Right now, the high cost of avgas no doubt keeps a LOT of folks from even starting down the road. We're already to the point where an hour of avgas costs more than I used to pay for a 150 wet during my training. Without that starter pool of candidates, the military is going to be the only source there is. And with them scaling back manning, even THAT won't last long.
At that point, I
firmly believe that you'll see a HUGE correction in pilot pay. Right now, they can get folks to sign up, hire on, and do the job for peanuts--mainly because the cost to get there, though high, wasn't a show stopper for folks. Some guys, as we talk about on here, will even pay for a job, or take a crappy job or compensation package just to be able to say "I'm an airline pilot."
BUT--as the cost to get there gets higher, less and less people will bother with it. May be "cool," but not economically feasible. Then, in top whipsaw fashion, the pay will go back up--a lot. Question is, will it happen while I'm still able to enjoy it?!?!?!?
