Seems like alot of what-ifs to me, but you do seem to have a point: It is a guessing game to an extent.
For those AE guy's sake, I hope you are right about those specific what-ifs. They certainly seem to deserve it.
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The question is are you willing to roll the dice either way?
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I would rather move to 3 different regionals in as many years than stay working in my "CUBE" as an Excel Jockey. Of course, I would MUCH rather be at one and a Captain on an EMB-170 in 3 years, which I have noticed HAS happened, but I am not banking on anything. I just wanna fly man! hehe.