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typhoonpilot · July 15th, 2008, 22:12

Talking to my brother today ( retired AA ) I would guess that AA will enter bankruptcy by the second quarter of next year, if not earlier. They really need to lose all 300 remaining MD-80s and get rid of their inefficient regional jets ( under 50 seats ). That would entail way more than 200 furloughs. I would be worried if I was in the bottom 3000 at AA.

The way I see it AA will be unable to compete with the MD-80s and the small RJs. They need newer, more efficient, narrowbodies and bigger RJs. They do have some 737-800s coming, but not enough and not fast enough. To my knowledge they have no big RJs in the pipeline. That is a huge mistake and will cost them dearly.

The U.S. domestic flying market is going to become one of mostly large RJs with mainline narrowbodies fitting into the larger markets. If one is with a large RJ operator then they should be okay. If one works for a small RJ operator with no orders for the larger RJs they should be very worried. If one is in the bottom third of a major airline seniority list they should be very worried.

People don't want to hear this, but it's best to be prepared for it because it's coming.

Over 6 months ago I predicted on this forum that the Expressjet branded flying would disappear in the near future and nobody wanted to hear that either.

In regards to Eagle flowbacks, I sat next to an Eagle Captain ( roughly 11 years seniority ) on the way to DFW a few weeks ago. He said the flowback deal is finished so it isn't going to happen again. He also said some of the flowbacks declined recall. I can't remember exactly how it works, but I think they then go to where their Eagle seniority will hold, which is right seat of the ERJ. Seemed odd to me, but apparently these guys were betting exactly correct. Even a right seat job on the ERJ is better than no job when they get furloughed from AA again. With roughly 7 years seniority they are pretty senior First Officers and have a chance to upgrade in a few years ( depending how Eagle gets restructured in the bankruptcy that's coming ).

Typhoonpilot

July 15th, 2008, 22:12	#12
typhoonpilot Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Dubai, UAE Posts: 480	Re: Well, that sucks (American Airlines) Talking to my brother today ( retired AA ) I would guess that AA will enter bankruptcy by the second quarter of next year, if not earlier. They really need to lose all 300 remaining MD-80s and get rid of their inefficient regional jets ( under 50 seats ). That would entail way more than 200 furloughs. I would be worried if I was in the bottom 3000 at AA. The way I see it AA will be unable to compete with the MD-80s and the small RJs. They need newer, more efficient, narrowbodies and bigger RJs. They do have some 737-800s coming, but not enough and not fast enough. To my knowledge they have no big RJs in the pipeline. That is a huge mistake and will cost them dearly. The U.S. domestic flying market is going to become one of mostly large RJs with mainline narrowbodies fitting into the larger markets. If one is with a large RJ operator then they should be okay. If one works for a small RJ operator with no orders for the larger RJs they should be very worried. If one is in the bottom third of a major airline seniority list they should be very worried. People don't want to hear this, but it's best to be prepared for it because it's coming. Over 6 months ago I predicted on this forum that the Expressjet branded flying would disappear in the near future and nobody wanted to hear that either. In regards to Eagle flowbacks, I sat next to an Eagle Captain ( roughly 11 years seniority ) on the way to DFW a few weeks ago. He said the flowback deal is finished so it isn't going to happen again. He also said some of the flowbacks declined recall. I can't remember exactly how it works, but I think they then go to where their Eagle seniority will hold, which is right seat of the ERJ. Seemed odd to me, but apparently these guys were betting exactly correct. Even a right seat job on the ERJ is better than no job when they get furloughed from AA again. With roughly 7 years seniority they are pretty senior First Officers and have a chance to upgrade in a few years ( depending how Eagle gets restructured in the bankruptcy that's coming ). Typhoonpilot