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Originally Posted by PCL_128  I think that's a little overly pessimistic, and that's saying a lot, since I'm pretty pessimistic lately. DAL managed to re-negotiate their -88 leases down to $80k/mo. That's barely more than a 50-seat RJ lease. AMR could probably do better if they enter bankruptcy now. I can see them getting rid of maybe a third of their -80s, but not anywhere close to all of them. An -80 is a much better platform for most markets than a 70-seat RJ if you can get the lease costs down. |
It is pessimistic and I really hope that it doesn't happen. I agree that they could negotiate the lease rates lower while waiting to procure more efficient aircraft. That will depend on the leasors of course. The MD-80 is still somewhat marketable in the third world so the leasors can always try for more money elsewhere.
The newer MD-80s came off the line in 1998/99 and were for TWA. Those are still at American as far as I know. The oldest ones were 1980 vintage and are probably gone already. So they probably range between 10 and 20+ years of age wth an average age close to 18 or more. That's getting pretty old with intendant high maintenance costs. They really need to re-equip the fleet sooner rather than later.
The MD-80 burns 1000 lbs. an hour more than a 737. At $4.00/gallon that is a monthly difference of close to $180,000 in direct operating cost based on 300 hours of flying time. So it would be cheaper to lease a 737NG for $250,000 a month than an MD-80 for $80,000/month. Of course I have no idea what the real lease numbers are, but you can see it would need to be pretty significant to make an argument for keeping the -80s.
Typhoonpilot