[Velocipede]

Steve,

I guess its just my background as a military/civil aircraft accident investigator. You should NEVER speculate on the cause of an aircraft accident without SOME evidential justification.

Because early speculation usually proves false and some guys tend to get married to their theory, ignoring other evidence

Whenever I see someone speculate on the cause of an aircraft accident based on the evidence you had at the time, it only reinforces their lack of credibility.

Nothing personal, mind you, but professional aviators know better than to go down that road.