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Originally Posted by tonyw  You know, you lose a lot of credibility when you say something like that and you've got so many organizations saying something completely different.
Not even the most ardent green says we'll run out of oil? http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/20...andpetrol.news
I don't know if a guy who worked for BP, ChevronTexaco and Exxon qualifies as an "ardent green" but he says that while we don't have to worry about it for a long time, we WILL run out of it.
We won't run out tomorrow, or next year, or next decade, or maybe even the next century. But sooner or later, there will be no more oil. It is a finite resource and it is being depleted. |
Tony,
I got 2 jobs, one I own an import export firm, 2nd I am an airline pilot. Both of these depend on cheap fuel, so I guess I am bothered by $129 oil.
Even still, both of these industries are reaping the benefits from cheap oil that hovered around $12-15 throughout most of the 90s. However, GLOBAL DEMAND (china, india etc) is starting to outstrip the supply. When production peaks, we will be faced with higher and higher fuel costs until demands drops (recession or depression). The world economy will not just accept these consequences and keep using oil until every drop is gone. It will be have to be replaced. In other words, the point is NOT WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OIL (no need to argue a point some can not grasp), But rather WHEN WILL OIL NOT RUN OUR ECONOMY.
So if that is what you mean by running out of OIL, then I would say yes it could happen very soon.
Now for the airline industry the best thing would be for a change of infrastructure globally. Plug in hybrids and bio fuels for cars would allow for other sources of energy to share the load.
As far as jet fuel goes, there is always man made oil (biomass into crude oil via thermal depolymerization), Fischer Tropsch process fuel (ersatz jetfuel that ran nazi jets right up to VE day.) BIOdiesel blends and other possibilities that can help alleviate the crisis.
The problem is a lack of infrastucture, and until that is fixed, look for a roller coaster ride in the airlines. And as for hedging? If all tee price pressures are upward, who will underwrite a hedge at any reasonable price? Hopefully the next president will get serious about Energy policy, or we will have tough tough times.
PS Oil is now be manufactured (limited infrastructure)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization