Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyw  I don't know how anyone can claim they're having an honest and informative discussion on oil if they don't accept the premise that there is a finite amount of oil.
There is not an infinite supply of oil like some people have suggested here. There's not an infinite supply of ANYTHING! |
Your logic is faulty in this case.
Making the assertion "we will never run out of oil" , is not the same as suggestion it is infinite.
First of all the question when will we "run out of oil", is nonsense. NOBODY from any perspective, oil companies or even the most ardent green with have a lick of sense talks about "running out of oil".
With current tech, depending on the field oil is economically recoverable in the 30-40% range. There will be a lot left in the ground, when the real question occurs.
When do we run out of cheap oil? OR At what price point do we switch to other sources?
Their are plenty of other sources and processes, renewable and nonrenewable available. THE PROBLEM IS INFRASTRUCTURE! Supposably oil shale, tar sands and coal liquidfication are viable at the $55-75 levels.
But where oh where is the infrastructure for that??
Bottom line, fuel will be expensives for the aviation industry unless the global demand subsides, or we make the transition to different infrastructure.
One more thing Tony, for the record petroleum can be manufactured from biomass, relatively cheaply. Just like man can now make diamonds...