

In a bulletin to employees, Continental Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner said Continental has "significant cultural, operational and financial strengths" that "would be placed at risk in a merger with another carrier in today's environment."

As far as United and US Airways goes, it didn't pass muster the first time, so why do they think it will the second time around? And why would US Airways be so stupid as to try to undertake a new merger when they are nowhere near close to realizing the synergies they thought they'd see from the first one?

I just said that as a response to this merger fad. I never said it actually would happen nor had any information to back it up.

[WestIndian425]

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Oh man. I'd rather shovel giraffe poop or feed slender loris than go back to working as a cook at Chili's.

Well I'm sure CFI'ing could be an option.

[Airdale]

Originally Posted by Baradium

More pilots aren't going to magically appear... if this happened, the mins at majors would drop accordingly to put the pilots in seats.

Hmm, last time I checked a LOT of pilots magically appeared. Remember Skybus, ATA, Aloha etc. I'm sure we'll be adding more pilots to that list too before this down swing hits bottom.

Originally Posted by kellwolf

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

I understand how it is good for the industry. More mainline jobs....just so you can be furloughed in 5 years because the attrition rate is minimal right? And then hope to get a J4J job with a company flying something other than a prop while you await recall, because you're a "Mainline" pilot, God forbid you have to go back to flying anything with props. Those are for boats anyway. I get it I get it.

Still though, what about those folks who don't get hired by the Majors? And who's Regional employer doesn't exsist or reduced capacity so much because of a scope clause? They would have to start all over again at another Regional...OR just go work for a Skybus or JetBlue.

My point is, that mainline pilots SCREWED up when they scoped these airplanes out and they would SCREW UP again if they tried to scope them back in. There is no way they could modify the scope clause without causing major heartache for many across the industry. But I guess as long as it is good for the industry, it doesn't matter how many people get slaughtered along the way. Kind of like the Iraq war.

I see how it adds mainline jobs, but it does nothing more than make the "good ole boys club" a bit larger.

[SmitteyB]

They made a mistake, Dale.

If someone came up to you and said, "Hey we'll give you big raises and bigger airplanes if you give us some scope concessions". You'd prob say hell yes!

[Airdale]

Originally Posted by SmitteyB

They made a mistake, Dale.

If someone came up to you and said, "Hey we'll give you big raises and bigger airplanes if you give us some scope concessions". You'd prob say hell yes!

I'm not arguing that fact. To be honest with you, its not like its a huge sin. I mean really, 90% of all pilots only care about themselves, and pulling the ladder up behind them certainly wasn't a bad thing for them. After all, they were offered a good deal and an opportunity to tighten their ranks.

I'm arguing the fact that trying to reverse that mistake, is going to create a mess. They should leave the scope where it is, and focus on their carriers growth, contracts (PAY) and international flying. If Legacy pilots fought to bring back the pay and work rules that once existed, then maybe there would be a lot more of us reaching for that ladder.

[mattp1803]

Originally Posted by Maximillian_Jenius

brand X, brand y, brand Z!

YES! I couldn't quite remember his name. Brand X is right! I guess he is back with a new s/n...

[BobDDuck]

Dave, I'm not picking on you... but THAT mentality is the single biggest problem the industry faces right now. It isn't USAPA. It isn't Skywest not unionizing. It's not the merger mania. It's guys at the regional level who are willing to fly bigger and bigger planes because they don't want to start over again.

For many people there is nothing wrong with making a career at a regional, as long as you understand the constraints that need to be placed there. But for many people they want the major pay/plane size/quality of life with out having to take any of the risk associated with making the jump. That ain't right.